Baltimore Sun: Orioles lost more than they won because of LF wall

[Camden_yardbird]

Too simplistic to just measure HRs.  It doesn't account for things like pitching strategies, matchups, other teams positioning of their LFers leading to hits (especially teams with worse LFers than Hays).

[Orioles4Life21]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

Like that green eyesore  in Boston? .. lol 

No that’s been an iconic part of Fenway for over 100 years 

Ours is just ugly lol

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Aaron Judge bitching about it made it completely worth it. **** that guy and his manager and his team. 
 

I love the strategy. Move the wall back 30 feet and then stock up on great young lefty hitters. Brilliant. 

Judge plays half his games on a little league field he needs to sit this one out regarding his complaints.

[tntoriole]

12 minutes ago, Orioles4Life21 said:

No that’s been an iconic part of Fenway for over 100 years 

Ours is just ugly lol

You will like it in 100 years 

[Uli2001]

It seemed like yesterday when Mancini was the Orioles' future.

[banks703]

15 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

It seemed like yesterday when Mancini was the Orioles' future.

@Tony-OH where would Mancini rank in the O’s list of prospects? Does he crack the top ten?

[Frobby]

15 hours ago, drdelaware said:

I love the wall.  Players continuously get bigger, stronger and faster.  I like that the HR's are harder to come by.  Just the fact that Aaron Judge whined about it sold it for me.  

He may have made remarks about it, but he hit 5 homers in 9 games at OPACY last year, so I’d say the wall didn’t hinder him much.  

[DrungoHazewood]

12 hours ago, banks703 said:

@Tony-OH where would Mancini rank in the O’s list of prospects? Does he crack the top ten?

Tony can obviously answer for himself, but what do you mean? Where would Mancini in 2016 rank as an all-time Orioles prospect?

If that's the question he certainly wouldn't be in the top 50. Maybe not top 100. He first came up at the age of 24, so he spent quite a while in the minors, even considering his 3-year college career. He was never a BA/BP top 100 prospect. Drafted in the 8th round. He was limited to playing 1B, meaning he had to hit very well to be a productive MLB player.  His 2015 season split between Frederick and Bowie was very good, hitting a combined .342/.375/.563, but he was already 23 and didn't crack any top prospect lists.

And while the Orioles have had long periods with a very unproductive farm system, they've also had times where they produced ridiculous amounts of young talent. For example, they were so loaded in the early 70s that Don Baylor had a 1.011 OPS at AAA Rochester at the age of 21 and got sent back there the next year. The same year Bobby Grich hit .383 in AAA at 21 and the next year played 130 games back in AAA.

And then consider that the very recent/current Orioles have had three consensus #1 overall prospects in Rutschman, Henderson, and Holliday, and Mancini was never a top 100.

But I guess I'm getting ahead of myself... was that what you meant?

Edited September 1, 2023 by DrungoHazewood

[Frobby]

I assume he means, if you took 2016 Mancini and put him in our current farm system, would he be in the top 10?

I’d say it’s highly doubtful.  If I remember, Mancini was only 8th on Tony’s list even then.   

That said, it should be pointed out that the offensive environment in Norfolk and the International League is vastly different today compared to 2016, for three reasons:

1.  Changes to the dimensions in Harbor Park.

2.  Switch to the major league ball.

3.  Use of electronic strike zone, which is much more hitter friendly.  

The average OPS in the Internstional League this year is .800.  It was .697 in 2016.   So you can guesstimate that Mancini’s .815 in 2016 would be .918 or higher in today’s environment.  

 

[DrungoHazewood]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I assume he means, if you took 2016 Mancini and put him in our current farm system, would he be in the top 10?

I’d say it’s highly doubtful.  If I remember, Mancini was only 8th on Tony’s list even then.   

That said, it should be pointed out that the offensive environment in Norfolk and the International League is vastly different today compared to 2016, for three reasons:

1.  Changes to the dimensions in Harbor Park.

2.  Switch to the major league ball.

3.  Use of electronic strike zone, which is much more hitter friendly.  

The average OPS in the Internstional League this year is .800.  It was .697 in 2016.   So you can guesstimate that Mancini’s .815 in 2016 would be .918 or higher in today’s environment.  

 

For much of Harbor Park's history going back to the days the Tides were affiliated with the Mets, a decent rule of thumb was that how you hit in Norfolk wasn't going to be too terribly different from how you hit in the Majors. But now it's more like a standard park, and before you get into too much detail you can knock 100 OPS points of those Norfolk numbers.

And for pitchers the reverse was true. If you didn't have a 3.00 ERA or better in Norfolk back in the day you could be pretty sure you were getting the stuffing beat out of you at OPACY. Now it's not so extreme.

[banks703]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Tony can obviously answer for himself, but what do you mean? Where would Mancini in 2016 rank as an all-time Orioles prospect?

If that's the question he certainly wouldn't be in the top 50. Maybe not top 100. He first came up at the age of 24, so he spent quite a while in the minors, even considering his 3-year college career. He was never a BA/BP top 100 prospect. Drafted in the 8th round. He was limited to playing 1B, meaning he had to hit very well to be a productive MLB player.  His 2015 season split between Frederick and Bowie was very good, hitting a combined .342/.375/.563, but he was already 23 and didn't crack any top prospect lists.

And while the Orioles have had long periods with a very unproductive farm system, they've also had times where they produced ridiculous amounts of young talent. For example, they were so loaded in the early 70s that Don Baylor had a 1.011 OPS at AAA Rochester at the age of 21 and got sent back there the next year. The same year Bobby Grich hit .383 in AAA at 21 and the next year played 130 games back in AAA.

And then consider that the very recent/current Orioles have had three consensus #1 overall prospects in Rutschman, Henderson, and Holliday, and Mancini was never a top 100.

But I guess I'm getting ahead of myself... was that what you meant?

LOL no I meant where does his prospect profile slot into the current prospect list.

Good info though 

[deward]

15 hours ago, tntoriole said:

You will like it in 100 years 

I won't care in 100 years. I think it's ugly now. 

[deward]

I don't believe for a minute that this team, as currently constructed, wouldn't be winning a ton of games with the old configuration. I'm also still waiting for the promised influx of free-agent pitchers climbing over the gates to come pitch in front of the new wall.

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, deward said:

I won't care in 100 years. I think it's ugly now. 

Quirky .. that far corner near Mr Splash will see lots of exciting balls rattling around in there with strange angles and bounces.  You wonder if triples to left have gone up? 

[Tony-OH]

16 hours ago, banks703 said:

@Tony-OH where would Mancini rank in the O’s list of prospects? Does he crack the top ten?

It would depend on the year of his development. Are we talking peak Mancini prospect status? If so, I'd say somewhere around 7 or 8 on the current list after the Westburg promotion.