Do you expect Santander to hit better than Hays in 2023?

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s a consistent issue. You can’t rely on him to be healthy for much more than 350ish at bats.  On top of that, the defense has declined (perhaps due to the injuries) and he has had plenty of issues Vs righties.

I don’t see how anyone can view him as more than a bench guy. If he could stay healthy, it would be different but he can’t. 

I think this position is ludicrous.  Ryan McKenna is a bench guy.  Hays is a starting outfielder who gets hurt sometimes, so you need a decent backup for him.   

Are there 90 outfielders in MLB who are better than Hays?   No, there aren’t.   Not even close.   He ranked 56th among outfielders with 300+ PA in fWAR last year.   How many had more PA than the fragile Hays last year?  21.   He’s a starting outfielder, period.  

Another thing that irritates me is slapping the “injury prone” label on guys.   Look around.  How many players consistently stay off the IL every year?   Not very many.  Hays was 26 last year.  Is it a given that he’ll be hurt next year?   Not at all.   It’s not like you can say the various past injuries are related to each other.  He’s an aggressive player so maybe he does expose his body more than most, but some of these injuries are random. Any player in MLB can get hit in the wrong spot by a pitch.  

[Aristotelian]

This is  a semantic argument. 4th outfielder generally implies a reserve role as a ceiling and we have seen Hays be better than that when healthy. He put up 5+ WAR the last two years. At the same time, it is a good idea to have other options on hand. By the end of the season it is possible that Hays loses his job due to injury or performance. That's not what most people mean by 4th outfielder but if someone wants to call him that, go ahead. 

[Sydnor]

In his career, Santander has a higher barrel percentage than Hays (9.2% v. 6.4%), a higher average exit velocity (89.8 v. 88.1), a higher hard hit percentage (40.0% v. 37.5%), a lower ground ball percentage (32.2% v. 44.5%), and a higher line drive percentage (25.2% v. 23.4%). So, I think the answer is Santander and a big part of the reason is he puts the ball in the air more and hit the ball harder, but it’s not out of the question that Hays could start hitting the ball in the air more and have the better year. I’d say something in the neighborhood of a 65-75% probability that Santander has the better year as a hitter.

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think this position is ludicrous.  Ryan McKenna is a bench guy.  Hays is a starting outfielder who gets hurt sometimes, so you need a decent backup for him.   

Are there 90 outfielders in MLB who are better than Hays?   No, there aren’t.   Not even close.   He ranked 56th among outfielders with 300+ PA in fWAR last year.   How many had more PA than the fragile Hays last year?  21.   He’s a starting outfielder, period.  

Another thing that irritates me is slapping the “injury prone” label on guys.   Look around.  How many players consistently stay off the IL every year?   Not very many.  Hays was 26 last year.  Is it a given that he’ll be hurt next year?   Not at all.   It’s not like you can say the various past injuries are related to each other.  He’s an aggressive player so maybe he does expose his body more than most, but some of these injuries are random. Any player in MLB can get hit in the wrong spot by a pitch.  

I agree that  Hays is a starting outfielder.  After an off season of rest to will come into the season at peak health.   He can run, throw, hit for power and average and he fields well.   He is a five tool player when healthy.   

But his style of play and getting hit by pitches takes a toll during the season.  Diving, get hit on the wrist and in the ribs takes a toll  as does fouling balls of his legs, ankles and feet.   It seems to happen every year.

He plays through injuries as much as he can which means  he is not in peak form.  And Hyde lets him play hurt because Hyde does not have anyone better.   Cowser may change that this season.   Maybe in June Cowser will be ready for the majors and he can give Hays some time off when he is hurt.   It could lead to a more productive season for Hays.

Player's speed decreases over time.   Its the aging process but Hays speed is still above  average as long as he is healthy.

Edited January 17, 2023 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think this position is ludicrous.  Ryan McKenna is a bench guy.  Hays is a starting outfielder who gets hurt sometimes, so you need a decent backup for him.   

Are there 90 outfielders in MLB who are better than Hays?   No, there aren’t.   Not even close.   He ranked 56th among outfielders with 300+ PA in fWAR last year.   How many had more PA than the fragile Hays last year?  21.   He’s a starting outfielder, period.  

Another thing that irritates me is slapping the “injury prone” label on guys.   Look around.  How many players consistently stay off the IL every year?   Not very many.  Hays was 26 last year.  Is it a given that he’ll be hurt next year?   Not at all.   It’s not like you can say the various past injuries are related to each other.  He’s an aggressive player so maybe he does expose his body more than most, but some of these injuries are random. Any player in MLB can get hit in the wrong spot by a pitch.  

No, there may not even be 50 OFers better than Hays, at least a healthy Hays.

But the reality is that this is a guy who is completely unreliable. There is a difference between talent and availability. And while you love to point out he was available for 500+ at bats last year, the bottom line is that he was hurt for probably half of them.

Hays the player, when healthy is good. I like Hays. Like I said before, if you told me he was going to be healthy all year, he’s a starting OFer for a playoff caliber team.

And it doesn’t matter that the injuries are flukish. What matters is that they happen and that wears on your body, it effects your performance and it effects your availability.

We all love his hustle. We all recognize his talent. We all recognize the issues he has in his game. But the health matters and it’s bigger than all of that stuff.

[Sports Guy]

According to fWAR, Hays was 56th in WAR amonger OFers with 250 or more at bats. He was tied with 8 OFers at 1.5 fWAR. 
 

And it took him 580 plate appearances to do that.

[LTO's]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

There is a difference between talent and availability. And while you love to point out he was available for 500+ at bats last year, the bottom line is that he was hurt for probably half of them.

This is where I'm at. It's kind of disingenuous to say Hays was one of the healthier OFs last year when it's clear he wasn't, he was just playing through the injury. He injures his wrist on July 4h. Misses only a couple games but puts up a .566 OPS the rest of that month and a sub .300 OBP/sub .650 OPS in the following two months. Well below where he was at pre-injury.   

[Just Regular]

This is just back of baseball card stats expectations, but this month NFBC players prefer Santander.    Here are some other AL outfielders the crowd thinks are worse than Santander and better than Hays for 2023:

Giancarlo Stanton, Hunter Renfroe, Harrison Bader, Oscar Gonzalez, Riley Greene, Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida, Andrew Benintendi and Ramon Laureano

[webbrick2010]

Yes

[Sports Guy]

Hays only has about a 700 OPS vs righties the last 2 years.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

According to fWAR, Hays was 56th in WAR amonger OFers with 250 or more at bats. He was tied with 8 OFers at 1.5 fWAR. 
 

And it took him 580 plate appearances to do that.

By WAR he was second on the Orioles behind Mullins, ahead of Santander. The fact that he got more than 250 ABs suggests more than a reserve role. And top 60 in a universe of 90 MLB outfield positions also makes him more than a reserve player. You seem to view it as black and white "reliable starting OF on a playoff team" vs "4th outfielder". I think we all agree he falls short of the gold standard, whatever you want to call it. 

 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hays only has about a 700 OPS vs righties the last 2 years.

So?   The average RxR split last year was .700; in 2021 it was .711.   Hays was .725 and .683.   Just about league average for RxR.   On RxL, league average was .714 last year and .735 in 2021; Hays was .703 and .897.   What I take away from it is that Hays has been a slightly better than league average hitter (107 and 103 OPS+) with fairly normal R/L splits.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

By WAR he was second on the Orioles behind Mullins, ahead of Santander. The fact that he got more than 250 ABs suggests more than a reserve role. And top 60 in a universe of 90 MLB outfield positions also makes him more than a reserve player. You seem to view it as black and white "reliable starting OF on a playoff team" vs "4th outfielder". I think we all agree he falls short of the gold standard, whatever you want to call it. 

 

Exactly.  If you want to call him (to this point) a second division starter, I’d probably agree.  But he’s a solid starting outfielder.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

By WAR he was second on the Orioles behind Mullins, ahead of Santander. The fact that he got more than 250 ABs suggests more than a reserve role. And top 60 in a universe of 90 MLB outfield positions also makes him more than a reserve player. You seem to view it as black and white "reliable starting OF on a playoff team" vs "4th outfielder". I think we all agree he falls short of the gold standard, whatever you want to call it. 

 

Baseball reference WAR is inferior to FG(at least when it comes to position players) as we have discussed many times.

Here’s the dirty little secret about pro athletes..most of them are not everyday guys. When you talk about baseball players, most can’t stay healthy enough or hit well against each arm or whatever and get exposed playing too much.

Thats Hays…but that’s a lot of his peers and that’s who is compared to, so in that regards, sure he’s better than a bench guy.  

But again that’s not really my point. I’m not talking about performance as much(although there are issues there) as I am reliability and availability. This is just not a player I am going into 2023 saying he is my everyday left or right fielder. I can’t rely on that. 

Hell, I wouldn’t count in it for Santander either and for much of the same reason. I actually like his chances of staying healthier this year because he should get most of at bats as a DH and part time first baseman but he’s also been pretty unreliable in his career. That’s why I want him traded.

When I talk about him as a 4th OFer I am talking about him within the context that he isn’t a guy you plan to get “starters minutes”. 
 

If he stays healthy and it turns out that way, great. He likely will be a 2+ WAR guy if that’s the case but I can’t plan on that. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So?   The average RxR split last year was .700; in 2021 it was .711.   Hays was .725 and .683.   Just about league average for RxR.   On RxL, league average was .714 last year and .735 in 2021; Hays was .703 and .897.   What I take away from it is that Hays has been a slightly better than league average hitter (107 and 103 OPS+) with fairly normal R/L splits.

 

But if he is just going to be around 700 for both and if the defense is declining, the value starts to drop quickly.

Good to see he is around league average for r/r though although that doesn’t really move the needle for me all that much.