Is it possible that we (the Hangout fans) are just not patient enough??

[Sanity Check]

I know we all want the big splash (or splashes) in free agency.  I see the frustration from many of you, and I get it.  So, I wanted to do some research with regard to two very successful franchises right now, and how they built/acquired their core players and pitchers.  Their farm systems have served them well, and with very rare exceptions, they jump in for a key free agent.  Here's what I found:

2022 Astros - Core players based on at bats, and top 5 pitchers based on starts:

Farm System Guys - Gurriel, Altuve, Pena, Bregman, McCormick, Tucker 

Acquired via Trades - Maldonado and Diaz.....and then.......

Alvarez (the Beast) - acquired via trade from the Dodgers before anyone knew who he was, so I guess we'd call him a Farm guy, since he was acquired in 2016

Free Agent Signing - Michael Brantley - hurt most of the year, but the only notable position player the Astros went out and got in free agency, before Abreu this offseason

Pitchers - Verlander, acquired via trade, and then Valdez, Urquidy, Garcia, Javier and McCullers all farm system guys

 

2022 Atlanta Braves - Core players based on at-bats, and top 5 pitchers based on starts:

Farm System Guys - Albies, Riley, Swanson, Harris, Acuna and Contreras

Free Agent Signings - d'Arnaud (not a major splash), Ozuna (2020 offseason signing, one good year, and now the Braves can't even dump his contract), and Matt Olson (this was their splash)

Acquired via Trade - Adam Duval and Eddie Rosario, both at the trade deadline in 2021

Pitchers - Fried, Wright, Strider and Anderson were "Farm System" guys, and then Charlie Morton (their splash free agent pitcher)

 

Two very patient organizations that have invested in player development in order to build the core of their teams.  They don't seem to have gotten into major bidding wars to get their players.  Why can't this be us - now and in the future?  Isn't that the blueprint that Elias may be following?  Do we maybe have the next Fried, Strider, Wright and/or Anderson in our system and just don't know it yet?

Like everyone else here, I would like to see our ownership spend some money, even if it's for locking up Rutschman and Henderson to long term deals now to keep them here for the next 10 years, and then maybe GRod once we know he's the real deal.....like maybe next offseason.  Maybe then, with that type of investment in our core players, free agents might see this as a viable place to be, assuming we remain competitive with our farm and some enhancements.

Last point, let's face it - if you're a higher level free agent out there who wants to get to the playoffs, you have to see that the Orioles are just not investing in their team right now, so with other options to play for teams who appear to be investing to compete, wouldn't those destinations be more attractive than Baltimore right now?  It's kind of cool what the O's are becoming right now, but I'm not sure many free agents are clamoring to play for us.......YET.  Here's hoping this will change in the not too distant future.

But there is path to getting to the next level using the Astros and Braves blueprints, without signing free agents to insane contracts, and I like how our farm is being developed.

Is it possible that we're just not being patient enough with the process???

[Going Underground]

8 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

I know we all want the big splash (or splashes) in free agency.  I see the frustration from many of you, and I get it.  So, I wanted to do some research with regard to two very successful franchises right now, and how they built/acquired their core players and pitchers.  Their farm systems have served them well, and with very rare exceptions, they jump in for a key free agent.  Here's what I found:

2022 Astros - Core players based on at bats, and top 5 pitchers based on starts:

Farm System Guys - Gurriel, Altuve, Pena, Bregman, McCormick, Tucker 

Acquired via Trades - Maldonado and Diaz.....and then.......

Alvarez (the Beast) - acquired via trade from the Dodgers before anyone knew who he was, so I guess we'd call him a Farm guy, since he was acquired in 2016

Free Agent Signing - Michael Brantley - hurt most of the year, but the only notable position player the Astros went out and got in free agency, before Abreu this offseason

Pitchers - Verlander, acquired via trade, and then Valdez, Urquidy, Garcia, Javier and McCullers all farm system guys

 

2022 Atlanta Braves - Core players based on at-bats, and top 5 pitchers based on starts:

Farm System Guys - Albies, Riley, Swanson, Harris, Acuna and Contreras

Free Agent Signings - d'Arnaud (not a major splash), Ozuna (2020 offseason signing, one good year, and now the Braves can't even dump his contract), and Matt Olson (this was their splash)

Acquired via Trade - Adam Duval and Eddie Rosario, both at the trade deadline in 2021

Pitchers - Fried, Wright, Strider and Anderson were "Farm System" guys, and then Charlie Morton (their splash free agent pitcher)

 

Two very patient organizations that have invested in player development in order to build the core of their teams.  They don't seem to have gotten into major bidding wars to get their players.  Why can't this be us - now and in the future?  Isn't that the blueprint that Elias may be following?  Do we maybe have the next Fried, Strider, Wright and/or Anderson in our system and just don't know it yet?

Like everyone else here, I would like to see our ownership spend some money, even if it's for locking up Rutschman and Henderson to long term deals now to keep them here for the next 10 years, and then maybe GRod once we know he's the real deal.....like maybe next offseason.  Maybe then, with that type of investment in our core players, free agents might see this as a viable place to be, assuming we remain competitive with our farm and some enhancements.

Last point, let's face it - if you're a higher level free agent out there who wants to get to the playoffs, you have to see that the Orioles are just not investing in their team right now, so with other options to play for teams who appear to be investing to compete, wouldn't those destinations be more attractive than Baltimore right now?  It's kind of cool what the O's are becoming right now, but I'm not sure many free agents are clamoring to play for us.......YET.  Here's hoping this will change in the not too distant future.

But there is path to getting to the next level using the Astros and Braves blueprints, without signing free agents to insane contracts, and I like how our farm is being developed.

Is it possible that we're just not being patient enough with the process???

Yes,but both teams have signed their core  players to long term contracts  Plus over the last five years the Astros have had the fitfh,seven and eighth highest payrolls in baseball. 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Going Underground

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

I know we all want the big splash (or splashes) in free agency.  I see the frustration from many of you, and I get it.  So, I wanted to do some research with regard to two very successful franchises right now, and how they built/acquired their core players and pitchers.  Their farm systems have served them well, and with very rare exceptions, they jump in for a key free agent.  Here's what I found:

2022 Astros - Core players based on at bats, and top 5 pitchers based on starts:

Farm System Guys - Gurriel, Altuve, Pena, Bregman, McCormick, Tucker 

Acquired via Trades - Maldonado and Diaz.....and then.......

Alvarez (the Beast) - acquired via trade from the Dodgers before anyone knew who he was, so I guess we'd call him a Farm guy, since he was acquired in 2016

Free Agent Signing - Michael Brantley - hurt most of the year, but the only notable position player the Astros went out and got in free agency, before Abreu this offseason

Pitchers - Verlander, acquired via trade, and then Valdez, Urquidy, Garcia, Javier and McCullers all farm system guys

 

2022 Atlanta Braves - Core players based on at-bats, and top 5 pitchers based on starts:

Farm System Guys - Albies, Riley, Swanson, Harris, Acuna and Contreras

Free Agent Signings - d'Arnaud (not a major splash), Ozuna (2020 offseason signing, one good year, and now the Braves can't even dump his contract), and Matt Olson (this was their splash)

Acquired via Trade - Adam Duval and Eddie Rosario, both at the trade deadline in 2021

Pitchers - Fried, Wright, Strider and Anderson were "Farm System" guys, and then Charlie Morton (their splash free agent pitcher)

 

Two very patient organizations that have invested in player development in order to build the core of their teams.  They don't seem to have gotten into major bidding wars to get their players.  Why can't this be us - now and in the future?  Isn't that the blueprint that Elias may be following?  Do we maybe have the next Fried, Strider, Wright and/or Anderson in our system and just don't know it yet?

Like everyone else here, I would like to see our ownership spend some money, even if it's for locking up Rutschman and Henderson to long term deals now to keep them here for the next 10 years, and then maybe GRod once we know he's the real deal.....like maybe next offseason.  Maybe then, with that type of investment in our core players, free agents might see this as a viable place to be, assuming we remain competitive with our farm and some enhancements.

Last point, let's face it - if you're a higher level free agent out there who wants to get to the playoffs, you have to see that the Orioles are just not investing in their team right now, so with other options to play for teams who appear to be investing to compete, wouldn't those destinations be more attractive than Baltimore right now?  It's kind of cool what the O's are becoming right now, but I'm not sure many free agents are clamoring to play for us.......YET.  Here's hoping this will change in the not too distant future.

But there is path to getting to the next level using the Astros and Braves blueprints, without signing free agents to insane contracts, and I like how our farm is being developed.

Is it possible that we're just not being patient enough with the process???

Both of those teams were extending their own players.

If the O's were to lock up Adley and Gunnar you might see a different response.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

We have the second lowest payroll in MLB and are coming off an 83 win season that saw us finish as the first runner up to the playoffs.

I don't think it was unreasonable to expect the team to make some modest but meaningful near-term improvements.

[Sanity Check]

I fully support signing our best guys to long term deals, like both of those organizations did.  I mentioned it in my post.

If we do that, our payroll will go up for sure, which is what we want, and there will be less to complain about.

If we don't do that, then we can all agree, they're just not trying, and they're not learning ALL of the lessons from the successful franchises.

Edited December 13, 2022 by Sanity Check

[interloper]

It must be said, there is currently zero trust about the Orioles locking up their good young players like these teams did. And there shouldn't be until it actually happens. Not only has the Elias-Angelos group not engaged in it, the Duquette/MacPhail-Angelos groups barely did either. They extended Jones, Roberts, O'Day off the top of my head. The recent extension list isn't very long.

I don't think the franchise has ever extended any player during his arbitration years in its entire history, but maybe someone knows for sure. 

Edited December 13, 2022 by interloper

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

I fully support signing our best guys to long term deals, like both of those organizations did.  I mentioned it in my post.

If we do that, our payroll will go up for sure, which is what we want, and there will be less to complain about.

If we don't do that, then we can all agree, they're just not trying, and they're not learning ALL of the lessons from the successful franchises.

We don't "want our payroll to go up".

We want to win.

If Elias can someone get us a World Series team with everyone making the minimum I'll deal with them not spending money.

We want to see them improve the team.

 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Can_of_corn

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

It must be said, there is currently zero trust about the Orioles locking up their good young players like these teams did. And there shouldn't be until it actually happens. Not only has the Elias-Angelos group not engaged in it, the Duquette/MacPhail-Angelos groups barely did either. They extended Jones, Roberts, O'Day off the top of my head. The recent extension list isn't very long.

I don't think the franchise has ever extended any player during his arbitration years in its entire history, but maybe someone knows for sure. 

Also Markakis.  But they didn't do it as early in the process as say the Braves do.  You lock a guy up after his first season you get a better rate than if you wait until he's hit arbitration.

[Sanity Check]

5 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

We have the second lowest payroll in MLB and are coming off an 83 win season that saw us finish as the first runner up to the playoffs.

I don't think it was unreasonable to expect the team to make some modest but meaningful near-term improvements.

Believe me, I also wanted to see some reinforcements added.  There is still a good bit of offseason left, but the "good" options in free agency are, sadly, mostly gone.

I wanted us to maybe sign Benintendi and Eovaldi after Abreu was gone - these aren't sexy picks, but I was also staying realistic with the Orioles MO.

If we don't do any meaningful trades, then I'd agree with everyone on here that this would be a "fail."

I should have known that we were still in the "old days" when we tried to improve our team by actually taking a Rule 5 guy.  I'm praying that picking someone was essentially insurance for not being able to get anything else done.  But it's still very worrisome in terms of the possible mindset in the warehouse.

[Moose Milligan]

TL;DR

If you've been here since the 90s, you're plenty patient.

[Low Country Bird]

I, for one, would continue to be very patient and would like to see us continue to give opportunities to our home-grown prospects rather than mid-tier, highly paid free agents signed to long deals.  I have been fully onboard with Elias's plan and refusal to spend.

But what I don't get is the inconsistency in the messaging.  When he talks about diving into the free agent pool and "lift off," much of which was consistent with what Boras said at the winter meetings, but later walks back those remarks and talks about how risky long term contracts are, one has to wonder what happened.  You have to think he knew the budget when he made the "lift off" comments.  So did ownership reduce his budget, or did Elias underestimate the market and then realize/believe that the free agents were way outside of the budge, overpriced and for too many years?  Either way, not necessarily a good look.

And then he implies that Urias (2B) and Mateo (SS) will be our starting middle infield, without giving Westburg, Ortiz or Norby a chance to win the starting job in spring training.  Again, this appears inconsistent with what he has said and done in the past.    

If Elias had not gotten many fans' hopes up with his comments on "lift off," I think you'd have fewer people upset and/or disappointed in the offseason thus far.  

Edited December 13, 2022 by Low Country Bird

[Ripken]

7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

TL;DR

If you've been here since the 90s, you're plenty patient.

Yeah, well, I was 9 in 1983.  We're nearing the 40 year anniversary of that and have spent most of that time with a horrible owner and losing teams.  We all see the opportunity for some really good teams ahead and want it to happen.  We've no choice but to wait while they've done nothing but walk back the talk so far.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Ripken said:

Yeah, well, I was 9 in 1983.  We're nearing the 40 year anniversary of that and have spent most of that time with a horrible owner and losing teams.  We all see the opportunity for some really good teams ahead and want it to happen.  We've no choice but to wait while they've done nothing but walk back the talk so far.

I was 2.  

[Sanity Check]

Is it also remotely possible that we are still a "confederate money" franchise and NOT a highly desired destination for free agents?  A lot of people seem to think that we're being cheap and don't want to spend money, when it could be that we don't want to be stupid and overspend.  

And before I get attacked, I will also acknowledge that there have been some very reasonable deals that we've seen that some of us would have matched, or beaten.  At the end of the day, the free agent still has to either really want to be an Oriole, or command a much better deal from us.

Are we really condoning that we should go ahead overpay players who don't really see us as a desirable destination?  I'm not trying to defend Elias, but I do wonder how many of the free agents have Baltimore on their list of where they want to play.  And I doubt that Baltimore would be on anyone's top 10 teams that they would agree to be traded to if they had a partial no-trade clause.

I'm not attacking Baltimore - I'm a homegrown fan that started following the team when I was 8 years old in 1970.  I've lived and seen the "dream".  My digs at the Baltimore franchise a more about the position our ownership has put us in over time.

For every poster on here who says, "I don't trust ownership to spend, invest, etc. to make the team a World Series competitor", there is probably a free agent out there thinking the same thing.  Think about it...... 

[sportsfan8703]

We want our GM that was saddled with the big contracts of Davis and Cobb, to give out similar deals, right when we start winning.