Correa opts out…should the Os pursue him?

[Aristotelian]

I doubt Correa will do another short term deal. I would keep the cash to extend Adley, Grayson, and Gunnar. It is possible prime Gunnar will be better than late-prime Correa. Plus we have Holiday and Ortiz coming. I'm all for overpaying to fill a clear need, but I don't think SS is the position nor Correa the player.

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The context of this discussion is do we sign Correa to a 6-8 year deal at $200M+.  To answer that question you need to consider that there are reasonable chances that Holliday, Mateo and Henderson are all above-average MLB shortstops.  So this very substantial investment in Correa would necessarily block or mean a change in position or trade for several of them.  And for a good long while all of them will be much cheaper.

Well, I wasn't answering that question.  My answer to that question is that I would not  sign Correa when we have both short term (Henderson and Ortiz) and long term (Holliday) options at SS.    

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Seems dumb to pay for Correa's inevitable decline on a long-term deal when there are young Orioles who play the same position who are likely to be much better values as early as next year and definitely better values in three or four years. Correa missed some games again this year...may have a higher than average injury risk. He's a very, very good player, but not a good fit for the Orioles right now IMO. Could probably get significantly more OPS+ for the money at 1B or a corner OF position. And of course the Orioles may have to spend $$ on pitching. Just doesn't compute. 

The counter to that is that the Os have a lot of money to spend and no one is making real money for several years and he should still be really good for another 2-4 years, which could help you win now.

I don’t disagree with your point here but there are 2 sides of the coin.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I doubt Correa will do another short term deal. I would keep the cash to extend Adley, Grayson, and Gunnar. It is possible prime Gunnar will be better than late-prime Correa. Plus we have Holiday and Ortiz coming. I'm all for overpaying to fill a clear need, but I don't think SS is the position nor Correa the player.

The cash to extend those guys has nothing to do with Correa.

[Ohfan67]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

The counter to that is that the Os have a lot of money to spend and no one is making real money for several years and he should still be really good for another 2-4 years, which could help you win now.

I don’t disagree with your point here but there are 2 sides of the coin.

I hear you, but Correa's biggest contribution next year would be offense (I don't think Correa would be big defensive upgrade over the other options). If you just think in terms of adding offense, then it's cheaper to add it at another position (and can probably avoid a really long contract). 

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Hitting with an OPS above 81 would also put Ortiz above Mateo’s level.  I like Mateo, as a late inning defensive replacement and pinch runner; not as a starter.

Depends on his defense.  Mateo was a 2-3 win player despite his offense. Hopefully Ortiz hits and fields well enough to be better than that, but that's no guarantee.  A lot of very high draft picks or excellent prospects topped out around that level. Or much worse...

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I hear you, but Correa's biggest contribution next year would be offense (I don't think Correa would be big defensive upgrade over the other options). If you just think in terms of adding offense, then it's cheaper to add it at another position (and can probably avoid a really long contract). 

If Correa is a -4 OAA player at 27 or 28 odds are that's not going to get a lot better as he ages.  I have some concern about his ability to stick at short into his 30s.

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If Correa is a -4 OAA player at 27 or 28 odds are that's not going to get a lot better as he ages.  I have some concern about his ability to stick at short into his 30s.

Yep..and then, I think I would have some concern about his offense being enough at third, although that obviously depends on hood he is defensively over there.

[RZNJ]

58 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Mateo and Urias- forget about Odor, he's already been replaced- were worth a cumulative 7 WAR last year.  What do you think the odds are that Oriz and Westburg are worth that next year?  And what are the odds that Mateo and Urias can repeat that?  Those are the questions that should be answered.

Again, I'm not guaranteeing that Holliday is the SS in 2025.  I'm saying clearly that is the Orioles' plan.

I don't know what Ortiz and Westburg will be but it's time to find out.   Urias is a 3 win player as a 3B this year but if you move him to 2B he's likely a 1 or 2 win player.     So, its depends on where Henderson plays, like I keep saying.   If Henderson plays SS then Mateo will stay at 3B and Westburg likely plays 2B.    If Henderson plays 3B, then Mateo probably stays at SS (with Ortiz at Norfok) and Westburg at 2B.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, Mike Elias, you know the guy making the decisions, believes he is the SS of the future.

Yes things can change but you don’t draft him first without thinking he’s going to do what you drafted him for and do it quickly.

Those are two different things.   He drafted him 1:1 because he believe in his hitting and believes he's either going to stay at SS or stay on the dirt.   Even if he's sure (can't be 100%) that he's a SS long term does that mean he's going to be the SS in 3 years?   No.  Suppose Henderson or Ortiz become entrenched in the position and Holliday is not a clearly better defensive option 3 years from now?

Do I believe that Mike Elias is firmly committed to Holliday being his SS 3 years from now.  No.  Like a good GM, he's intelligent enough to wait and see what his best options are at the time.

[MCO'sFan]

I don't think Corea is a good fit now. As several have said that it may have made sense last year but doesn't now. I think there are several prospects that could fill the position. I still think that Mateo will be the starter to open the year. I don't think you can even consider Holiday in the decision. He's too far away. Maybe if Corea was willing/able to move to another position but who knows if that's real. I would rather go after a Corner OF or 1B/DH. And of course, pitching. 

[Too Tall]

Yes the Orioles have money to spend but this would not be a wise expenditure (In my opinion) for all the reasons listed. We need a bat but not this one. PLUS PITCHING!!!!!!

[Ceciltrav]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Im Not sure how I’m undervaluing him.  I’m just not going to overrate a sub 650 OPs player who just played defense at a level he never has before.  
 

I have said I think he will be the starting SS next year, which I think is a mistake but at least we have depth and can move on from him quickly.

Hes just not an everyday player, especially when you have better options.

Mateo has played one year in the majors.  He has played shortstop one year in the majors.  When he was with the Padres he never played short and his experience was a short sample size.  I honestly think he will get better.  I understand the options in the minors but I'm not sure we should just forget about Mateo.  

[forphase1]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Is there a scenario where you think going after Correa makes sense?

The only thing I can think of is that they trade multiple IF prospects and have an internal belief that they can move Holliday to CF and he just fine with that. 
 

I can’t really think of anything else that would make sense.

No, only in a nuclear type situation like you described.  We have so much talent in the minors for the 3rd base/SS positions (Gunnar, Ortiz, Holiday etc) that it just doesn't make much sense.  I think Mateo is WAY over rated at times, and I think his bat is even worse next year, as I don't expect that super great/hot 6 weeks or so to happen again, and I think his defense comes back to earth a bit.  Mateo should be a role player, not a starter IMO.  If we are to tie up money to a long term deal it should be from a clear weakness in our system, TOR SP, 2nd base, outfield, maybe even 1st.  But not at SS/3rd.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Ceciltrav said:

Mateo has played one year in the majors.  He has played shortstop one year in the majors.  When he was with the Padres he never played short and his experience was a short sample size.  I honestly think he will get better.  I understand the options in the minors but I'm not sure we should just forget about Mateo.  

It is very rare for a player's defense to get better after they turn 28.

He played plenty of shortstop in the minors.