Keith Law Top 100

[wildcard]

Lawlar has had his problems with injuries.  He had a torn labrum shortly after being drafted.   Last summer he was diagnosed with a growth on this ribs that required surgery .     In the Arizona Fall league he had fractured shoulder when hit by a pitch.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

They may have but he seemed to hit better after he was drafted and I didn't read anything about swing changes.  Did you?

Nope.

But I find it very hard to believe that an issue as fundamental as his difficulties with the high fastball was solved with a "Hey, how about you try not swinging at those?"

Had to at the very least been some work on his swing plane.

He hit 239 with a OBP of 414 last year in college.  Obviously with that delta between BA and OBP he demonstrated good strike zone judgement so he probably wasn't swinging at a bunch of overly high pitches.

 

Honestly, If it wasn't you replying to me I'd question why someone even wants to fight over the issue.

 

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Nope.

But I find it very hard to believe that an issue as fundamental as his difficulties with the high fastball was solved with a "Hey, how about you try not swinging at those?"

Had to at the very least been some work on his swing plane.

He hit 239 with a OBP of 414 last year in college.  Obviously with that delta between BA and OBP he demonstrated good strike zone judgement so he probably wasn't swinging at a bunch of overly high pitches.

 

Honestly, If it wasn't you replying to me I'd question why someone even wants to fight over the issue.

 

Yikes.  You're the one who responded to me about players I suggested making swing changes.    Sure, Henderson said he made some adjustments swinging at pitches higher in the zone, maybe Fabian did the same.     I don't put that into the same category as Beavers who they supposedly had to fundamentaly change his swing from scratch.

The initial conversation was about "why pick hitters high" if they need to change their swings.   Again, the only players I believe fit into this category are Beavers and maybe Haskins.   You were the one who posted "Fabian?".    I would say no to Fabian.   I have not ready anything about re-working his swing.

Edited January 31, 2023 by RZNJ

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Yikes.  You're the one who responded to me about players I suggested making swing changes.    Sure, Henderson said he made some adjustments swinging at pitches higher in the zone, maybe Fabian did the same.     I don't put that into the same category as Beavers who they supposedly had to fundamentaly change his swing from scratch.

Yikes indeed.

I reply with Jud Fabian?, and instead of going, sure that's a good possibly you need need to push back despite the numbers.

That's you, can't give an inch.

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well I do think teams get stupid. These kids aren’t turning down life changing money and the opportunity to get to free agency sooner and not have to take college classes for 3 years and risk being exposed, get injured, etc.., over a million or so dollars.  It’s just so unlikely that you call their bluff and you will win more often than not..and when I say win, I mean 9 out of 10 times..at least.

They can go to JuCo or an academy and enter the draft the next year 

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yikes indeed.

I reply with Jud Fabian?, and instead of going, sure that's a good possibly you need need to push back despite the numbers.

That's you, can't give an inch.

LOL.   Why would I say that's a good possibility?    There's a big difference from making adjustments and changing someone's swing.  I believe they made adjustments with Cowser.   Now with Beavers, I believe they reconstructed his swing.   I think they made some significant changes with Haskins as well although I don't know how much of that was his actual swing.

I don't believe they made any fundamental changes to Fabian's swing.   If you consider an honest answer push back, that's your problem.

[Tony-OH]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think that’s 100% fair. The way I see it, Cowser was in the first year of making a pretty big adjustment in his swing.   It was mostly a good adjustment, but there were some hiccups and flaws.   Hopefully he irons those out in 2023 now that the main work is done.  

Overall, he had a successful first year and it's obvious he has talent. He hits the ball hard (though I don't have consistent EV numbers) and is a solid defensive outfield with an above average arm so he has fallback skills if the bat doesn't end up special. 

The upside is nice though if he can make some adjustments and from every indication he's the kind of kid that puts in the work, so it will be interesting to see him in 2023.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Jud Fabian?

The knock on Fabian was he could get beat by fastball up in college. that wasn't an issue very often in his pro debut. We'll get a bigger sample size this year. Let's hope the Sally League (man it's weird to say that about A+ with Aberdeen instead of Frederick teams add more MiLBTV camera's because that league is no very good, including the embarrassing Aberdeen who didn't even supply an announcer.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Then don’t exchange numbers with them. You don’t need to show your cards to them.

It’s not their choice if you draft them or not. If you decide that’s the guy you wanted, you draft him.

That's not how it works in the slotting system they have now. Teams will get a player's number and if they're close, they will say will you take "x". Some players will wait until the end to sign because they think they can get some of the left over cash in case a guy they were saving that money for got drafted before the team could get them.

You don't see many kids not sign nowadays in the top ten rounds because teams know these guys numbers. The only time it doesn't work out now is when a player changes his number after getting drafted. 

I heard that's what happened with Nolan McLean. The good news is Elias took two fliers on high money guys who had slipped at the end of the draft and ended up with Carter Young who got McLean's money and some of the left over Holliday money who signed for about $690k under slot.

[RZNJ]

22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That's not how it works in the slotting system they have now. Teams will get a player's number and if they're close, they will say will you take "x". Some players will wait until the end to sign because they think they can get some of the left over cash in case a guy they were saving that money for got drafted before the team could get them.

You don't see many kids not sign nowadays in the top ten rounds because teams know these guys numbers. The only time it doesn't work out now is when a player changes his number after getting drafted. 

I heard that's what happened with Nolan McLean. The good news is Elias took two fliers on high money guys who had slipped at the end of the draft and ended up with Carter Young who got McLean's money and some of the left over Holliday money who signed for about $690k under slot.

Wow!  Thanks for the insider information.  So, it had nothing to do with his medicals as far as you know?

[Sports Guy]

48 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

They can go to JuCo or an academy and enter the draft the next year 

Yep..and they can risk a lot by doing that. I don’t buy that they would.

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

That's not how it works in the slotting system they have now. Teams will get a player's number and if they're close, they will say will you take "x". Some players will wait until the end to sign because they think they can get some of the left over cash in case a guy they were saving that money for got drafted before the team could get them.

You don't see many kids not sign nowadays in the top ten rounds because teams know these guys numbers. The only time it doesn't work out now is when a player changes his number after getting drafted. 

I heard that's what happened with Nolan McLean. The good news is Elias took two fliers on high money guys who had slipped at the end of the draft and ended up with Carter Young who got McLean's money and some of the left over Holliday money who signed for about $690k under slot.

You will always be close because the player isn’t going to walk away from the big money, even if it’s less than they are hoping for.

There is always the deal you want and the deal you will accept and most of the time, they are different numbers.

Edited January 31, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Wow!  Thanks for the insider information.  So, it had nothing to do with his medicals as far as you know?

I can't confirm one way or the other. Just something I was told by 3rd hand info. might have been a combo, who knows?

 

[emmett16]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

That's not how it works in the slotting system they have now. Teams will get a player's number and if they're close, they will say will you take "x". Some players will wait until the end to sign because they think they can get some of the left over cash in case a guy they were saving that money for got drafted before the team could get them.

You don't see many kids not sign nowadays in the top ten rounds because teams know these guys numbers. The only time it doesn't work out now is when a player changes his number after getting drafted. 

I heard that's what happened with Nolan McLean. The good news is Elias took two fliers on high money guys who had slipped at the end of the draft and ended up with Carter Young who got McLean's money and some of the left over Holliday money who signed for about $690k under slot.

The kids have about 30 seconds to agree to a deal when they get the phone call on draft day.  The kids have to know the number that they want (as you mentioned, both sides know the number to get the deal done) and be ready to say yes or no when the phone rings.  

[LookinUp]

15 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You will always be close because the player isn’t going to walk away from the big money, even if it’s less than they are hoping for.

There is always the deal you want and the deal you will accept and most of the time, they are different numbers.

Players would hate doing business with your organization. That hatred would grow over time and manifest itself in many other ways.

If you're talking about a single deal for a single player. Fine. But that's a terrible way to do business over time.