Vavra has been working on 1B

[btdart20]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 By wOBA, which properly weights the importance of OBP and extra-base hitting

I think there's more work to be done on projecting on-base averages when a hitter's style isn't built around EV and "traditional" expected metrics (EV, LA, HH%).  Using those metrics Vavra has a bit of a 'round peg in a square hole' dilemma to it.  Jeff McNeil and Frazier are more like Vavra.  Low average EV, average LA, high contact, low HH%...  Vavra still has some field cred to earn as far as facing MLB pitching (does he have bat-to-ball skills to counter ML pitchers attacking the zone) for sure.  

He'll never be the MOO bat "ideal" from 1B.  But do think he can bring some 26-man roster level of competence, especially from a scrappy OBP-type need.  Though that value comes more and more into question as higher ceiling guys start knocking (Ortiz, Westburg, Cowser) and if specific positional needs are revealed (i.e. we need an everyday 2B or 1B). 

He's fine as a bench bat to give guys rest.  Maybe he's got more in the tank defensively, but he does seem more like a warm body more than a defensive wiz no matter how much he improves.  So positional flexibility and the occasional PH might be his only way to PAs.

I'm glad Vavra has options.

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

I don't disagree with this at all, and I'm not saying Vavra should be a starter. I think he's clearly a bench utility player. But it's hard to know about that hit tool from 100 ABs. I'd just like to see what he looks like as a MLB bench player for most of a season, or until he proves he's not viable. 

An .886 OPS in Norfolk is not easy to do, even if it's only 200 ABs. It's not a big enough sample, but it's not nothing. 

Vavra can grind out an AB with the best of them.  He is a major thorn in a pitchers side.  I think his skill set is tough to do on a limited basis.  I also think he will have a much better showing this year.  He was one of my favorite players at Norfolk.  His ABs were always very professional and as you noted .886 OPS, he had sustained success.  I like him as a back up 1B.  His glove is pretty solid, it's his throws that can be kind of erratic.  

[Frobby]

Some Vavra projections (remember, .258/.340/.337 last year):

ZiPS: .245/.339/.358

Steamer: .248/.336/.365

Marcel: .250/.321/.379

Nobody projecting a big breakout in 2023, but we’ll see.  ZiPS’ 80th percentile projection is .271/.365/.405.  

[BRobinsonfan]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Mountcastle was at .305 OBP last year.  It'd be amazing if he could somehow get to .347.

I meant Mancini.  Opps. 

[BRobinsonfan]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

OBP only carries you so far.  By wOBA, which properly weights the importance of OBP and extra-base hitting, Vavra was at .303, below the team average of .305 and 10th of the 18 players on the team with at least 50 PA.   So, he needs to either improve his power a bit or get on base at an even higher rate than he did last year.   But, I think he may well be capable of doing either or both of those things, based on his MiL record.  

I agree... Obviously we're working on SSS in the majors, but his MiL performance suggests he has more power than he exhibited last year.  And, to be clear, I'm suggesting that I think his ceiling is as a role player off the bench.  Happy to be proven wrong.  

[Roll Tide]

I don’t believe Vavra has enough power to ever be a 1B. 

[eddie83]

38 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I don’t believe Vavra has enough power to ever be a 1B. 

He doesn’t full time. Would be about whether he could handle it as a backup. 

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I don’t believe Vavra has enough power to ever be a 1B. 

He wouldn’t be a starting 1B, but if he improves his bat a bit he could back up 1B in a pinch.  There were 13 players with an ISO under .150 9 under .125) who are listed at 1B with at least 300 PA.

[RZNJ]

H

54 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I don’t believe Vavra has enough power to ever be a 1B. 

How do you feel about Luis Arraez?

[Roll Tide]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

H

How do you feel about Luis Arraez?

[RZNJ]

41 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Right.  No one wants a 4.4 WAR player at 1B.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Right.  No one wants a 4.4 WAR player at 1B.

Actually thought you meant Arauz the guy who was here last or the year before. The guy you mentioned plays for the Twins unless I missed an announcement? Plus he’s getting 6.1 million this year in arb. How/who would you dump to make room on the payroll assuming a trade happens

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Actually thought you meant Arauz the guy who was here last or the year before. The guy you mentioned plays for the Twins unless I missed an announcement? Plus he’s getting 6.1 million this year in arb. How/who would you dump to make room on the payroll assuming a trade happens

 

That's not even Frazier money.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Actually thought you meant Arauz the guy who was here last or the year before. The guy you mentioned plays for the Twins unless I missed an announcement? Plus he’s getting 6.1 million this year in arb. How/who would you dump to make room on the payroll assuming a trade happens

You're missing my point.  Arraez hit 8 home runs but was, overall, a very valuable 1B.    I don't think Vavra is going to be a starting 1B but you can do it without power.   It just isn't the norm.    BTW, Arraez was the main piece in the Twins deal for the Marlins' Pablo Lopez.   He is now a Marlin.

Edited February 7, 2023 by RZNJ

[Roll Tide]

34 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

That's not even Frazier money.

But, it depends what’s really available…plus you need an extension. If you are trading prospects for him.