Players and prospects most likely to get dealt this winter and why

[RZNJ]

1. Connor Norby -  Just a guess but he ended the season great and his value should be on the rise.   The only problem.   The Orioles have a ton of depth at 2B and Norby is limited to 2B.   He's played a few games in LF and there's always 1B.    He has a below average arm and is reportedly "okay" at 2B.    The biggest question is if the Orioles keep him, where does he fit in?  While he might increase his value even more next year, it should be pretty high right now.   Could go in a package deal for and established ML player.

2. Jorge Mateo -  Elias is saying things which make it seem likely that Mateo would start next year at SS and the stolen base might become more important next year and his range at SS might become more important next year.   Hmmmm.   This is a tough one.   But Mateo is gone if the Orioles decide they want franchise player II, Gunnar Henderson at SS.   He also MIGHT be cone if they decide they want future plus defender Joey Ortiz at SS.    Does the Orioles future IF contain all three of Henderson, Westburg, and Ortiz?    If so, how soon does it happen.   Trading Mateo is risky.   I seem to be talking myself out of it but there is still enough to make me think it could happen.

3. Ryan Mountcastle -  The stats say Mountcastle was unlucky.  But the wall is the wall and that had something to do with his bad luck and it's still going to be here next year.   While I think Mountcastle probably comes back, he might go in the right deal.

4. Austin Hays -  See #3.  16 home runs this year.  Not good.

5. Colton Cowser -  This is a tough one.  He's a top 100 prospect.   He did some great things this year.   He also struck out a lot more than you'd like to see.   Do the Orioles think Cowser develops into a 20-30 homer player who hits .280 plus or is he going to be a player who strikeouts keep him from being that guy?     The fact is that Cowser is another top 100 guy with a lot of value.  But if Hays, Stowers, Mulllins, and Santander stay, the Orioles might bank on Kjerstad, Beavers, and Fabian being close enough to the majors to include Cowser in a deal.

6. Ramon Urias - If Henderson is slated for 3B, then Urias could be the odd man out.   Do the Orioles use him at 2B where his value is probably less, especially with Ortiz, Westburg, and Norby all waiting for a chance or do the sell now while his value is relatively good.   Do they try to keep him as a super utility IF?   That's another possibility.

7. D.L. Hall -  The Orioles might see him more as a reliever than a starter or they might just have to include him in a deal for an established pitcher.   We know GRod isn't going anywhere so if they have to include a top pitching prospect in a deal, Hall is the more likely to go.

8.  Cedric Mullins -  His value is high and if the Orioles think they need to include him to get a pitcher, they might risk going with a stopgap.   This would probably mean they are confident that Cowser can play a solid ML CF and that his bat will be ready pretty quickly.

[oriole]

You’d be selling low on Mountcastle and Hays. The MLB player to trade is Santander, IMO. He proved he can stay healthy, wasn’t awful in the field, and hit decent. Plus he’s a switch hitter with a couple years left. 
I wouldn’t be throwing a fit if any of the three were traded though.
 

Prospects are another story…I have my doubts anyone around the top ten are going anywhere. They could trade from the depth in the farm though, guys like Norby, Ortiz, Hernaiz, and Prieto are all redundant when you’ve got a potential future infield of Henderson, Westburg, and eventually Holliday. Along with solid ML options like Urias and Mateo…it’s a good problem to have. 
I think out of the top ten guys, Mayo and Hall are the guys they’d probably move. High upside but questionable futures. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, oriole said:

You’d be selling low on Mountcastle and Hays. The MLB player to trade is Santander, IMO. He proved he can stay healthy, wasn’t awful in the field, and hit decent. Plus he’s a switch hitter with a couple years left. 
I wouldn’t be throwing a fit if any of the three were traded though.
 

Prospects are another story…I have my doubts anyone around the top ten are going anywhere. They could trade from the depth in the farm though, guys like Norby, Ortiz, Hernaiz, and Prieto are all redundant when you’ve got a potential future infield of Henderson, Westburg, and eventually Holliday. Along with solid ML options like Urias and Mateo…it’s a good problem to have. 
I think out of the top ten guys, Mayo and Hall are the guys they’d probably move. High upside but questionable futures. 

Yeah, I do agree with pretty much everything you said.   I just think it's going to be really tough to part ways with Santander even though this might be the highest his value will ever be.

I also agree on Mayo.  I forgot about him.   I could see him going in a a deal.   His defensive future is in question and despite his vast power potential there have to be questions about his hit tool when you look at his plate discipline numbers at Bowie.

I also agree about selling low on Hays and Mountcastle but they might determine it's time to cut bait especially if there is a deal for an established 1B or corner OF (not likely IMO).

[RZNJ]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Yeah, I do agree with pretty much everything you said.   I just think it's going to be really tough to part ways with Santander even though this might be the highest his value will ever be.

I also agree on Mayo.  I forgot about him.   I could see him going in a a deal.   His defensive future is in question and despite his vast power potential there have to be questions about his hit tool when you look at his plate discipline numbers at Bowie.  Of course, Gunnar didn't look like Gunnar at this point last year so who knows.

I also agree about selling low on Hays and Mountcastle but they might determine it's time to cut bait especially if there is a deal for an established 1B or corner OF (not likely IMO).

 

[Sports Guy]

Cowser was a guy the Os loved when they took him.  They openly admitted they had him trying to change things.

That said, they took him because of his bat to ball skills and the thought was that he would be a high average guy.  He’s not doing that.

Was he not what was advertised?  Is he worse than the team thought?  

[ScGO's]

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

1. Connor Norby -  Just a guess but he ended the season great and his value should be on the rise.   The only problem.   The Orioles have a ton of depth at 2B and Norby is limited to 2B.   He's played a few games in LF and there's always 1B.    He has a below average arm and is reportedly "okay" at 2B.    The biggest question is if the Orioles keep him, where does he fit in?  While he might increase his value even more next year, it should be pretty high right now.   Could go in a package deal for and established ML player.

 

I think its interesting that you put Norby at 1.  I live in WNC, Coach HS Baseball and help a lot of local players with their college recruiting. Just through networking, I've become friends with a GM of a Summer Collegiate Team in town and his son who played college ball at Mars Hill; both have helped me run a few showcases; they are very good friends with Connor Norby (in fact I had Connor Norby's glove in my possession for about a month bc son of GM had received it as a gift and he left it at the field one day after a showcase we ran; this was before the O's drafted Norby)

Anyway, long story short, I was chatting with them the other day about Norby and they told me that Norby has said to them that he thinks hes going to be traded. Take it for what its worth

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cowser was a guy the Os loved when they took him.  They openly admitted they had him trying to change things.

That said, they took him because of his bat to ball skills and the thought was that he would be a high average guy.  He’s not doing that.

Was he not what was advertised?  Is he worse than the team thought?  

I don't think they were planning on getting the player that was advertised.   They were hoping to get that guy and turn him into a power hitter.   The question is, can they still get the best of both worlds.

In 2021 Cowser's strikeout percentage in low A was 15%.   This year in High A it was 28%.  At AA it was 25%.   At AAA it was 30%.

The other side of the coin is that in 2021 his ISO in low A was .082.   This year in High A it was .153.  In AA it was .227.   In AAA it was .210.

So, pretty obvious what happened there.   If you can get the Cowser with the .200 ISO and combine him with the Cowser whose strikeout percentage is somewhere in the middle of the 15% and the 25-30%, you might really have something.   

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I think its interesting that you put Norby at 1.  I live in WNC, Coach HS Baseball and help a lot of local players with their college recruiting. Just through networking, I've become friends with a GM of a Summer Collegiate Team in town and his son who played college ball at Mars Hill; both have helped me run a few showcases; they are very good friends with Connor Norby (in fact I had Connor Norby's glove in my possession for about a month bc son of GM had received it as a gift and he left it at the field one day after a showcase we ran; this was before the O's drafted Norby)

Anyway, long story short, I was chatting with them the other day about Norby and they told me that Norby has said to them that he thinks hes going to be traded. Take it for what its worth

That is interesting for sure.  I just started the thread to start some discussion but it makes some sense.   

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cowser was a guy the Os loved when they took him.  They openly admitted they had him trying to change things.

That said, they took him because of his bat to ball skills and the thought was that he would be a high average guy.  He’s not doing that.

Was he not what was advertised?  Is he worse than the team thought?  

I’m not too worried about Cowser.  Drafted in 2021 and already in AAA.  He adjusted well after the first week or ten days, hitting .299/.390/.582 over his last 17 games.   He’s striking out a bit more than expected but otherwise his numbers are good.  He’ll be fine. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not too worried about Cowser.  Drafted in 2021 and already in AAA.  He adjusted well after the first week or ten days, hitting .299/.390/.582 over his last 17 games.   He’s striking out a bit more than expected but otherwise his numbers are good.  He’ll be fine. 

I’m not worried either but w/r/t this thread and the thought of trading him, I think the reason why would be because they are doubting him somewhat and would rather cash in on the value.

Think Austin Martin although Cowser has clearly been better..but same thought process.

[Jim'sKid26]

14 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I think its interesting that you put Norby at 1.  I live in WNC, Coach HS Baseball and help a lot of local players with their college recruiting. Just through networking, I've become friends with a GM of a Summer Collegiate Team in town and his son who played college ball at Mars Hill; both have helped me run a few showcases; they are very good friends with Connor Norby (in fact I had Connor Norby's glove in my possession for about a month bc son of GM had received it as a gift and he left it at the field one day after a showcase we ran; this was before the O's drafted Norby)

Anyway, long story short, I was chatting with them the other day about Norby and they told me that Norby has said to them that he thinks hes going to be traded. Take it for what its worth

I live in Asheville. Norby played travel ball for Scott Bankhead at NC Baseball Academy prior to going the ECU. Scott is a former MLB pitcher, Olympian and USA National Team coach. There are a lot of guys in Greensboro who believe Norby is going to be a very good MLB hitter no matter what position he plays. The consensus there is that the O's have a very good player in Norby. 

[connja]

59 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

 

My bet is on Westburg as the big prospect name to go.  He's a big time prospect that could bring back a big time established player, and we can easily fill the infield without him. 

[RZNJ]

Just now, connja said:

My bet is on Westburg as the big prospect name to go.  He's a big time prospect that could bring back a big time established player, and we can easily fill the infield without him. 

True but he's got the big brother/little brother thing with Gunnar working for him.  LOL

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

1. Connor Norby -  Just a guess but he ended the season great and his value should be on the rise.   The only problem.   The Orioles have a ton of depth at 2B and Norby is limited to 2B.   He's played a few games in LF and there's always 1B.    He has a below average arm and is reportedly "okay" at 2B.    The biggest question is if the Orioles keep him, where does he fit in?  While he might increase his value even more next year, it should be pretty high right now.   Could go in a package deal for and established ML player.

2. Jorge Mateo -  Elias is saying things which make it seem likely that Mateo would start next year at SS and the stolen base might become more important next year and his range at SS might become more important next year.   Hmmmm.   This is a tough one.   But Mateo is gone if the Orioles decide they want franchise player II, Gunnar Henderson at SS.   He also MIGHT be cone if they decide they want future plus defender Joey Ortiz at SS.    Does the Orioles future IF contain all three of Henderson, Westburg, and Ortiz?    If so, how soon does it happen.   Trading Mateo is risky.   I seem to be talking myself out of it but there is still enough to make me think it could happen.

3. Ryan Mountcastle -  The stats say Mountcastle was unlucky.  But the wall is the wall and that had something to do with his bad luck and it's still going to be here next year.   While I think Mountcastle probably comes back, he might go in the right deal.

4. Austin Hays -  See #3.  16 home runs this year.  Not good.

5. Colton Cowser -  This is a tough one.  He's a top 100 prospect.   He did some great things this year.   He also struck out a lot more than you'd like to see.   Do the Orioles think Cowser develops into a 20-30 homer player who hits .280 plus or is he going to be a player who strikeouts keep him from being that guy?     The fact is that Cowser is another top 100 guy with a lot of value.  But if Hays, Stowers, Mulllins, and Santander stay, the Orioles might bank on Kjerstad, Beavers, and Fabian being close enough to the majors to include Cowser in a deal.

6. Ramon Urias - If Henderson is slated for 3B, then Urias could be the odd man out.   Do the Orioles use him at 2B where his value is probably less, especially with Ortiz, Westburg, and Norby all waiting for a chance or do the sell now while his value is relatively good.   Do they try to keep him as a super utility IF?   That's another possibility.

7. D.L. Hall -  The Orioles might see him more as a reliever than a starter or they might just have to include him in a deal for an established pitcher.   We know GRod isn't going anywhere so if they have to include a top pitching prospect in a deal, Hall is the more likely to go.

8.  Cedric Mullins -  His value is high and if the Orioles think they need to include him to get a pitcher, they might risk going with a stopgap.   This would probably mean they are confident that Cowser can play a solid ML CF and that his bat will be ready pretty quickly.

You missed the prime candidate.

9. Santander - He is a sell high candidate.   Don't the O's need him? What as a DH?  There are other ways to get middle of the order DH bats.   

Santander will be a free agent after the 2024 season.  That means he is a rental player if not traded by the deadline in 2023.  And rental players lose value.   Santander has always been somewhat injury prone.    What makes anyone think he can be healthy enough to have  570  at bats again in 2023?

So if Santander becomes a rental player in August and he is injury prone, he may be injured at the time the O's want to trade him.  Solution is to trade him this off season.   Maybe the O's best trade chip to be part of a deal to get a quality starting pitcher.

I agree with the potential trade of Norby and Urias.   I don't think  any of the following will be traded.  Cowser, who is a key part of the future; Mullins, who they don't have a replacement for;   Hall, who the O's still believe will development into a very good to great starter.

I doubt the O's sell low on 1) Hays, who had a 830 OPS in late June and could be a better trade chip at the deadline when Cowser in ready.  Or 2) Mountcastle who is only 25 and likely to have better seasons in him.

Mateo is a good question.  Gunnar is a better 3B than SS.  Ortiz is a slick fielder and may be a good hitter but he does not had Mateo range at SS.   But Mateo will have to fight both of them to keep SS next year.   

Elias just said he thought the O's may have more injuries next year.  So keeping Gunner, Mateo, Ortiz, and Westburg makes some sense.

Ortiz, Cowser, Norby and Hall  probably start at AAA next year if they are all with the O's.

 

 

Edited October 7, 2022 by wildcard

[wildcard]

44 minutes ago, connja said:

My bet is on Westburg as the big prospect name to go.  He's a big time prospect that could bring back a big time established player, and we can easily fill the infield without him. 

106 RBIs sounds like a guy who can hit with runners in scoring position.  That is something the O's need.   Westburg is ahead of Ortiz for the 2B job to begin the season.  I don't expect him to be traded.  JMO

Edited October 7, 2022 by wildcard