Angelos Claims He's Not Selling

[AnythingO's]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, I am not ready to say what payroll they can afford.   Per Forbes, they had $ 83 mm in operating income in 2021.  We will get the Forbes 2022 numbers in a few weeks, but we know that the O’s had about 500,000 more in attendance than In 2021, and that a couple of renewed national TV deals kicked in that should lead to increased TV revenues for every team. So, I will not be at all surprised if the O’s operating income for 2022 exceeded that from 2021 by a significant margin.  But I’ll wait to see what Forbes says.  (And yes, we all know that the Forbes numbers don’t give a complete picture, but they do give an idea of where teams stand against each other and how things change year to year.)

Correct, we just don't know. However the MLB profit was the highest ever, beating 2019, but the attendance was significantly lower league wide. That makes me suspect that the last increment of Disney $$ was included in the 2022 overall profit figures. So the O's could see a bump in 2023 OI unrelated to the new TV deals, whether that continues or is sustainable remains to be seen.

[AnythingO's]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sure that 30M payment from Disney is going straight to payroll.

I suspect it was counted in Revenue for all of MLB but likely will be in the O's Operating Income for 2023. But I tend to be negative.

[SemperFi]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

This is all accurate, but I think the O’s market position has changed considerably.   I’d break the Angelos era into three periods:

1994 - 2004: the Orioles have no competing team in Washington and are drawing 3 mm+ fans a year, which begins to drop a few years into the long losing streak and accelerates when Cal retires.  

2005 - 2011: the Nats are in DC, but the rights fees for Nats/O’s games are pre-set at very low rates so MASN is a gold mine.  

2012 - 2023: the litigation over the rights fees commences.   The issue is still in dispute, but in any event the fees will be considerably higher than in the pre-2012 era, and with customers cutting the cord, MASN becomes far less profitable.   Attendance craters as the O’s go into rebuild mode and the pandemic occurs.  

Bottom line, the O’s are in a way worse financial position today than they were in the early years of Angelo’s’ ownership.  I don’t see them ever having a top 10 payroll unless something happens that changes the team’s revenue relative to other teams.   


 

I would also add the guestimate that they lost 60% of their corporate partnership revenue too.  I was one of those signs on the wall, when DC got a franchise a lot of those dollars went south.  Giant is a prime example.  I don't believe Forbes and other models accurately capture this but it is not insignifigant.  The other issue with models I have seen is they plug in a certain dollar figure per seat sold ($32 in one I used) while the real dollar value is varies widly in favor of larger market teams.  

[SemperFi]

1 hour ago, AnythingO's said:

I suspect it was counted in Revenue for all of MLB but likely will be in the O's Operating Income for 2023. But I tend to be negative.

I think we did different models and came up with similar operating profit for the past few years (~$80) but I have a feeling that was somewhat conservative as some revenue is not captured (ie corporate).  I believe my model included '22 but did not have the one time Disney contribution as it was not know at the time. 

Edited February 23, 2023 by SemperFi

[AnythingO's]

5 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

It was not included in '22 in the models I have seen.  

That is interesting as the attendance in 2022 was down by 6% vs 2019 but revenue was a record high 10.8 B vs 10.7 B in 2019. I didn't think the new tv money kicked in until next year, maybe that is what did it?

[SemperFi]

3 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

That is interesting as the attendance in 2022 was down by 6% vs 2019 but revenue was a record high 10.8 B vs 10.7 B in 2019. I didn't think the new tv money kicked in until next year, maybe that is what did it?

Hi Anything-I amended my original post.  I can't do it this evening but will look for the model I used tomorrow am.  I think you are correct that there was a spike but I didn't look at MLB just the Orioles.  My financials are from an Ivy League professor's site, I'll provide the link tomorrow.

[SemperFi]

12 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

That is interesting as the attendance in 2022 was down by 6% vs 2019 but revenue was a record high 10.8 B vs 10.7 B in 2019. I didn't think the new tv money kicked in until next year, maybe that is what did it?

I used the attached along with another I can't find as a guideline but I came up with a lower OI than he shows in table 8 ($110 v $80), the Disney $ would have brought OI to $110 or so.

 https://www.morssglobalfinance.com/major-league-baseball-finances-what-the-numbers-tell-us/

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

I used the attached along with another I can't find as a guideline but I came up with a lower OI than he shows in table 8 ($110 v $80), the Disney $ would have brought OI to $110 or so.

 https://www.morssglobalfinance.com/major-league-baseball-finances-what-the-numbers-tell-us/

There are some pretty big flaws in his numbers, one of which is the assumption that all teams charge the same ticket prices.   I think Forbes’ numbers are probably a lot better.   

[btdart20]

Orioles owner Peter Angelos sells Foxtail Center for $15.1M - Baltimore Business Journal (bizjournals.com)

PA closed a deal to sell a shopping center.  One Charles is still on the market (I think).  

Fox Tail Center - Google Maps

I wonder what the estate liquidation end game is...?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

Orioles owner Peter Angelos sells Foxtail Center for $15.1M - Baltimore Business Journal (bizjournals.com)

PA closed a deal to sell a shopping center.  One Charles is still on the market (I think).  

Fox Tail Center - Google Maps

I wonder what the estate liquidation end game is...?

They might be trying to accumulate enough capital to pay the inheritance tax on the team?

[btdart20]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

They might be trying to accumulate enough capital to pay the inheritance tax on the team?

Oh yeah...  Death and taxes...  Only a few hundred mills to go!

[Sports Guy]

Definitely the motto I think of when I think of the Os..under promise and over deliver!

 

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

They might be trying to accumulate enough capital to pay the inheritance tax on the team?

It’s a crazy % isn’t it? 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

It’s a crazy % isn’t it? 

It's high yea.

But to keep an asset like a ML baseball team?

 

[eddie83]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's high yea.

But to keep an asset like a ML baseball team?

 

I definitely see the allure in wanting to keep a team. I just don’t recall anyone ever doing it recently. I admit it’s not that I’ve followed it super close. I think the Steinbrenner’s had good timing if I recall.