Heston Kjerstad 2023

[AnythingO's]

4 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

He is quite fast.  I think his skillset would be greatly underused at 1b.   I'm thinking Kjerstad RF and Santander to 1b.  

I agree completely, especially since Mayo isn't too far behind HK, doesn't have his wheels, and will need a position change off 3B because of Gunnar.

[forphase1]

19 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

He is quite fast.  I think his skillset would be greatly underused at 1b.   I'm thinking Kjerstad RF and Santander to 1b.  

While that sounds good,  it also leaves Cowser without a place on the MLB team, unless we move on from Hays who is hitting great so far this season.   We are quickly getting to the point of not having room for all the talent in the organization, even if we were willing to call it up.  Good problem to have!

[oriole]

16 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I agree completely, especially since Mayo isn't too far behind HK, doesn't have his wheels, and will need a position change off 3B because of Gunnar.

I don’t know if there’s any credence in this notion but considering his initial diagnosis of myocarditis, I’d suspect it’d be a good idea to have him at a less demanding position. I don’t really know enough about the disease to say anything definitively but from my understanding it can be re-aggravated, there is no cure. Not a whole lot of running around at 1B, so a position move could just be preservation of health? I dunno, just speculating. I’m not a cardiologist.

[deward]

1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

While that sounds good,  it also leaves Cowser without a place on the MLB team, unless we move on from Hays who is hitting great so far this season.   We are quickly getting to the point of not having room for all the talent in the organization, even if we were willing to call it up.  Good problem to have!

One guy DH's and Mouty is the odd guy out.

[emmett16]

5 hours ago, forphase1 said:

While that sounds good,  it also leaves Cowser without a place on the MLB team, unless we move on from Hays who is hitting great so far this season.   We are quickly getting to the point of not having room for all the talent in the organization, even if we were willing to call it up.  Good problem to have!

If Santander if filling the 1B roll most evenings, then a Rotation of Mullins, Cowser, Hays, Kjerstad in the OF could work with someone getting a night off once a week and someone DHing.  

[forphase1]

4 hours ago, deward said:

One guy DH's and Mouty is the odd guy out.

Sure, but we use the DH a good amount for Adley when he isn't catching.   Just saying that we are going to need someone in our young talent to be a first baseman in the future as Mountcastle isn't the long term answer and neither is Santander as he's going to get expensive soon.   Be it Mayo, Kjerstad, Westburg, whomever. 

[Bemorewins]

3 hours ago, forphase1 said:

Sure, but we use the DH a good amount for Adley when he isn't catching.   Just saying that we are going to need someone in our young talent to be a first baseman in the future as Mountcastle isn't the long term answer and neither is Santander as he's going to get expensive soon.   Be it Mayo, Kjerstad, Westburg, whomever. 

How expensive is Santander? I believe that he's 7.4 million this season. What maybe 9 next year? If if we decided to give him a 3 year deal after his age 29 season how much are we talking here 33 million? 

We are in serious trouble if that kind of money is something that we can't/won't do. I'm not saying that we should definitely invest in re-upping Santander. But he's not the kind of player that you have to break the bank for.

[forphase1]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

How expensive is Santander? I believe that he's 7.4 million this season. What maybe 9 next year? If if we decided to give him a 3 year deal after his age 29 season how much are we talking here 33 million? 

We are in serious trouble if that kind of money is something that we can't/won't do. I'm not saying that we should definitely invest in re-upping Santander. But he's not the kind of player that you have to break the bank for.

I don't know what he'll be getting after this year.   But I do believe that as soon as management thinks his production can be close to matched by someone making the league minimum he'll be gone.   I expect him to be traded between now and the trading deadline next year.   I don't really see any situation where we sign him for any of his free agency years. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

I don't know what he'll be getting after this year.   But I do believe that as soon as management thinks his production can be close to matched by someone making the league minimum he'll be gone.   I expect him to be traded between now and the trading deadline next year.   I don't really see any situation where we sign him for any of his free agency years. 

I don’t think that resigning should be any sort of priority. But I also don’t think that trading him (especially not this season) should be a priority either. If you could just find rookies to come up and hit 30 home runs in a season, that would be great. The only problem is that you can rarely get that kind of production of a rookie (even the best of prospects).

I think it may be helpful to us fans to set realistic expectations for young guys trying to figure out this level. Look at how long it’s taken the uber talented Gunnar. 

[forphase1]

17 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t think that resigning should be any sort of priority. But I also don’t think that trading him (especially not this season) should be a priority either. If you could just find rookies to come up and hit 30 home runs in a season, that would be great. The only problem is that you can rarely get that kind of production of a rookie (even the best of prospects).

I think it may be helpful to us fans to set realistic expectations for young guys trying to figure out this level. Look at how long it’s taken the uber talented Gunnar. 

I'm not saying this fans expectations or what I'd do about Santander if I was in charge.   I'm saying what I expect the organization to do.  He's an asset they will be losing in less than two years and they will trade him to get some value for him.  At the same time that will open up a place for another cost controlled asset to take his place and hopefully put up similar numbers. 

Like the Rays, I expect us to trade most players before they reach free agency,  if we can,  while extending a select few.   Of course it requires getting offers worth trading.  Now maybe they do pull more of an Astros type long term plan where they do dive more into free agencies and locking up more guys.   But the farm system is where I expect most of our talent to be found, and I think for the most part we need to be prepared to only see most guys in an Os uniform for a handful of years.   I don't like it,  and it's not how I'd run things.  But it's the way I expect it to be ran, until I'm shown otherwise.

[Bemorewins]

9 hours ago, forphase1 said:

I'm not saying this fans expectations or what I'd do about Santander if I was in charge.   I'm saying what I expect the organization to do.  He's an asset they will be losing in less than two years and they will trade him to get some value for him.  At the same time that will open up a place for another cost controlled asset to take his place and hopefully put up similar numbers. 

Like the Rays, I expect us to trade most players before they reach free agency,  if we can,  while extending a select few.   Of course it requires getting offers worth trading.  Now maybe they do pull more of an Astros type long term plan where they do dive more into free agencies and locking up more guys.   But the farm system is where I expect most of our talent to be found, and I think for the most part we need to be prepared to only see most guys in an Os uniform for a handful of years.   I don't like it,  and it's not how I'd run things.  But it's the way I expect it to be ran, until I'm shown otherwise.

Everything that you say is very rational and may proof to be true. I just don’t have any interest in investing money and time in a continuous (unnecessary rebuild), what you are calling/describing as the “Rays model”. 

That sounds like being unnecessarily cheap and not really investing in the on field product while the owner rakes in most/all the profits and laughs at us all the way to the bank every year.

I’m fundamentally opposed to this idea/concept/philosophy and will not support it. I have seen where this leads, we will indeed be like the Rays, in the end we will be consistently good but never will to do what it takes to ever be good enough. We will have no fans and no relevance in the community. 

Lastly, in order to be like the Rays you have to CONSISTENTLY be able to develop elite pitching like the Rays, year in and year out. 

What have you seen from the O’s that suggest that can even remotely approach that? I hope it’s not the fact that we have been able to turn a few scrap/career minor league relievers into very good to elite guys. We are going to need to do that with starting pitching consistently like the Rays have done. They have produced elite, all star, and very good starters for like the last 15 years.

[forphase1]

4 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Everything that you say is very rational and may proof to be true. I just don’t have any interest in investing money and time in a continuous (unnecessary rebuild), what you are calling/describing as the “Rays model”. 

That sounds like being unnecessarily cheap and not really investing in the on field product while the owner rakes in most/all the profits and laughs at us all the way to the bank every year.

I’m fundamentally opposed to this idea/concept/philosophy and will not support it. I have seen where this leads, we will indeed be like the Rays, in the end we will be consistently good but never will to do what it takes to ever be good enough. We will have no fans and no relevance in the community. 

Lastly, in order to be like the Rays you have to CONSISTENTLY be able to develop elite pitching like the Rays, year in and year out. 

What have you seen from the O’s that suggest that can even remotely approach that? I hope it’s not the fact that we have been able to turn a few scrap/career minor league relievers into very good to elite guys. We are going to need to do that with starting pitching consistently like the Rays have done. They have produced elite, all star, and very good starters for like the last 15 years.

I think instead of the pitching side of it,  the O's expect to keep churning out high quality offensive players, and to keep having a top flight scoring offense.  While not yet proven, I THINK the plan is once the majors is stocked with high performing young guys to start trading the surplus for #1,2 and 3 starters and bullpen help as the organization seems hesitant to draft pitching on their own.   So far they have done a very good job of getting many high ranking positional players,  and identifying something that seems to be working for the hitters.

So to sum by Rays model I mean more the structure of not being in on big free agents, not keeping most guys when they get expensive or hit the open market,  and trading guys and replacing them with the youthful talent, along with some selective extensions for key players.   But doing our building through the positional player pipeline instead of the pitchers like the Rays.

Finally, I don't disagree about the cheap ownership.   I was hoping, and expecting, ownership to start spending this offseason, and they didn't.   Maybe they will surprise me,  but at this point I don't believe we will be signing big free agent, taking on expensive contracts in trade,  or even extending guys that we should.  Maybe I'm wrong and 'takeoff' just hasn't happened yet,  but will.   But at this point I'll believe it when I see it.   Have you seen anything from ownership over the past decade or so to think they are going to really open up the checkbook?  Davis was the last big signing and we all know how that worked out.

[owknows]

5 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Everything that you say is very rational and may proof to be true. I just don’t have any interest in investing money and time in a continuous (unnecessary rebuild), what you are calling/describing as the “Rays model”. 

That sounds like being unnecessarily cheap and not really investing in the on field product while the owner rakes in most/all the profits and laughs at us all the way to the bank every year.

I’m fundamentally opposed to this idea/concept/philosophy and will not support it. I have seen where this leads, we will indeed be like the Rays, in the end we will be consistently good but never will to do what it takes to ever be good enough. We will have no fans and no relevance in the community. 

Lastly, in order to be like the Rays you have to CONSISTENTLY be able to develop elite pitching like the Rays, year in and year out. 

What have you seen from the O’s that suggest that can even remotely approach that? I hope it’s not the fact that we have been able to turn a few scrap/career minor league relievers into very good to elite guys. We are going to need to do that with starting pitching consistently like the Rays have done. They have produced elite, all star, and very good starters for like the last 15 years.

Winning for $10,000,000 is unacceptable.

I demand we win for $300,000,000

 

[Bemorewins]

3 hours ago, forphase1 said:

I think instead of the pitching side of it,  the O's expect to keep churning out high quality offensive players, and to keep having a top flight scoring offense.  While not yet proven, I THINK the plan is once the majors is stocked with high performing young guys to start trading the surplus for #1,2 and 3 starters and bullpen help as the organization seems hesitant to draft pitching on their own.   So far they have done a very good job of getting many high ranking positional players,  and identifying something that seems to be working for the hitters.

So to sum by Rays model I mean more the structure of not being in on big free agents, not keeping most guys when they get expensive or hit the open market,  and trading guys and replacing them with the youthful talent, along with some selective extensions for key players.   But doing our building through the positional player pipeline instead of the pitchers like the Rays.

Finally, I don't disagree about the cheap ownership.   I was hoping, and expecting, ownership to start spending this offseason, and they didn't.   Maybe they will surprise me,  but at this point I don't believe we will be signing big free agent, taking on expensive contracts in trade,  or even extending guys that we should.  Maybe I'm wrong and 'takeoff' just hasn't happened yet,  but will.   But at this point I'll believe it when I see it.   Have you seen anything from ownership over the past decade or so to think they are going to really open up the checkbook?  Davis was the last big signing and we all know how that worked out.

I remain VERY cynical/skeptical about our awful ownership's interesting in the team winning let alone spending any real money to improve the team. It appears to me that John Angelos views the Orioles solely as a money grab and that his side interest is community development work in Baltimore.

Now back to the baseball side of things, if we can consistently "church out" and replace special bats like Adley, Gunnar, and Holliday, I will be shocked. And I consider that a VERY LOW probability of being able to do such a thing consistently. That seems like a very poor stratey to rely on going forward, as the odds just don't favor repeated/sustainable success with that kind of low probability approach.

[orioles22]

I don't think Elias will try to fill the DH role full-time with Adley playing there a couple of days a week. I expect them to move on from Santander soon with a long-term outfield of Cowser, Mullins and Hays.