Who will be the Orioles 2022 #5 and #6 prospects?

[Tony-OH]

Who will be the Orioles 2022 #5 and #6 prospects?

[LookinUp]

Think I want my vote back. Think one of these two is Westburg. But maybe the power and defense and plus makeup has his at #4?

[RZNJ]

If I may be so bold, I’m on a winning poll streak here.  I know Basallo is not this high so that rules out two pairings.  The next question is, who are you most likely to put at #4?   I know who your top three are regardless of order so #4 is key to figuring out #5 and #6.   I actually expected Mayo at #4 but he’s in all 3 remaining pairings.   So, who is #4, Hall or Westburg.  I just can’t see you going with Westburg at #4 and I remember your love for Mayo.  Therefore, Hall must be #4 with his power reliever floor and TOR ceiling.   I know you love Mayo’s power and ceiling and I’m guessing you still have him ahead of Westburg.  #5 Mayo. #6 Westburg.

[Sports Guy]

This one has me stumped.  I went with Hall and Mayo but that means Westburg is higher than Mayo, which would surprise me but it would also surprise me to see Hall any higher based off of Tony’s previous comments on Hall.  
 

Of course, scouts may have told him something different to get him more excited.

[Frobby]

I went Mayo and Hall, because I like Westburg.  It’s got nothing to do with what I think Tony will do, because I don’t have a clue.  In fact, I doubt he has Westburg that high.   

[ScGO's]

I'm starting to think that Hall is outside the top 10, maybe #11. I went with Westburg and Basallo, meaning top 4 is probably Mayo, Holliday, GrayRod, Gunnar

[Sports Guy]

Just now, ScGO's said:

I'm starting to think that Hall is outside the top 10, maybe #11. I went with Westburg and Basallo, meaning top 4 is probably Mayo, Holliday, GrayRod, Gunnar

I definitely wonder if Hall is 11. I could see it if you feel the profile is too risky.

OTOH, it would surprise me that Tony would value Norby and Kjerstad higher than Hall. 

[Aristotelian]

I don't think Hall has fallen out of the top 10, but I can't accept him as high as #4. That means this one has to be Hall/Mayo or Mayo/Hall. I am going with Mayo/Hall as I think Tony has always been high on Mayo and is still dreaming on his elite power.

This will means a jump for Westburg, but he put up 27 HR and 106 RBI across levels. I think he deserves it as he has made consistent progress.

4-8 are really tough to rank, I could see the case for any of these guys. 

[Aristotelian]

16 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

I'm starting to think that Hall is outside the top 10, maybe #11. I went with Westburg and Basallo, meaning top 4 is probably Mayo, Holliday, GrayRod, Gunnar

I would have no problem dropping Hall, although I can't see Basallo jumping that high unless Tony's scouts said something we don't know. I am guessing Westburg sneaks into the top 4 with Mayo-Hall here. 

[Tony-OH]

The only thing I will say here is that I went back and forth over #4 and #5 a few times.

There is no wrong answer here as all three of these players are very close for me for various reasons.

[RZNJ]

In Tony’s final power rankings, Hall was 5th and Basallo was 13th.  Hall finished the season going 7 1/3, 7 hits, 1 walk, 11 strikeouts.   Basallo’s season was over in early September.  I just have a hard time believing Basallo gained that much ground and Hall lost that much.   No way Basallo is up this high.  
 

The biggest riser to this point is Kjerstad going from 15th to 10th.  I would think his showing in the AFL and comments from scouts had something to do with that.

The biggest dropper has been Cowser from 4th to 8th and it’s a little hard to see what caused that besides the concerns about cheating to get to high velo.   Personally, Cowser’s strikeout numbers scare me, but he also impresses me more than any other hitter in the system, including the ML team.

To think Hall went from 5th to 11th AND Basallo went from 13th to top 6 is too much of a stretch for me.

[btdart20]

8 hours ago, RZNJ said:

If I may be so bold, I’m on a winning poll streak here.  I know Basallo is not this high so that rules out two pairings.  The next question is, who are you most likely to put at #4?   I know who your top three are regardless of order so #4 is key to figuring out #5 and #6.   I actually expected Mayo at #4 but he’s in all 3 remaining pairings.   So, who is #4, Hall or Westburg.  I just can’t see you going with Westburg at #4 and I remember your love for Mayo.  Therefore, Hall must be #4 with his power reliever floor and TOR ceiling.   I know you love Mayo’s power and ceiling and I’m guessing you still have him ahead of Westburg.  #5 Mayo. #6 Westburg.

I voted Hall/Mayo, but this logic seems spot on.

[interloper]

This is weird. Mayo shouldn't be anywhere near this high IMO. 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, interloper said:

This is weird. Mayo shouldn't be anywhere near this high IMO. 

I would have Mayo around 8 or 9 but I understand why he’s #5?

Age/level/power

I ding him for 

1. Ultimate defensive value in question 

2. Concerning plate discipline numbers in AA

 

[Tony-OH]

15 minutes ago, interloper said:

This is weird. Mayo shouldn't be anywhere near this high IMO. 

You do realize that Mayo would have been in his sophomore year of college in 2022, but instead was playing in AA? 

Oh, and I'll throw this in there. Here's Gunner Henderson and Coby Mayo's stats at Aberdeen at 20 years old.

Name              BB%     K%       ISO    BABIP    AVG    OBP    SLG    wOBA    wRC+               
Henderson     13.8%  30.1%    .202    .313      .230    .343    .432    .341       109
Mayo              9.4%    21.5%    .243    .275     .251    .326    .494     .361       118

So less of a K%, more power, worse luck, and a better wOBA and wRC+ for Mayo. Oh, and Mayo has no platoon split like Henderson.

Not saying he will break out like Gunnar did his next year, but tell me why Mayo should not be in the top six prospects in the organization?