Jordan Westburg 2023

[geschinger]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

When does this change though?  They should be contending next year too. At some point, you just have to deal with it.

Of course, had they done more to make the team (especially starting pitching) better to begin the year, it would be easier to do this.

They have gotten out to a great start. You have some time to get these guys acclimated. Do it now.

I think they have to bite the bullet and do it and should do it even if it means less wins in 2023.  But I'd rather him stay in AAA if the alternative is to promote him and play him sporadically.  That does no one any good.

I love the great start to the year but I do think it changes the approach that might have been optimal for the long term.  If we weren't sitting with the 4th best record in baseball I think we'd be much more likely to promote and let guys struggle than we will legitimately contending.  I'm just skeptical we'll eventually sit Santander or Hays, make moves with the middle infield to give guys like Cowser, Ortiz and Westburg the 300 ABs they should get this summer.

Edited May 16, 2023 by geschinger

[Sports Guy]

Just now, geschinger said:

I think they have to bite the bullet and do it and should do it even if it means less wins in 2023.  But I'd rather him stay in AAA if the alternative is to promote him and play him sporadically.  That does no one any good.

I love the great start to the year but I do think it changes the approach.  If we weren't sitting with the 4th best record in baseball I think we'd be much more likely to promote and let guys struggle than we will legitimately contending.  I'm just skeptical we'll eventually sit Santander or Hays, make moves with the middle infield to give guys like Cowser, Ortiz and Westburg the 300 ABs they should get this summer.

Right now, with Urias out, the only player who needs to sit is Frazier and, if they feel good about Santander playing first, that really makes it easier to get everyone in the lineup and play these guys a lot.

Now, the question is, how long is Urias out for? If he is back in 2 weeks, that obviously affects things but you can still make it work.  
 

Right now, I would bring up Cowser and Westburg and have these guys play as much as possible for the next few weeks. 
 

I don’t disagree that there will likely be some kind of an acclimation period but we don’t know that for sure. It’s possible that these guys play well enough right from the get go that it’s justified they are in the lineup.

I mean, we are winning with Gunnar struggling. We won in April with AS giving us nothing. We have won in May with Mateo doing nothing.  Adley went a month in between homers and wasn’t showing power,

Our back up C has a sub 600 OPS. Frazier has been in the 625-690 range most of the year. 
 

So it’s not like we are getting these dominant offensive performances that make you think we can’t handle this. Guys will be up and down all year.

Just bite the bullet, get them up now and have them more acclimated for the second half of the year.

[geschinger]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Right now, with Urias out, the only player who needs to sit is Frazier and, if they feel good about Santander playing first, that really makes it easier to get everyone in the lineup and play these guys a lot.

Now, the question is, how long is Urias out for? If he is back in 2 weeks, that obviously affects things but you can still make it work.  
 

Right now, I would bring up Cowser and Westburg and have these guys play as much as possible for the next few weeks. 
 

I don’t disagree that there will likely be some kind of an acclimation period but we don’t know that for sure. It’s possible that these guys play well enough right from the get go that it’s justified they are in the lineup.

I mean, we are winning with Gunnar struggling. We won in April with AS giving us nothing. We have won in May with Mateo doing nothing.  Adley went a month in between homers and wasn’t showing power,

Our back up C has a sub 600 OPS. Frazier has been in the 625-690 range most of the year. 
 

So it’s not like we are getting these dominant offensive performances that make you think we can’t handle this. Guys will be up and down all year.

Just bite the bullet, get them up now and have them more acclimated for the second half of the year.

I agree with all of that except for maybe it being only for a couple of weeks.  They need to commit to giving whomever they bring up at least 100-150 ABs of regular ABs minimum, and if they are showing signs of improvement (or if they are productive early on) keep going through the rest of the season.  

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, geschinger said:

I think they have to bite the bullet and do it and should do it even if it means less wins in 2023.  But I'd rather him stay in AAA if the alternative is to promote him and play him sporadically.  That does no one any good.

I love the great start to the year but I do think it changes the approach.  If we weren't sitting with the 4th best record in baseball I think we'd be much more likely to promote and let guys struggle than we will legitimately contending.  I'm just skeptical we'll eventually sit Santander or Hays, make moves with the middle infield to give guys like Cowser, Ortiz and Westburg the 300 ABs they should get this summer.

I don’t want to see anymore “waving the white flag moves” like sitting Hays and/or Santander. Not this year, we’re no longer in rebuild mode. Hays and Santander have been some of our best hitters this season. There is a SUPER LOW probability that ANY rookie will come up and match let alone exceed their production.

However, the Orioles are sort of at a crossroads based on the way the roster is constructed and the amount of talent pushing from the minors, especially at the AAA.

There is no realistic way to retain and play everybody regularly. Obviously a trade or trades is the rational solution to the problem, as we do not possess the adequate starting pitching to be serious post season contenders. 

It is quite possible that as Westburg and others continue to kill it at AAA, they are only adding to their trade value. So at some point we can package a few guys (either from the Majors, Minors, or a combination of both).

I don’t see a realistic scenario where Westburg, Ortiz, and Cowser ALL get to stay and play on the O’s regularly. And that is okay with me because IMO we have to figure out a way to acquire the most significant missing piece to our championship puzzle (whether this year or any other) and that is a true number 1 starting pitcher. Nothing we have now resembles anything close to that (save for Grayson’s potential but we can see that he is very far away from realizing that).

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, geschinger said:

I agree with all of that except for maybe it being only for a couple of weeks.  They need to commit to giving whomever they bring up at least 100-150 ABs of regular ABs minimum, and if they are showing signs of improvement (or if they are productive early on) keep going through the rest of the season.  

The few weeks thing was about playing them (especially westburg) everyday before Urias comes up. Once Urias comes up, Westburg may only be able to play 4 times a week(unless he’s tearing the cover off the ball), which is fine and justifies him being in the majors.

[geschinger]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The few weeks thing was about playing them (especially westburg) everyday before Urias comes up. Once Urias comes up, Westburg may only be able to play 4 times a week(unless he’s tearing the cover off the ball), which is fine and justifies him being in the majors.

What are you doing with Ortiz in that scenario?

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, geschinger said:

What are you doing with Ortiz in that scenario?

Sorry, forgot about him. Well it’s the same thing I guess…maybe Westburg isn’t playing everyday but they play 4-5 times a week each.  If AS can handle first, it opens up DH 1-2 days a week (Mountcastle doesn’t need every single day at bats).

While Mateo is slumping, Ortiz can still get a lot of time at SS and really, that can and should continue anyway.

Gunnar will still get the 1-2 games off a week, especially vs tough lefties.

And if they feel Westburg can handle the OF, he can go out there as well..spell Hays at times, maybe the occasional day gig for Cedric and Cowser goes to CF.

The Os love versatility, so use it to your advantage.

Either way, there are plenty of at bats to justify these guys all being here. They don’t need to be on a 600 at bat pace to justify it. A 400+ at bat pace is more than fine.

Edited May 16, 2023 by Sports Guy

[geschinger]

15 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t want to see anymore “waving the white flag moves” like sitting Hays and/or Santander. Not this year, we’re no longer in rebuild mode. Hays and Santander have been some of our best hitters this season. There is a SUPER LOW probability that ANY rookie will come up and match let alone exceed their production.

However, the Orioles are sort of at a crossroads based on the way the roster is constructed and the amount of talent pushing from the minors, especially at the AAA.

There is no realistic way to retain and play everybody regularly. Obviously a trade or trades is the rational solution to the problem, as we do not possess the adequate starting pitching to be serious post season contenders. 

It is quite possible that as Westburg and others continue to kill it at AAA, they are only adding to their trade value. So at some point we can package a few guys (either from the Majors, Minors, or a combination of both).

I don’t see a realistic scenario where Westburg, Ortiz, and Cowser ALL get to stay and play on the O’s regularly. And that is okay with me because IMO we have to figure out a way to acquire the most significant missing piece to our championship puzzle (whether this year or any other) and that is a true number 1 starting pitcher. Nothing we have now resembles anything close to that (save for Grayson’s potential but we can see that he is very far away from realizing that).

While I would be aggressive and do all three I recognize that is not going to happen. But for the Orioles to maximize the potential of their talent and maximize their potential for consistent contention they have to take that likely initial poor performance acclimation period medicine at some point.

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, geschinger said:

While I would be aggressive and do all three I recognize that is not going to happen. But for the Orioles to maximize the potential of their talent and maximize their potential for consistent contention they have to take that likely initial poor performance acclimation period medicine at some point.

I guess we see things differently and that’s cool.

I don’t see us “maximizing our talent” or potential with the organizational talent equation being as unbalanced as it is now. Our very best pitching prospect BY FAR is struggling to acclimate to the Majors (unsurprisingly so). There is no better talent coming up at any time in the near future from the pitching side than Grayson Rodriguez. 

It doesn’t make sense to try to squeeze all of these positional players onto the team just to say hey look “they are all homegrown and awesome”, when we don’t have the necessary  pitching talent ANYWHERE in the org. Even if Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz, and Norby all come up and do extremely well, we still won’t have a roster than can realistically challenge for a World Series because we don’t have the pitching.

Some of these guys and/or others will need to be used to acquire that pitching talent. I just believe that the Minor League guys may have more trade value than the Major League guys. But maybe a combination of the two is what it will take?

[Sports Guy]

And btw, some of these things will take care of itself. Guys will slump, get hurt, get traded, etc…at bats will be there for these guys.

Edited May 16, 2023 by Sports Guy

[geschinger]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Sorry, forgot about him. Well it’s the same thing I guess…maybe Westburg isn’t playing everyday but they play 4-5 times a week each.  If AS can handle first, it opens up DH 1-2 days a week (Mountcastle doesn’t need every single day at bats).

While Mateo is slumping, Ortiz can still get a lot of time at SS and really, that can and should continue anyway.

Gunnar will still get the 1-2 games off a week, especially vs tough lefties.

And if they feel Westburg can handle the OF, he can go out there as well..spell Hays at times, maybe the occasional day gig for Cedric and Cowser goes to CF.

The Os love versatility, so use it to your advantage.

Either way, there are plenty of at bats to justify these guys all being here. They don’t need to be on a 600 at bat pace to justify it. A 400+ at bat pace is more than fine.

I'd be happy with that scenario.  I don't think 4-5 days a week would not be detrimental to their timely development.  I'd rather they stay in Norfolk than play 1-2 days a week.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, geschinger said:

I'd be happy with that scenario.  I don't think 4-5 days a week would not be detrimental to their timely development.  I'd rather they stay in Norfolk than play 1-2 days a week.

Yea I agree there but there is no reason for that scenario to be what plays out, so honestly I wouldn’t be worried about it.

[geschinger]

58 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I guess we see things differently and that’s cool.

I don’t see us “maximizing our talent” or potential with the organizational talent equation being as unbalanced as it is now. Our very best pitching prospect BY FAR is struggling to acclimate to the Majors (unsurprisingly so). There is no better talent coming up at any time in the near future from the pitching side than Grayson Rodriguez. 

It doesn’t make sense to try to squeeze all of these positional players onto the team just to say hey look “they are all homegrown and awesome”, when we don’t have the necessary  pitching talent ANYWHERE in the org. Even if Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz, and Norby all come up and do extremely well, we still won’t have a roster than can realistically challenge for a World Series because we don’t have the pitching.

Some of these guys and/or others will need to be used to acquire that pitching talent. I just believe that the Minor League guys may have more trade value than the Major League guys. But maybe a combination of the two is what it will take?

I want the Orioles to be Astros 2.0 where they are in contention every year rather than going all-in to maximize chances in any one year.  

I don't think it's either or, in fact I think it's easier to trade for a pitcher with an MLB regular with 4+ years of service time than it is with an unproven prospect.  I suspect if one of Westburg / Ortiz proves they can be a capable MLB player with upside has a lot more trade value than they do as a AAA player.  

I also don't think there are going to be any true TOR starters that would make sense to part with multiple top 100 prospects for.  Much more likely is a veteran TOR starter with a large contract on a team that has fallen out of contention - the cost to acquire those type of guys is more reasonable - i.e. look at what Houston gave up for Verlander.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, geschinger said:

I want the Orioles to be Astros 2.0 where they are in contention every year rather than going all-in to maximize chances in any one year.  

 

The Astros draft pitching.

[geschinger]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Astros draft pitching.

Astros 2.0 - v2 of the plan forgoes Aiken and Appel-type mistakes.