Why do we need to focus on lefty hitters?

[Sports Guy]

The assumption being made about the shift ban is that hitters will be better.  It’s very possible that will be true but it also depends on how you define better.

Since, I believe, 2011 you have seen FB rates really jump up. While everyone is talking about how players should just go the other way and get easy hits, the adjustment to the shift has been to hit over it.  That’s part of the reason we have seen a rise in homers, fly balls and the 3 outcome player.

To me, that is what banning the shift truly is going to help with.  However, that will come at a cost.  If the adjustment is made to hit the ball back on the ground more and not try to lift everything, it may mean a better average but less homers and power overall.

Now, what we don’t know is if this will happen (maybe players are to dug in on launch angles and stay with it) and how long it takes. A lot of times, these things are slow build ups to get to that point and it may be a few years before adjustments are made that make a difference.

Edited November 5, 2022 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

The assumption being made about the shift ban is that hitters will be better.  It’s very possible that will be true but it also depends on how you define better.

Since, I believe, 2011 you have seen FB rates really jump up. While everyone is talking about how players should just go the other way and get easy hits, the adjustment to the shift has been to hit over it.  That’s part of the reason we have seen a rise in homers, fly balls and the 3 outcome player.

To me, that is what banning the shift truly is going to help with.  However, that will come at a cost.  If the adjustment is made to hit the ball back on the ground more and not try to lift everything, it may mean a better average but less homers and power overall.

Now, what we don’t know is if this will happen (maybe players are to dug in on launch angles and stay with it) and how long it takes. A lot of times, these things are slow build ups to get to that point and it may be a few years before adjustments are made that make a difference.

Is that your opinion or did you read it somwhere?   I am not saying there isn't a connection but I've never heard or read of this connection before.   

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Is that your opinion or did you read it somwhere?   I am not saying there isn't a connection but I've never heard or read of this connection before.   

I was doing some research for a podcast I was asked to be on and came across some of the info.  

Edited November 5, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

On 11/3/2022 at 11:48 AM, now said:

Well, so much for my "basic math" assumption. Surprised there's only  .008 difference batting L or R against RHP. Unless that's just one-year "noise." 

I had a look back at 2021 and 2019.  I’m skipping 2020 since it was a short season.  I’m going to repeat the 2022 numbers here just for convenience.  Also, I’ve added in the percentage of total plate appearances in each of the RH/LH scenarios:”

2022:

RHB v. RHP: .700 (40.2% of all PA)

RHB v. LHP: .737 (20.3%)

LHB v. RHP: .708 (32.4%)

LHB v. LHP: .647 (7.1%)

2021:

RHB v. RHP .711 (38.4%)

RHB v. LHP .766 (21.3%)

LHB v. RHP .742 (31.9%)

LHB v. LHP .656 (8.4%)

2019:

RHB v. RHP .735 (39.2%)

RHB v. LHP .788 (19.8%)

LHB v. RHP .775 (33.0%)

LHB v. LHP .721 (7.9%)

So, it does seem like the very small gap in 2022 between RH and LH hitters vs. RHP was a bit anomalous.  The gap was .008 in 2022, vs. .031 in 2021 and .040 in 2019).   The gaps vs. LHP were .090 in 2022, .110 in 2021, .067 in 2019.   If you think about it, the decisions on roster construction and playing time decisions could change a lot from year to year based on this data.  And yet, the percentages show that they change very little.   That’s because nobody knows how the data will fluctuate from year to year in advance.  We just have some general information that is reliable:

1.  Batters generally hit better against opposite-handed pitchers.

2.  The splits for RH hitters are less extreme than for LH hitters.

3.  There are more RH players around than LH players.  RH hitters get only about 60% of the PA but they get 70% of the IP.

[now]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I had a look back at 2021 and 2019.  I’m skipping 2020 since it was a short season.  I’m going to repeat the 2022 numbers here just for convenience.  Also, I’ve added in the percentage of total plate appearances in each of the RH/LH scenarios:”

2022:

RHB v. RHP: .700 (40.2% of all PA)

RHB v. LHP: .737 (20.3%)

LHB v. RHP: .708 (32.4%)

LHB v. LHP: .647 (7.1%)

2021:

RHB v. RHP .711 (38.4%)

RHB v. LHP .766 (21.3%)

LHB v. RHP .742 (31.9%)

LHB v. LHP .656 (8.4%)

2019:

RHB v. RHP .735 (39.2%)

RHB v. LHP .788 (19.8%)

LHB v. RHP .775 (33.0%)

LHB v. LHP .721 (7.9%)

So, it does seem like the very small gap in 2022 between RH and LH hitters vs. RHP was a bit anomalous.  The gap was .008 in 2022, vs. .031 in 2021 and .040 in 2019).   The gaps vs. LHP were .090 in 2022, .110 in 2021, .067 in 2019.   If you think about it, the decisions on roster construction and playing time decisions could change a lot from year to year based on this data.  And yet, the percentages show that they change very little.   That’s because nobody knows how the data will fluctuate from year to year in advance.  We just have some general information that is reliable:

1.  Batters generally hit better against opposite-handed pitchers.

2.  The splits for RH hitters are less extreme than for LH hitters.

3.  There are more RH players around than LH players.  RH hitters get only about 60% of the PA but they get 70% of the IP.

Excellent research to look at, thx for doing that!  

It does appear that even though LHB have a significant advantage vs. RHP, they are dragged down by their poor splits against LHP despite the smaller sample size. Applying the overall split of 72% RHP and 28% LHP, the weighted outcome favors RHB, ..729 to .723:

RHB v. RHP	0.729	0.715	72%	0.515
RHB v. LHP		0.764	28%	0.214
LHB v. RHP	0.723	0.742	72%	0.534
LHB v. LHP		0.675	28%	0.189

[Orioles Jim]

The performance of guys like Mancini/Mountcastle/Hays/etc and the narrative of them getting screwed by “Walltimore” leads me to wonder if there’s something that they have (internally) that isn’t being captured by the stats in the OP that’s showing that righties are truly getting victimized by the wall (and that this might have a carryover effect when they go on the road, as it’s in their heads, etc)

Otherwise, Elias doesn’t seem like the type to just simplistically buy the narrative of “ah well, the wall, needz more lefties.”  
 

Thinking there’s more to this than meets the eye.