Mansolino on the shift

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think the number will be the same(within a normal margin of change of course), they will just be different plays.

 

That's great and I might even be inclined to agree but you haven't provided any data or even a theoretical basis for refuting the equally valid opinion coming from a professional coach and the group of players he is talking to. At the very least I think it is fair to say banning the shift puts less premium on arm and therefore more on range and athleticism to get OAA.

[Three Run Homer]

I'm not sure if I think that banning the shift will lead to "better" baseball.

But I do agree with Mansolino's implication that banning the shift will benefit the Orioles relative to other teams if Jorge Mateo is our shortstop.  

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

That's great and I might even be inclined to agree but you haven't provided any data or even a theoretical basis for refuting the equally valid opinion coming from a professional coach and the group of players he is talking to. At the very least I think it is fair to say banning the shift puts less premium on arm and therefore more on range and athleticism to get OAA.

Sure, different things will be emphasized and will lead to marginal advantages.

I'm arguing against the idea that somehow the shift has allowed for a lower overall caliber of athlete to thrive.

 

[Aristotelian]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, different things will be emphasized and will lead to marginal advantages.

I'm arguing against the idea that somehow the shift has allowed for a lower overall caliber of athlete to thrive.

 

He never said that, so fine.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

He never said that, so fine.

Quote

You just can’t stick a big bopper out there that can’t defend his position.

That implies that under the current situation you could.

For far longer than I have been alive teams have put big boppers out in the corner outfield spots and sucked up the poor defense, with or without the shift.

Adding the DH to both leagues did more to stop that then this will.

[SemperFi]

I did think one of the interesting things he noted is that as a result of the ban a good arm in RF is more valuable.  The two plays I love the most are a triple (love to watch Mateo run) and throws to third or the plate.  I'm an old outfielder and I'm not ashamed to admit I still have dreams of coming in on a ball and throwing to home.  A throw TBone Shelby made to the plate is seared in my memory!!

[Aristotelian]

49 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That implies that under the current situation you could.

For far longer than I have been alive teams have put big boppers out in the corner outfield spots and sucked up the poor defense, with or without the shift.

Adding the DH to both leagues did more to stop that then this will.

We've definitely had some awful right fielders and the new rule will punish teams more for trying to get away with that.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

We've definitely had some awful right fielders and the new rule will punish teams more for trying to get away with that.

And how many of them were back before the shift was much of a thing?

Larry Sheets played a gross of games in right field over his career.

 

Teams, generally, always want a strong arm in right.

Teams, generally, always want guys that are good at fielding.

Yes this should, slightly, increase the value of a strong arm in right.

But I don't think it's going to be by much.

Not enough that you'd play a clearly weaker offensive player in right because of it.

At the end of the day right field isn't going to become a position with a lot of defensive value.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

And how many of them were back before the shift was much of a thing?

Larry Sheets played a gross of games in right field over his career.

 

Teams, generally, always want a strong arm in right.

Teams, generally, always want guys that are good at fielding.

Yes this should, slightly, increase the value of a strong arm in right.

But I don't think it's going to be by much.

Not enough that you'd play a clearly weaker offensive player in right because of it.

At the end of the day right field isn't going to become a position with a lot of defensive value.

Again, he is not saying that these guys never played or won't play. 

[DrungoHazewood]

On 1/20/2023 at 4:25 PM, Pickles said:

What isn't accurate?  That the shift devalued the range of middle infielders?

Just because everybody wasn't Ozzie Smith in the past doesn't reflect on that at all.

If the shift makes range less valuable, then wouldn't the thing that maximizes the value of range be forcing all the fielders into sub-optimal positions?  If you painted a dot for each of the infield and outfield positions to stand on, but put them in unusual places like right near the lines, or almost on the warning track... that would put a huge premium on range.  Perhaps we should do that.

[DrungoHazewood]

On 1/20/2023 at 7:21 PM, Aristotelian said:

We've definitely had some awful right fielders and the new rule will punish teams more for trying to get away with that.

I'm trying to visualize why this would be. The 3B/rover was taking some of the balls Mark Trumbo couldn't get to?

I still think the impact is going to be pretty marginal.  Batting averages for left-handers are going to go from, like, .236 to .242. They're telling everyone they can't play their fielders where it makes the most sense for maybe five points of batting average.

[Tony-OH]

On 1/20/2023 at 7:05 PM, SemperFi said:

I did think one of the interesting things he noted is that as a result of the ban a good arm in RF is more valuable.  The two plays I love the most are a triple (love to watch Mateo run) and throws to third or the plate.  I'm an old outfielder and I'm not ashamed to admit I still have dreams of coming in on a ball and throwing to home.  A throw TBone Shelby made to the plate is seared in my memory!!

Some of my favorite memories of my own baseball highlights came from throws from the outfield to home and 3rd. Love that as well obviously.

That Shelby throw may have been the highlight of his Orioles career and was certainly a throw Bumbry was not capable of making.

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'm trying to visualize why this would be. The 3B/rover was taking some of the balls Mark Trumbo couldn't get to?

I still think the impact is going to be pretty marginal.  Batting averages for left-handers are going to go from, like, .236 to .242. They're telling everyone they can't play their fielders where it makes the most sense for maybe five points of batting average.

Personally, I think that those big pull hitting left-handed hitters will see the greatest bump. I can't sit here and give a number, but I do think we'll see a rise on left-handed hitters with high averages.

Now the one thing people need to remember is that "shifting" is still going to occur just not as extreme. SS or 3B can still play up the middle on left-handed hitters, just not a few steps over while the 2B plays shallow RF like in the past. Same with pull hitting RHB. 2B may still be playing up the middle as long as they have both feet on the right side of the bag (at least that's what I think I read).

So honestly, the biggest difference is on the 2B/3B no longer allowed to play shallow right field. 

 

[Explosivo]

Good thing we are loading up on left handed batters both in drafts and in free agency. 

[SemperFi]

17 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Some of my favorite memories of my own baseball highlights came from throws from the outfield to home and 3rd. Love that as well obviously.

That Shelby throw may have been the highlight of his Orioles career and was certainly a throw Bumbry was not capable of making.

Meanwhile the Orioles – after trailing the first-place Brewers by eight games on August 13 – had a chance to pull within two games with seven to play by winning in Milwaukee on September 26. Baltimore held a 3-2 advantage with one out in the bottom of the eighth inning, but the Brewers had runners at the corners when Cecil Cooper flied to center. The Orioles’ media guide described, “John gauged the flight of the ball, retreated a few steps, and then came running in to catch the ball at full stride, using that momentum to aid his throw.”36 With a one-hop strike to catcher Rick Dempsey, he cut down Bob Skube at home plate to complete an inning-ending double play. Teammates greeted Shelby at the top step of the dugout as he exited the field, and reporters made a beeline for his locker after the Orioles’ crucial victory. “You don’t know what you just did, do you?” Ripken asked before explaining the importance of the play to Baltimore’s pennant chances.37 Shelby later admitted, “I had no idea what the game meant.”38

Great Oriole moment, Shelby also had 12 outfield assists in his first 60 games in the minors, maybe the best outfield arm I have ever seen.