If you could get Jacob deGrom for 2/$90M; would you do it?

[seak05]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not counting on either one doing that on a consistent basis.  Meanwhile, Houston had Verlander 1.75, Javier 2.54, Valdez 2.82.   

This, you need Grayson to pan out, and then you need another TOR guy, and then you hope Kremer and Bradish are also above average ML SP's

[Sports Guy]

If you told me right now that DeGrom will give us 25 starts the next 2 years and be healthy for the playoffs, I would pay him 45M a year.

I’m not as concerned about the lack of innings as I am him being healthy when it matters the most and giving us enough innings to justify the signing.

[Ohfan67]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Different question.  I don’t think I’d pay 2/$90 mm for deGrom, but it’s not because I don’t think we could win the WS in the next two years.  

In this thread, they are not really separate questions. My original response was that I don’t think the Orioles are in a competitive position to take a gamble like this. Even if DeGrom had a great year, the rest of the pitching staff is loaded with question marks and I think many fans underestimate how non-linear the progress of the young players is likely to be. I think a team with the Orioles payroll can’t take that kind of financial risk until they are clearly a playoff team. Like everyone I’m optimistic for the future but the Orioles have very little starting pitching, a bullpen that may have greatly over performed, and fans seem to think all the young players that are going to appear next year are going to be great from the get go. The probability that the Orioles are going to be in a World Series in the next two years is incredibly low. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

In this thread, they are not really separate questions. My original response was that I don’t think the Orioles are in a competitive position to take a gamble like this. Even if DeGrom had a great year, the rest of the pitching staff is loaded with question marks and I think many fans underestimate how non-linear the progress of the young players is likely to be. I think a team with the Orioles payroll can’t take that kind of financial risk until they are clearly a playoff team. Like everyone I’m optimistic for the future but the Orioles have very little starting pitching, a bullpen that may have greatly over performed, and fans seem to think all the young players that are going to appear next year are going to be great from the get go. The probability that the Orioles are going to be in a World Series in the next two years is incredibly low. 

I don't think the problem is if they are in a competitive position.

I think the problem is ownership won't sign off on a deal of that sort under any circumstances.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

In this thread, they are not really separate questions. My original response was that I don’t think the Orioles are in a competitive position to take a gamble like this. Even if DeGrom had a great year, the rest of the pitching staff is loaded with question marks and I think many fans underestimate how non-linear the progress of the young players is likely to be. I think a team with the Orioles payroll can’t take that kind of financial risk until they are clearly a playoff team. Like everyone I’m optimistic for the future but the Orioles have very little starting pitching, a bullpen that may have greatly over performed, and fans seem to think all the young players that are going to appear next year are going to be great from the get go. The probability that the Orioles are going to be in a World Series in the next two years is incredibly low. 

What’s “incredibly low?”  Putting aside talent, each team enters a season with a 6.67% chance to make a WS.   Over a two-year span, a 13.33% chance.  Obviously, some teams are higher and some are lower, but that’s the average chance.  Do you think the Orioles are way below that?   I don’t.  

[Jim'sKid26]

5 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

The probability that the Orioles are going to be in a World Series in the next two years is incredibly low. 

With the new playoff format and the acknowledgement that the playoffs themselves are a complete crapshoot, I'm not entirely certain I agree with you. The goal is to get into the playoffs, then your chances are as good as anyone's to get to the WS. All one has to do is look at the SD Padres or the Phillies from this post season. My impression is that with some daring moves that work out, the 2023 Os can be a Wildcard team. If that occurs and they get hot late in the year the sky's the limit.

[Sports Guy]

Cohen is giving Diaz 102M, the richest deal ever for a reliever. 
 

He’s not losing DeGrom.

[seak05]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cohen is giving Diaz 102M, the richest deal ever for a reliever. 
 

He’s not losing DeGrom.

The cost of elite pitching is incredibly high, and the value of excellent bullpen arms is only growing. At 2yrs 90 million you're getting an injury discount on DeGrom 

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think the problem is ownership won't sign off on a deal of that sort under any circumstances.

I agree and think Elias probably wouldn’t do it even if allowed. I was just opining. 

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

What’s “incredibly low?”  Putting aside talent, each team enters a season with a 6.67% chance to make a WS.   Over a two-year span, a 13.33% chance.  Obviously, some teams are higher and some are lower, but that’s the average chance.  Do you think the Orioles are way below that?   I don’t.  

Whether or not a team goes to the World Series is not random. The Orioles did not have a  6.67% chance of going to the World Series at the start of last  season. Just like the Astros probability of going to the World Series was not 6.67%. Calculating the probability is not easy. Given the past performance of the players on the roster (estimates of the means and variances), I think you could calculate the probability but it would be tough and there would be a big standard error around the estimate. I bet the Sigs of the baseball world have modeled this and have a data-based probability distribution. But it’s definitely not a random distribution. I don’t think you really believe or think that it is a random distribution. Did the Orioles  and Yankees really have the same probability of reaching the World Series last year?
 

And I do think the Orioles have less than a 6% chance of going to the series next year. I think the same Orioles roster might win fewer games next year than this year. They were lucky with injuries, may have gotten career years from players like Mateo, and I don’t  think that bullpen could repeat last years  performance. Maybe Elias adds the right pieces and we see another significant increase in wins, but I think it’s more likely that the Orioles are a little disappointing next year as young players struggle, Elias is a little more conservative with additions than most of us would like, there are a few more injuries, etc. Of course I hope the Orioles are outstanding next year, but I’m just thinking about what I see as realistic probabilities. Big leaps forward happen, The Detroit team was a fun example, but they are still rare.
 

I believe in sports miracles, but I wouldn’t bet on them. 

[Chaka Garcia]

It’s a mad world that Degrom could possibly get 40-45 million without pitching 180 innings the last few years. I understand he’s a big name with 2 Cy Youngs under his belt and high strikeouts.

Would Kershaw be a reasonable option at a lower cost? Same age and similar credentials.

[Ohfan67]

49 minutes ago, seak05 said:

The cost of elite pitching is incredibly high, and the value of excellent bullpen arms is only growing. At 2yrs 90 million you're getting an injury discount on DeGrom 

I think Sportsguy means that the Mets ownership is going to spend what it takes to keep DeGrom. 

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If you told me right now that DeGrom will give us 25 starts the next 2 years and be healthy for the playoffs, I would pay him 45M a year.

I’m not as concerned about the lack of innings as I am him being healthy when it matters the most and giving us enough innings to justify the signing.

There is no way the Orioles are paying anyone 45 million per year. I’d be shocked if they pay a guy $30 million per season.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

There is no way the Orioles are paying anyone 45 million per year. I’d be shocked if they pay a guy $30 million per season.

I agree.  It’s not happening.  

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I agree.  It’s not happening.  

There are certain media people who think Elias has some wink wink deal with Correa. So he might be the exception. I personally don’t think he’s worth the $35 million he’s currently making. But, they show him at 5.4 WAR. So the value is currently even. He’s young enough that he might stay in that ballpark 4-5 seasons.