Orioles sign Adam Frazier

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

This is really the crux of it all isn't it? You don't like the signing, but you HOPE Elias has reasons for what he did. 

Hope is for fans. Having statistically backed discussions over the validity of moves are for Hangouters!  

Heck yes, Elias knows more than the fans. I agree 100%

which is why some of these moves are so head scratching, like WTH is he thinking?

 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Tony, its not just this board, but other boards are also on fire, some even worse than here.

Elias supporters are attacking people who are clearly concerned with the direction that Elias has been showing for the past several months.

They are taking it above discussion boards talk and making it personal. 

The great majority of people in this thread are attacking the move.  The only name calling in this thread was the "fan-boy" "sycophant" names to anyone trying to defend the move.  Maybe I missed something?

To act like the pro Elias or anyone trying to defend the Frazier move are the vocal majority attacking another set of posters is pretty funny and ironic.

 

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The great majority of people in this thread are attacking the move.  The only name calling in this thread was the "fan-boy" "sycophant" names to anyone trying to defend the move.  Maybe I missed something?

To act like the pro Elias or anyone trying to defend the Frazier move are the vocal majority attacking another set of posters is pretty funny and ironic.

 

Exactly. To say that "Elias supporters" are attacking anyone here is kind of ridiculous. I feel like the folks who REALLY don't like this move are being a bit defensive when there's no real reason to be. They are in the majority and the stats are in their favor, lol. 

Any reasoning I have for being okay with the move is based almost entirely on Frazier's positional versatility and the fact that he makes a lot of (admittedly weak) contact. I don't love the move, but I like it a whole heck of a lot more than Odor and Phillips. I don't think he will block players as much as it initially seemed, but we'll just have to see. 

Edited December 16, 2022 by interloper

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Tony, its not just this board, but other boards are also on fire, some even worse than here.

Elias supporters are attacking people who are clearly concerned with the direction that Elias has been showing for the past several months.

They are taking it above discussion boards talk and making it personal. 

Well that happens and I try not to let it happen here. Sure, people may be upset if they are labeled fanboys and sycophants, but when your entire arguments is based on Elias must know best, when we're literally doing the statistical based analysis that suggests it's the wrong move, then I think you have to own up to the label.

Saying that, I'm going to tone that down because it does not lead to good conversation. My biggest issue with the folks defending this move is they haven't shown statistically why this is going to work and why he's worth $8 million dollars.

Besides hope, why do we expect a 31 year old slap hitter to suddenly to better in 2023 when besides a BABIP drive good 1st half in 2021, he hasn't been good since 2019 when he was 27 years old?

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This is really the crux of it all isn't it? You don't like the signing, but you HOPE Elias has reasons for what he did. 

That's pretty much the best defense I've heard so far for this signing.

It's not just you of course, we have several posters saying the same thing. What annoys me is how you guys are going off of "HOPE" while the rest of us are providing statistically backed concerns over this move and some posters are poo-pooing it over HOPE.

We all hope it works out, but I'm not going to sit back and just think, Elias knows more than me so I'll just accept everything he does as the right thing.

At the end of the day, I criticize when he needs to be criticized and I give him props for when I think he does things well. 

I had zero issues with the Gibson signing though I would have liked to have seen a better pitcher paired with his signing. I think Elias drafts and develops well. I like what Koby Perez is doing with the international program.

Saying that, I have issues with how they handled Stowers last year, the signing and playing of Aguilar last September, the playing of Odor from about August on, and now this mess of a signing.

Hope is for fans. Having statistically backed discussions over the validity of moves are for Hangouters!  

I got Frazier's age correct!

Also, if this is a knock on me, I've used plenty of statistics to back up my side.    I'm even getting better with Basebal Savant!

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

I actually feel the opposite. I feel like it's not really worth my time to explain reasons why I could see the logic in this move (not saying I love it - far from it) because I'll just be labeled and attacked as an "Elias supporter" regardless of if my argument is sound. If everyone has made up their mind that this move is terrible, why waste my time? 

That's ridiculous. You don't want to "waste your time' because you have no evidence. It's all on "hope". 

The reason why people have made up their mind is because we've done the research and the evidence shows this is a bad move. It's not personal against Frazier or Elias or anyone else.

Hell, I would have love to have found something in the stats and metric that would have suggested I was wrong or missing something. 

Nope, the only thing the supporters have of this move is "Hope". 

Well we all hope he does well, but the analysis of the statistics and metrics show it to be a long shot and considering the current options the team had at 2B, unnecessary especially for the price.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

People can feel however they like about this offseason- good, bad, or indifferent. Me personally, I have essentially reached a Zen-like state with the organization's apparent decision to punt 2023. I don't really get it and it seems like a huge waste after all of the buzz and excitement created by the 2022 team, but there is nothing I can do to change it so why freak out about it? 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

San Diego is the 8th largest city in the United States, and is growing.  Baltimore ranks 30th and is decreasing.  San Diego is not one of the 14 teams that receives competitive balance picks annually.  Baltimore is.  MLB does not consider San Diego to be a small market.  San Diego also enjoys a comparatively large unopposed market geographically.  San Diego is some 120 miles away from the nearest MLB competition.  Baltimore is 38 miles away from one team to the southwest and 99 miles from another to the northeast.  Additionally, San Diego's owner is reportedly spending his own money.  Not really the best of comparisons, IMO.  Perhaps Milwaukee and Kansas City might be more appropriate cities to compare to Baltimore for this purpose.

Having said all that, there seems to be little doubt that the Orioles should be able to spend considerably more on payroll than they are.

I cannot disagree with most of what you say about San Diego and I am certainly not suggesting for the Orioles to spend at the same level they are. However, previous to their current owner they were considered a small market and were ran accordingly. And the got the outcome of having lukewarm fan interest in that community and a mostly empty stadium. However, with the ownership that they have in place now, I would say that things have changed nightly for them. Previous to their owner Detroit’s owner (before he died) operated similarly with spending his own money. And I’m sure there have been and probably are others.

Another thing that you have to consider regarding market size is the cost of living and the salaries of the people who make up that particular community.

Markets like St. Louis and Houston do not have the same buying power that the people have in this one.

Currently our payroll is is well behind markets like Minnesota, Tampa, Cleveland, Pittsburg, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Detroit, etc.

Do you think that is right? Given the assets/talent in our organizations COMBINED with the size/economic strength of this market. 
 

No we are not the power epicenters of the metropolis on the coast or anywhere close. But should we below the rust belt?

[Redskins Rick]

The decision to go small payroll, leads some of the fans to jump to the conclusion that they are wanting money to line the pockets of the owners and to heck with the fans.

Small money goes against, what they said back in 2019 about building a strong contender for the long run. These current deals are not building a strong contender.

 

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I got Frazier's age correct!

Also, if this is a knock on me, I've used plenty of statistics to back up my side.    I'm even getting better with Basebal Savant!

You are using statistics from over three years ago to make a point about a player entering his early 30s. Your only other stats you used was saying he was good in 2021, but that was shown that he had good 1st half that was drive by extremely high BABIP. 

Since July 16, 2021 (starting of 2nd half 2021), Frazier has slashed .247/.307/.317/.624 in his last 853 PAs. 

When you combine that with the slower speeds, and think you see an obvious age decline for a player who was on the tail end of his "peak years" between 27-31.

Thanks for correcting me on the age for next year though.

 

[interloper]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That's ridiculous. You don't want to "waste your time' because you have no evidence. It's all on "hope". 

The reason why people have made up their mind is because we've done the research and the evidence shows this is a bad move. It's not personal against Frazier or Elias or anyone else.

Hell, I would have love to have found something in the stats and metric that would have suggested I was wrong or missing something. 

Nope, the only thing the supporters have of this move is "Hope". 

Well we all hope he does well, but the analysis of the statistics and metrics show it to be a long shot and considering the current options the team had at 2B, unnecessary especially for the price.

Easy, Tony. I've already admitted the stats are in favor of anyone not liking the move. That's clear and indisputable. 

As I said, I can see some logic in the move from a positional versatility perspective. i.e.: He's a better roster spot use than Odor because he won't be cemented at 2B all season. 

The other way I can see some logic is with his dependable, if unspectacular 2B defense, the numbers of which you've already pointed to. 

And finally, I think the fact that he doesn't strike out much is, well, at least something. (73 Ks in 602 AB last season). 

Clearly, I don't have a great case! But I enjoy finding the possible logic of moves like this. I think at the end of the day, it's not a great move. But he's an upgrade over Odor until they're ready to hand the reigns to someone else at 2B. 

Edited December 16, 2022 by interloper

[Just Regular]

Curious...would $8mm have made more sense for Omar Narvaez as backup catcher?

To be clear, its possible John Angelos is worrying about his credit card bill and only green lit this because Elias counseled him an extra year of Jordan Westburg will make this outlay pay for itself.

That's some of what being Raysian is.

Its possible the Club's take is Vavra/Stowers simply can't play well enough at all.   Its jarring because from the MASN PR , you never hear anything bad about anyone part of the #RisingTide

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

You are using statistics from over three years ago to make a point about a player entering his early 30s. Your only other stats you used was saying he was good in 2021, but that was shown that he had good 1st half that was drive by extremely high BABIP. 

Since July 16, 2021 (starting of 2nd half 2021), Frazier has slashed .247/.307/.317/.624 in his last 853 PAs. 

When you combine that with the slower speeds, and think you see an obvious age decline for a player who was on the tail end of his "peak years" between 27-31.

Thanks for correcting me on the age for next year though.

 

So his first half of 2021 is totally wiped out by a very high BABIP?    Just ignore everything because of that?   Interesting.

I agree that this speed rating for 2022 is a red flag.   His prior 4-5 years before that were all above the 50 percentile.

[BRobinsonfan]

I normally lean to the "trust the plan" and "Elias fan boy" side of the equation simply because, as a data driven GM, he's been such a breath of fresh air.  And there's no denying he has drafted well.  But the Frazier acquisition, and to a lesser extent the Gibson deal, just leave me dumbfounded.  I can clearly see how Gibson is an upgrade over Lyles as a back of the rotation starter, but he's not that much of one and he's also older.  It's hard to believe that the $10 million it cost to sign him couldn't have been spent better.  

The Frazier deal just strains all credulity for me.   $8 million to fill a position that really didn't need to be filled, for a guy with his metrics doesn't make any sense.  I really would love to see Elias defend this move in detail because I just don't see the value in it.  

I would think we could have spent the $18 million spent on Gibson and Frazier a lot better.  I think even banking it would have been preferable to using it in this way.  While I never expected the O's to spend absurd amounts of money in the off season like some did, I certainly thought we'd make much better use of the limited resources we have. 

Edited December 16, 2022 by BRobinsonfan

[Number5]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Currently our payroll is is well behind markets like Minnesota, Tampa, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Detroit, etc.

These are all appropriate cities for this comparison, IMO.  San Diego simply isn't.  That's all I was saying.  Whether you have somehow considered San Diego to be a small market or not, MLB does not and has not, and the basic facts do not.  Your point regarding payroll is spot on, IMO.  As I clearly said, the Orioles should certainly be able to afford a considerably larger payroll than they have.  I'm not disagreeing with that point at all.  It's just that trying to use San Diego as your comparison actually detracts from your presentation, since it is so clearly not a small market and their owner is spending his own money.