The 2023 OPS Projections Thread

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Since1984 said:

Wonder how much these projections will be impacted by the MLB average in 2023 (i.e. the baseballs manufactured). 2022 was a down year and I expect Adley to exceed .800, cause his eye for the strike zone gets him through any bad streaks.

It’s always a factor.  I thought about doing OPS+ instead of raw OPS but most of these projections don’t specify that.  

[Since1984]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s always a factor.  I thought about doing OPS+ instead of raw OPS but most of these projections don’t specify that.  

It’s not like you are retired, or anything . I am assuming you are checking the waiver wire for ST reservations and tickets, during this transition…

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Since1984 said:

It’s not like you are retired, or anything . I am assuming you are checking the waiver wire for ST reservations and tickets, during this transition…

Literally was looking at the ST schedule 10 minutes ago.  

[Frobby]

Thought it would be fun to revisit this now that the season is over.  Actual OPS figures posted after the projections:

Steamer/Marcel/ZiPS/Davenport:

Rutschman .799/.781/.823/.761   .809

Mountcastle .764/.763/.804/.742  .779

Mateo .644/.658/.670/.627  .607

Urias .721/.732/.748/.711  .703

Henderson .790/.757/.812/.759  .814

Hays .734/.732/.741/.713  .769

Mullins .733/.766/.744/.742   .721

Santander .760/.752/.790/.744  .797

Stowers .750/.717/.729/.729   .218

McKenna .635/.664/.645/.674  .677

Vavra .708/.701/.697/.696  .560

Frazier .693/.682/.689/.679  .696

McCann .652/.652/.678/.610. .646

Excceding all projections: Henderson, Hays, Santander, McKenna, Frazier

Under all projections: Mateo, Urias, Mullins, Stowers, Vavra

In between: Rutschman, Mountcastle, McCann

Not listed: O’Hearn and Hicks.  We can assume they’re in the “exceeded all projections” category.  

[AnythingO's]

It is unfair to put Rutschman and Mountcastle in the same bucket, they both exceeded 3 of 4 projections. McCann only exceeded 1 low ball projection.

It is telling (maybe?) that Mullins is in the same bucket as Mateo, Urias,  and the rookies.

I am surprised McKenna is there with Hays, Henderson, Santander, do you keep a useful piece with no options?

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

It is unfair to put Rutschman and Mountcastle in the same bucket, they both exceeded 3 of 4 projections. McCann only exceeded 1 low ball projection.

It is telling (maybe?) that Mullins is in the same bucket as Mateo, Urias,  and the rookies.

I am surprised McKenna is there with Hays, Henderson, Santander, do you keep a useful piece with no options?

I mean, you can create more buckets if that floats your boat.  I don’t think these are super meaningful.  My only “point,” if there was one, is that we didn’t have some ridiculous assembly of outlier great performances that is unsustainable.  We had a pretty even mix of high and low, probably a bit more high if you weight by playing time and salt in O’Hearn and Hicks.