In Hindsight What Would Have Been Your Perfect Orioles' Offseason?

[HandsomeQuack]

Adding any of the "tier two" starting pitchers would have done it for me. The deals that Bassitt, Taillon, and Walker signed with other teams should have been very reasonable for the O's to give.

[oriole]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Holliday will be here within 2 years.

And if you want to trade him, that’s fine..but that’s an awful return, especially since we already have a CFer arguably as good or better and we have other SS prospects.

That’s making a trade just to say you did something. 

Mullins would make a better LF with his arm. It’s definitely reasonable to question adding Peguero in the deal, I just don’t have much faith that the infield prospects on hand will add up to much. I also tried to make it make sense in that Pittsburgh also has a lot of infielders on hand and it makes sense to me to try and move Urias while he any value. 
 

Anyways, I think Reynolds is a good target but he won’t be cheap. I probably don’t have the right pretend package to get him but I’ve never been great at those. Maybe instead of getting Peguero the package could be Reynolds for Holliday, Urias, and Stowers? Or if you don’t want to include Holliday then make it Cowser, Hall, and Mayo but I don’t think the Pirates do that deal. 
 

Holliday just seems like a good trade chip to me…he’s definitely more than two years away, the guy is basically a child. The team is already young with a lot of controllable and good players. I want to see the O’s make bold moves to be good right now. 

[LTO's]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But it’s not unrealistic to think they could have added 40M to the payroll..especially since they are likely to add 30ishM or more and that doesn’t include any potential trades of guys making money that are on the roster.

It’s easily affordable for them to do it. If you want to say it’s unrealistic, that’s only because ownership doesn’t care enough to do it, which I agree with but let’s not act like they can’t do it. 

It's unrealistic in the sense that ownership won't do it. That's all that matters. And as Roch has warned people for months now, the big increases to the payroll are going to come from arb raises. It is what it is. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, oriole said:

Mullins would make a better LF with his arm. It’s definitely reasonable to question adding Peguero in the deal, I just don’t have much faith that the infield prospects on hand will add up to much. I also tried to make it make sense in that Pittsburgh also has a lot of infielders on hand and it makes sense to me to try and move Urias while he any value. 
 

Anyways, I think Reynolds is a good target but he won’t be cheap. I probably don’t have the right pretend package to get him but I’ve never been great at those. Maybe instead of getting Peguero the package could be Reynolds for Holliday, Urias, and Stowers? Or if you don’t want to include Holliday then make it Cowser, Hall, and Mayo but I don’t think the Pirates do that deal. 
 

Holliday just seems like a good trade chip to me…he’s definitely more than two years away, the guy is basically a child. The team is already young with a lot of controllable and good players. I want to see the O’s make bold moves to be good right now. 

Holiday for Reynolds is An awful trade for the Os.

You are wrapped in youth and ignoring talent. Makes no sense.

Callis thinks he will be the #1 prospect in the sport within a year and you want to trade that because young?  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LTO's said:

It's unrealistic in the sense that ownership won't do it. That's all that matters. And as Roch has warned people for months now, the big increases to the payroll are going to come from arb raises. It is what it is. 

Except that’s wrong. The payroll is going higher because of the FA expenditures vs arb raises. (Ie, the FA cost more money than the difference in arb raises will..or at the very least, it’s extremely close)

Edited January 6, 2023 by Sports Guy

[oriole]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Holiday for Reynolds is An awful trade for the Os.

You are wrapped in youth and ignoring talent. Makes no sense.

Callis thinks he will be the #1 prospect in the sport within a year and you want to trade that because young?  

I see 2023-2027 as a fair competitive window. Who would you expect to provide more value within that time frame? Reynolds in years 2023-2025 or Holliday in years 2025-2027? Personally, I’d prefer the proven talent. Not every #1 prospect pans out and if Holliday really is as valuable as you allude to then maybe something like Holliday and Stowers alone could get it done. But the fact that the Pirates would undoubtedly hang up if that was the offer shows you that’s it not quite as clear as you’re thinking. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, oriole said:

I see 2023-2027 as a fair competitive window. Who would you expect to provide more value within that time frame? Reynolds in years 2023-2025 or Holliday in years 2025-2027? Personally, I’d prefer the proven talent. Not every #1 prospect pans out and if Holliday really is as valuable as you allude to then maybe something like Holliday and Stowers alone could get it done. But the fact that the Pirates would undoubtedly hang up if that was the offer shows you that’s it not quite as clear as you’re thinking. 

Holliday, especially since he could be here in 2024.

It’s a horrible trade and if you presented it to any GM, besides the one in Pitt, they would laugh at it.

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Holliday, especially since he could be here in 2024.

It’s a horrible trade and if you presented it to any GM, besides the one in Pitt, they would laugh at it.

I'm guessing the Pittsburgh GM wouldn't be able to contain his laughter either.

[oriole]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Holliday, especially since he could be here in 2024.

It’s a horrible trade and if you presented it to any GM, besides the one in Pitt, they would laugh at it.

Well, I’m basing the values off the baseball trade values page where Holliday is not worth even half that of Reynolds. So, my apologies if it seems laughable. Makes sense to me but I also don’t expect Holliday in Baltimore any sooner than 2025. 2024 seems really aggressive for a team that does not aggressively promote players. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, oriole said:

Well, I’m basing the values off the baseball trade values page where Holliday is not worth even half that of Reynolds. So, my apologies if it seems laughable. Makes sense to me but I also don’t expect Holliday in Baltimore any sooner than 2025. 2024 seems really aggressive for a team that does not aggressively promote players. 

Perfect example of why that site is complete garbage.

[oriole]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Perfect example of why that site is complete garbage.

Maybe but you may also be over valuing your teams prospects. I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, oriole said:

Maybe but you may also be over valuing your teams prospects. I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle

Do you think that Cedric Mullins and Brian Reynolds have similar value?

[Aristotelian]

Trade for Woodruff. Do the Frazier deal if Urias or Westburg are part of the Woodruff package.

Sign Conforto and Narvaez. Maybe Gibson.

[oriole]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Do you think that Cedric Mullins and Brian Reynolds have similar value?

Good question. Reynolds is a better hitter and I had thought a comparable defender to Mullins but I just compared their defensive numbers and that’s not the case. So, they might be more even head to head than I’d have guessed previously. If I had to guess which player has another 5+ WAR season I’d probably have to guess Reynolds but that’s mostly based on Mullins’ inability to hit left handed pitching. 

[HakunaSakata]

It really wasn't my intent for hypothetical trades that haven't actually actually happened to be part of this exercise. The idea was to look at the contracts that have been signed and the trades that have been made (i.e., now that we know what it would have taken to sign or trade for a player) and revisit which of those moves you would have liked to see the Orioles have made. And even though I said to keep it realistic, I was thinking more along the lines of suggesting moves like signing Judge, Turner, etc. and/or a payroll of $200M. Regardless of whether or not we think ownership will spend money I don't think it's an unrealistic expectation (or exercise) to suggest moves that would have put our payroll in the $100M range and contracts in the three to four year range. It's ok to suspend reality just a bit (for the purpose of this exercise) and assume that we have reasonable ownership willing to spend something in line with our team/market size.