Orioles sign Adam Frazier

[eddie83]

8 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

No, they should be using their limited resources to add BETTER PLAYERS at positions of need (i.e. SP (Eovaldi/Bassitt) and DH (Brantley)).  At least for me, it's much more about poor resource allocation.

Do you think I don’t want that? 
 

All I am saying is a Brantley is taking at bats away from someone. Elias wanted to add a LH bat. It’s not Brantley it’s Frazier. 

[Yardball85]

6 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Do you think I don’t want that? 
 

All I am saying is a Brantley is taking at bats away from someone. Elias wanted to add a LH bat. It’s not Brantley it’s Frazier. 

I assume you do want that, but Frazier at $8M - second highest on our team - is not that. Not even close. 

[eddie83]

18 minutes ago, Number5 said:

San Diego is the 8th largest city in the United States, and is growing.  Baltimore ranks 30th and is decreasing.  San Diego is not one of the 14 teams that receives competitive balance picks annually.  Baltimore is.  MLB does not consider San Diego to be a small market.  San Diego also enjoys a comparatively large unopposed market geographically.  San Diego is some 120 miles away from the nearest MLB competition.  Baltimore is 38 miles away from one team to the southwest and 99 miles from another to the northeast.  Additionally, San Diego's owner is reportedly spending his own money.  Not really the best of comparisons, IMO.  Perhaps Milwaukee and Kansas City might be more appropriate cities to compare to Baltimore for this purpose.

Having said all that, there seems to be little doubt that the Orioles should be able to spend considerably more on payroll than they are.

SD lost the Chargers. Owner has money to burn.  
 

They won’t sustain this type of spending. They are in the early Angelos phase now like it was 1994 around here. 
 

I do think they can become similar to St Louis in the long run in terms of a market. 

[eddie83]

12 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

I assume you do want that, but Frazier at $8M - second highest on our team - is not that. Not even close. 

So what is the argument? 
 

If they don’t add Brantley add nobody? 

I don’t get the constant discussion of the money. It makes no sense to me. I don’t care where he ranks on the team payroll. 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

As @DrinkinWithFermi pointed out, he's had one good half a season the last three. So before you start throwing arrows, get your facts straight. You've corrected me on one thing that you were right about, that he just turned 31 vs played at 31 this year. 

It's hilarious that you think "when everyone thinks one way" you try to dig to see if they are all wrong. Have you ever considered if 90% feel a certain way that there very well be a reason for that?

No, you think you are smarter than everyone, just like you think Elias is smarter than every other GM out there and can not make mistakes.

You love every prospects, you love every move, and you attack anyone who disagrees with your rosey, pollyanna outlook on everything.

So take your arrows and put them away when you think you want to aim them at me, because I've backed up every single thing I've said with statcast information that backs up my concerns over this move.

I certainly don't think I'm smarter than everyone else.   I recognize that there are smarter people than me on here.   Okay, one half good season in 2021!   That's not a few years ago.    If 2021 is only half good year (He's total 2021 was over 3 WAR but let's just disregard that!) then what is 2020?    He played 58 games or whatever but you guys just lump that in as a full season.   2020 is pretty meaningless.    2021 has meaning.   He has not been good since he left Pittsburgh.  That's fair to say.   He was really good in the first half of 2021 and then for whatever reason, really went downhill.    You mention his sprint speed.  Fair criticism.  Before 2022 it was solidly in the 50% to upper 50%.   Last year it was only 37%.    Did he slow down that much in one year?   If so, that's definitely a bad sign.     Hard to believe he just cratered after the trade in 2021.   I could write 2021 as just a slump, poor second half.   2022 is harder to explain.    I don't like the signing.   I didn't like playing Aguilar over Stowers.   If we get the 2022 version of Frazier that will be another black mark on Elias, for sure.    However, I'm still going benifit of the doubt HOPING they have reasons for signing him.   Again, a pretty solid player 2016-2019 and first half of 2021.   His career numbers are pretty solid and that's after a terrible 2022.   Just turned 31.    Did he grow old overnight or is there a chance he becomes the player his career numbers suggest.

Being labeled and criticized doesn't hurt me as much as some people on here.   I can take it.   There are other people here who defended the Frazier pickup.  Some good posters.    Of course, you labeled all of those people Elias fan-boys and sycophants.     

 

[Yardball85]

14 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

So what is the argument? 
 

If they don’t add Brantley add nobody? 

I don’t get the constant discussion of the money. It makes no sense to me. I don’t care where he ranks on the team payroll. 

You are a good/smart poster, but I cannot waste my time anymore explaining this to you. 

The Orioles budget is X and it should be used on good players and positions of needed.  Now it is X - $8M, leaving less money to, hopefully, spend on better players and positions of need.  That's all I can say at this point, if my position is not clear, then so be it.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

35 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Not surprisingly, his speed has fallen with this decline going from 58.2 percentile in 2020 to 36.3 percentile last year. He's 4.4 to 1B now which put him as a 30 runner.

He's always been a low EV guy who slaps the ball around the field but now he's slow on top of it. 

He can't hit lefties (.210/.286/.290/.576 in 155 PAs last year) so he's a platoon option at  best. 

So let's recap for those who think he just had a bad year and will rebound:

EV: 2nd percentile
Barrel %: 3rd percentile
Hard hit%: 2nd percentile
Speed: 30 runner with 36.6 percentile sprint speed
Outfield jump: -2.5 per/sec avg
Feet covered: 31.7 ft/sec (If qualified he would have ranked 90th best in baseball with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Yadiel Hernandez

Positives:
He does K much, plays a good defensive 2B

They paid $8 million to a slow, slap-hitting, platoon 2B who is 31 years old.

Meanwhile the Yankees added another TOR to their team. 

The Orioles have tread water at best this offseason while the rest of their competition in the AL East has gotten better. Even with trades I don't see how paying Frazier that kind of money makes any sense and probably now limits what contracts they can bring on.

I would have been fine with Westburg or Ortiz making major league minimum to start the year at 2b and used that money to go after pitching through trades. 

 

Wow, I didn't realize he was that slow on top of being a noodle-weak slap hitter. He's going to be a weak ground out and GIDP machine.

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I certainly don't think I'm smarter than everyone else.   I recognize that there are smarter people than me on here.   Okay, one half good season in 2021!   That's not a few years ago.    If 2021 is only half good year (He's total 2021 was over 3 WAR but let's just disregard that!) then what is 2020?    He played 58 games or whatever but you guys just lump that in as a full season.   2020 is pretty meaningless.    2021 has meaning.   He has not been good since he left Pittsburgh.  That's fair to say.   He was really good in the first half of 2021 and then for whatever reason, really went downhill.    You mention his sprint speed.  Fair criticism.  Before 2022 it was solidly in the 50% to upper 50%.   Last year it was only 37%.    Did he slow down that much in one year?   If so, that's definitely a bad sign.     Hard to believe he just cratered after the trade in 2021.   I could write 2021 as just a slump, poor second half.   2022 is harder to explain.    I don't like the signing.   I didn't like playing Aguilar over Stowers.   If we get the 2022 version of Frazier that will be another black mark on Elias, for sure.    However, I'm still going benifit of the doubt HOPING they have reasons for signing him.   Again, a pretty solid player 2016-2019 and first half of 2021.   His career numbers are pretty solid and that's after a terrible 2022.   Just turned 31.    Did he grow old overnight or is there a chance he becomes the player his career numbers suggest.

Being labeled and criticized doesn't hurt me as much as some people on here.   I can take it.   There are other people here who defended the Frazier pickup.  Some good posters.    Of course, you labeled all of those people Elias fan-boys and sycophants.     

 

Frazier's big first half in 2021 was nothing more than a BABIP-driven outlier.

.359 vs. a previous career average of .303.

[Tony-OH]

It is literally fascinating watching people so caught up in Elias that they are actually trying to defend this move. 

Biggest joke of all has to be the people saying the money doesn't matter and that it won't stop them from doing anything else. Right, because this organization has given you every reason to think they will spend at will to add impact talent, lol. Sure, they just spent 40% of their offseason additions to payroll on a platoon, slow, slap hitting second baseman but hey, they can just bench him if he stinks again because you know, this team can just eat money. lol

And by the way, I'm going to start dinging people rep who say stupid uneducated things that a simple perusal through Baseball Savant would solve.

You can't say "you don't understand why people are saying he's slow" when I'm literally doing the damn homework for you and posting the metrics. This is not some stupid eye test you get from watching him for ten plate appearances but actual metrics taken from statcast.

So, while its your right to think everything Elias does is right, I'll admit to losing respect for you as a knowledgeable Hangouter if you can't do simple research or analyze the statistical information available correctly.

Feel free to ignore all of the empirical evidence and rely on your fan instincts that all will be well, but here at the Hangout, you need to back that up with facts.

What evidence do you have that Frazier will be better this year? Dig into his defense at 2B. That's really his calling card here right? Does he turn the DP really good? Well let's go look at Fan Graphs defensive stats for him at https://www.fangraphs.com/players/adam-frazier/15223/stats?position=2B/OF.

His Double play runs above average last year was 0.8 (Odor was 1.6) so it's not like he's a wizard there. Good, but not as good as Odor, which was Odor's only real calling card besides his strong arm for those plays up the middle or in shallow RF (that will no longer be allowed).

He put up really good OAA numbers at 2B vs his UZR which ended up very mediocre at 0.1 mainly because their numbers show his range was not good.

Now, I'm on record as saying I like OAA for the most part so I'm going to say he's a plus defender at 2B overall. Now is he a game changing defensive 2B that is worth his limited platoon bat? I don't think so.

At the end of the day, whether I agree with you or not doesn't matter, but don't put up lazy defenses. This is the Hangout. We expect more.

Tell us in numbers why he's good for this team or why the $8 million won't matter. Besides just hoping, why does that not matter? What have the Orioles done of late to show that spending $8 million on a player doesn't matter. What are we missing?

 

 

 

 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I didn’t suggest they are operating in the red.  I just meant they may not be able to take their payroll as high as the Padres’ is now.   There’s a lot of room in between.   

Understood. I agree absolutely!

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Is this supposed to justify a poor move?

Not trying to label, just trying to understand as a fan of the team.     Appreciate strong takes help make content.

Its an average team acquiring an average player...news at 11!

[RZNJ]

Just now, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Wow, I didn't realize he was that slow on top of being a noodle-weak slap hitter. He's going to be a weak ground out and GIDP machine.

Frazier's big first half in 2021 was nothing more than a BABIP-driven outlier.

.359 vs. a previous career average of .303.

Ok, but his career numbers, even after a very poor 2022, are solid.    His OAA at 2B have been solid.  Career .336 OBP.  Career OPS .728.     

When you say his first half was nothing more than BABIP driven, you are overstating again.   Was he lucky?  Yes.    

[Redskins Rick]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It is literally fascinating watching people so caught up in Elias that they are actually trying to defend this move. 

Tony, its not just this board, but other boards are also on fire, some even worse than here.

Elias supporters are attacking people who are clearly concerned with the direction that Elias has been showing for the past several months.

They are taking it above discussion boards talk and making it personal. 

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

   I don't like the signing.   I didn't like playing Aguilar over Stowers.   If we get the 2022 version of Frazier that will be another black mark on Elias, for sure.    However, I'm still going benifit of the doubt HOPING they have reasons for signing him.   

 

This is really the crux of it all isn't it? You don't like the signing, but you HOPE Elias has reasons for what he did. 

That's pretty much the best defense I've heard so far for this signing.

It's not just you of course, we have several posters saying the same thing. What annoys me is how you guys are going off of "HOPE" while the rest of us are providing statistically backed concerns over this move and some posters are poo-pooing it over HOPE.

We all hope it works out, but I'm not going to sit back and just think, Elias knows more than me so I'll just accept everything he does as the right thing.

At the end of the day, I criticize when he needs to be criticized and I give him props for when I think he does things well. 

I had zero issues with the Gibson signing though I would have liked to have seen a better pitcher paired with his signing. I think Elias drafts and develops well. I like what Koby Perez is doing with the international program.

Saying that, I have issues with how they handled Stowers last year, the signing and playing of Aguilar last September, the playing of Odor from about August on, and now this mess of a signing.

Hope is for fans. Having statistically backed discussions over the validity of moves are for Hangouters!  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ok, but his career numbers, even after a very poor 2022, are solid.    His OAA at 2B have been solid.  Career .336 OBP.  Career OPS .728.     

When you say his first half was nothing more than BABIP driven, you are overstating again.   Was he lucky?  Yes.    

Prior to the first half of 2021, he was a .273 hitter with a .303 BABIP.

.324 with a .359 BABIP is a huge outlier.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Redskins Rick said:

Tony, its not just this board, but other boards are also on fire, some even worse than here.

Elias supporters are attacking people who are clearly concerned with the direction that Elias has been showing for the past several months.

They are taking it above discussion boards talk and making it personal. 

I actually feel the opposite. I feel like it's not really worth my time to explain reasons why I could see the logic in this move (not saying I love it - far from it) because I'll just be labeled and attacked as an "Elias supporter" regardless of if my argument is sound. If everyone has made up their mind that this move is terrible, why waste my time?