Fangraphs’ top 50 free agents, with contract predictions

[G54377]

This is the offseason to actually spend some money. I think we have enough #3/4 starter-ish types. Having a plethora of those doesn't add up to a #1. Let's get a real guy. Get Rodon, or at least of the elder Cy-statesmen. Abreu should be a given if he actually wants to leave CHW.

[Just Regular]

Past his Top 50, ESPN Kiley ranked leftovers by position group.    Just looking at bulk innings guys, he sees them:

RHP - Cueto, K. Gibson, Wacha, Lyles, Greinke, Davies, Bundy, Clevinger, Urena, Archer, Pineda, C. Anderson.

His story also names Brad Keller (Arb3 $6mm forecast by Cot's) as a possible non-tender candidate.

LHP - Minor, Miley, Smyly (say that five times fast), R. Hill, M. Boyd, D. Duffy......Price, Keuchel, if those Cy Youngs rage against the dying of the light.

Towards the bottom of the barrel, TEX has acquired Jake Odorizzi and looks like they will pay him about $2.5mm on their own (ATL sending the other $10mm of the $12.5mm total).     Rangers figure to be one of the Orioles rivals for decent innings...their rotation now resting on like Gray-Odorizzi-Otto-Dunning as they consider whether to QO Martin Perez coming off a big year.

Edited November 10, 2022 by Just Regular

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Past his Top 50, ESPN Kiley ranked leftovers by position group.    Just looking at bulk innings guys, he sees them:

RHP - Cueto, K. Gibson, Wacha, Lyles, Greinke, Davies, Bundy, Clevinger, Urena, Archer, Pineda, C. Anderson.

His story also names Brad Keller (Arb3 $6mm forecast by Cot's) as a possible non-tender candidate.

LHP - Minor, Miley, Smyly (say that five times fast), R. Hill, M. Boyd, D. Duffy......Price, Keuchel, if those Cy Youngs rage against the dying of the light.

Towards the bottom of the barrel, TEX has acquired Jake Odorizzi and looks like they will pay him about $2.5mm on their own (ATL sending the other $10mm of the $12.5mm total).     Rangers figure to be one of the Orioles rivals for decent innings...their rotation now resting on like Gray-Odorizzi-Otto-Dunning as they consider whether to QO Martin Perez coming off a big year.

Giving Perez a QO should be a no brainer.  He seems likely to get a 3 year deal and sure thing for 2 years.  I thought Texas needed pitching.

[Just Regular]

12 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Giving Perez a QO should be a no brainer.  He seems likely to get a 3 year deal and sure thing for 2 years.  I thought Texas needed pitching.

$20mm for one year is a lot, is all.      They got perhaps his career year for cheap.     Tyler Anderson, same kind of deal.

1/20 feels like it'd be an easy call over 2/25, less so over 3/36 if you are uncertain of your ability to hang in the league a few more years.    But saying No to a QO probably moves the needle on if a Club would go to 3/36, also factoring in the draft pick penalty.

[Camden Yards]

Here is who received a QO. Only 14 players- some surprises.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/14-players-receive-qualifying-offers.html

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

Here is who received a QO. Only 14 players- some surprises.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/14-players-receive-qualifying-offers.html

All teams that can absorb the cost of the player accepting.

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

Here is who received a QO. Only 14 players- some surprises.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/14-players-receive-qualifying-offers.html

Joc Pedrerson is the only one that surprises me.

[btdart20]

8 minutes ago, Camden Yards said:

Here is who received a QO. Only 14 players- some surprises.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/14-players-receive-qualifying-offers.html

Judge thru Rizzo are locks to reject the offer.

Anderson and Eovaldi are bubble guys for me leaning reject.

Perez is a bubble gut who might lean accept.

Joc seems like a lock to take the offer. 

[btdart20]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Joc Pedrerson is the only one that surprises me.

Haha, same!

[Frobby]

Was Verlander ineligible for a QO?

I’m not really interested in Rizzo or Pederson with a draft pick penalty attached.  Bring on Abreu!

[Camden Yards]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Joc Pedrerson is the only one that surprises me.

Pederson and Eovaldi are the two that surprised me. The Red Sox seem to be all over the place. Paying 20 million for a lifetime sub .500 pitcher is a lot. I guess they can afford it. Eovaldi should accept. I wonder with the draft pick attached to him if he is out there for awhile.

[RZNJ]

Just now, Camden Yards said:

Pederson and Eovaldi are the two that surprised me. The Red Sox seem to be all over the place. Paying 20 million for a lifetime sub .500 pitcher is a lot. I guess they can afford it. Eovaldi should accept. I wonder with the draft pick attached to him if he is out there for awhile.

 

Just now, Camden Yards said:

Pederson and Eovaldi are the two that surprised me. The Red Sox seem to be all over the place. Paying 20 million for a lifetime sub .500 pitcher is a lot. I guess they can afford it. Eovaldi should accept. I wonder with the draft pick attached to him if he is out there for awhile.

Most reports seem to think Eovaldi will get 2 or 3 years at 15M or more per year.   That seems better than 1/20 especially for a pitcher with so much career ending injury risk.   He did have a 4.5 WAR as recently as 2021 and was 1.5 this year.   I don't think that's a bad decision by the Red Sox but he'll decline.

[sportsfan8703]

Bassitt has some Charlie Morton similarities. Could be a guy that puts it all together in his mid 30s

[Pickles]

20 hours ago, Frobby said:

Was Verlander ineligible for a QO?

I’m not really interested in Rizzo or Pederson with a draft pick penalty attached.  Bring on Abreu!

No, apparently you can't be tagged with the QO multiple times anymore.  So he was inelgible for it.  Obviously, it increases his attractiveness as a target.