Connolly: Don’t see the Os going beyond 2-3 years

[geschinger]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Except most players worth going after aren’t signing 1 year deals.

No doubt, it's a tough thread to needle.  I do think there are some decent options left who would be upgrades from what the Orioles have now who if they won't take a one year deal might be able to be had on a 2 year deal which is also fine.

[Roll Tide]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Except most players worth going after aren’t signing 1 year deals.

Or even 3 when they can get 6-11 elsewhere. 

[Yardball85]

7 minutes ago, geschinger said:

No doubt, it's a tough thread to needle.  I do think there are some decent options left who would be upgrades from what the Orioles have now who if they won't take a one year deal might be able to be had on a 2 year deal which is also fine.

I agree.  From an offensive standpoint, I think Brantley at 2 years $26-32 is a worthwhile investment as a DH and occasional left fielder.  From the pitching side of things, it is definitely less clear, though perhaps you can convince Eovaldi/Bassitt to sign a 2 year deal (likely would take three) at a higher AAV.

[turtlebowl]

I have been or Orioles Hangout out for a long time and as everyone can see I don't post all that often.  Saying that, this thread has angered me to the point to where I am now jumping in.  I really don't get what all the angst is about? Everyone got worked up over a beat reporter speculating that we aren't signing players long term?  Now most are assuming, "same old cheap Orioles"  and are making comments like we are punting this season.  I just looked at my calendar and it says it is December 8th.  Based off of that it appears we still have almost 4 months before a game is played that matters in the standings.  Elias has made 1 move so far that likely involves the opening day roster by signing Kyle Gibson.  I think we all can agree that isn't a sexy move that really doesn't move the needle.  Saying that though it now appears to have been an aggressive move signing him early.  Are any of the pitchers that have signed 3 or 4 year deals really difference makers?  Arguments can be made that some are likely to perform better than Gibson this season but is that worth a multiple year commitment?  A couple years ago we all complained when the O's basically ran out of true major league pitchers.  Personally I think it is smart where the roster stands today to add relatively cheap depth that at least has shown can compete at the major league level.  It's a 10 million dollar security blanket signing in my mind.  If the young guys struggle or we have injuries I at least feel better knowing if Kyle Gibson is healthy he should be able to keep us competitive.  Just about every staff has a Kyle Gibson so again, I don't see any issues here.

When Elias has spoken he has really said nothing.  It is GM speak so why is everyone trying to read into it so much.  I think we have enough information out there that tells us that Elias is involved to some extent with the talent that is real different makers.  To what extent is he involved is anyone's guess.  Elias appears to be really good at keeping leaks quiet which adds to the frustration of the fan base because I'm sure we would all like to know what he is doing.  Until these players come off the board or until Elias decides he is out of the negotiations he would be limited in doing much else.  We all know he isn't going to sign another pitcher if he feels Rodon is still in the mix just like he isn't going to sign a position player if he is involved with Correa.  The budget would not allow them to do anything because all of this would have a trickle down affect with the roster and of course the budget.

The real question in my mind is assuming he is still in the hunt for one of the top guys and it doesn't happen, where is the fall back option.  I believe that is where the trade route becomes viable but again why would he trade assets now to build a roster if he feels he can keep his prospects for now and buy these players.  We will just need to see where he pivots but we are likely in a holding pattern till these bigger pieces like Rodon and Correa come off the board.  

The O's have a great young nucleus and many more talented players beating on the door.  I don't want them signing players for multiple years that may not even be better than what we have coming up, it just doesn't make sense.  I have said from the beginning only sign players that are true difference makers on offense and add depth to the pitching staff. To me the biggest need is a true ace so if I am opening up the vault that is what it would be for.  As far as I can see that appears like that is what Elias is trying to do.  It is December 8th, this thread would of made much more sense if it was March 15th.  I really think everyone needds to just let this play out before the pitchforks are brought out.  

 

 

[Going Underground]

43 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Who wins if the Orioles hand out the $55-60m long term contracts you talked about in previous posts and the Orioles cannot sign all the guys to extensions?  And would they even want to sign an extension if the roster they are playing with has 40% of payroll (or whatever $55-60 would be) dedicated to unproductive players?  I'll tell you who doesn't win and that is the Orioles.  

I can tell you that this philosophy has been successfully used for a team that has been to the playoffs 6 consecutive years.  I don't see their fans being disappointed that team has taken that philosophy and run with it, do you?  

Yes,but the Astros since having the lowest payroll in 2016 have had the 18th,11th,8th,4th,7th and 11th highest Opening Day payrolls  Don't see the Orioles being in the top 10 payrolls or even eleventh. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

LOL … #8 guy based on what? Gibson who career is worth 14.1 WAR. This past season per baseball reference he was worth .7 WAR. He should be down in the Dillon Bundy range. Where are these numbers coming from??? Lyles was worth 1WAR and is -1.2 for his career. Gibson is a Dumpster signing and is only available on a 1 year deal $10 million because he’s not good. 

Gibson's 2 year total is skewed by his 2021 outlier season.

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Why FWAR? I don’t know the adjustment but he was clearly worse than Lyles last year. How he’s ranked that high is beyond me. He’s a 5th starter. 

I'm just going by what was on that list. You might have a different list. I disagree strongly that he was clearly worse than Lyles last year. His ERA was worse but there are numerous reasons you should look at other numbers beyond ERA. And if you go back two years, Gibson absolutely destroys Lyles over that timeframe. Something happened to Gibson when he went to Philly (kind of a reverse Voth) that I think is reasonable to hope changes with Adley, the wall, and better defense. Do I really think Gibson will have the 8th best season out of the FA pitchers? Maybe not but it's not out of the question. He's got a solid resume and gives us some insurance of a dependable averagish arm without having to overpay in years or dollars.

If he is all we get that will be disappointing but there are still plenty of players out there. Yes, I would have been thrilled for Verlander but it's hard to blame that on the O's. He probably never would have considered Baltimore at any price.

More importantly, I do not assume that signing Gibson now is a sign that the offseason is done. It is way too early to call the offseason a disaster/debacle. The pitchers we are rumored to be targeting are still out there, and we are rumored to have offers out on them. The FA list looks about as I would expect at this point in the offseason. 

 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

I agree.  From an offensive standpoint, I think Brantley at 2 years $26-32 is a worthwhile investment as a DH and occasional left fielder.  From the pitching side of things, it is definitely less clear, though perhaps you can convince Eovaldi/Bassitt to sign a 2 year deal (likely would take three) at a higher AAV.

Yea but are the Os going to pay 2/50 for Eovaldi or Bassitt?

Id be more on board with that than 4/75 for either but I don’t see the Os being willing to spend that much per year.

 

[geschinger]

13 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Yes,but the Astros since having the lowest payroll in 2016 have had the 18th,11th,8th,4th,7th and 11th highest Opening Day payrolls  Don't see the Orioles being in the top 10 payrolls or even eleventh. 

I don't think they'll crack the top 5, but they were 10th as recently as 2017.  

If they are consistenly winning it wouldnt be out of charcter for a top 10-15 payroll that occasionally jumps a bit higher.

[Yardball85]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea but are the Os going to pay 2/50 for Eovaldi or Bassitt?

Id be more on board with that than 4/75 for either but I don’t see the Os being willing to spend that much per year.

 

Fair points.  I'm sure Eovaldi and Bassitt would prefer more years as they are possibly looking at their last "big" contract.  I could stomach three years for either one at $18-20M per season; I wonder what the multi-year offers are that Elias keeps talking about. 

[Ohfan67]

6 minutes ago, geschinger said:

I don't think they'll crack the top 5, but they were 10th as recently as 2017.  

If they are consistenly winning it wouldnt be out of charcter for a top 10-15 payroll that occasionally jumps a bit higher.

And the Orioles opening day payroll in 2018 was 148 million. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Gibson's 2 year total is skewed by his 2021 outlier season.

Thanks 

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Yardball85 said:

Fair points.  I'm sure Eovaldi and Bassitt would prefer more years as they are possibly looking at their last "big" contract.  I could stomach three years for either one at $18-20M per season; I wonder what the multi-year offers are that Elias keeps talking about. 

This is also why Manaea feels likelier.     Players agents are fluent in the Buy Low, Sell High stuff too.

The basic question for any of them is right now do they want to sell a lot or a little?    The wall and the growing BAL brand might fit Manaea well.

Heaven forbid the angst around here if he throws us 30 good starts and gets his Taijuan Walker contract for somebody else.     The uncertainty now is is this market so robust Manaea opts for the selling "a lot" side of the fence, then he plummets in desirability from Elias' perspective.     Manaea's a good tool for the 2023 Orioles more than the peak Adley teams (ibid Bassitt really).

We played the flattery option contract structure game with Lyles.     $11mm Year 2 option...pshaw.     Sean, we are offering 1/14 with a $3mm buyout or.....a $25mm option for 2024.

[orioles119]

7 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't want to make an assumption about what that means. Would you be willing to elaborate?

Rehashed topics or vibes to posts that are done ad nauseum.  They are beating - a dead horse.

[RZNJ]

5 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Gibson's 2 year total is skewed by his 2021 outlier season.

According to Fangraphs, in his last 4 full seasons, Gibson was worth 2.6 (2018), 2.6 (2019), 3.0 (2021), and 1.8 (2022).

According to BR he was 3.5 (2018), .3 (2019), 3.5 (2021, and .7 (2022)

 

We can play with numbers and make them slant towards what we want them to say.    According to Fangraphs he's been a pretty consistent 2-3 win pitcher.    According to BREF he's been wildly inconsistent with two 3 WIN years and 2 below 1.    If I wanted to pump up Gibson, I'd certainly say he's capable of a 3 win year when looking at either system of counting.