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03/17 Twins


Yossarian

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    • Realistically, Mullins has been in the 17th percentile or lower in xwOBA every year besides 2021. That’s Mateo territory and it’s pretty clear that 2021 is an outlier. He has pretty dramatically out performed his expected numbers the last 4 years, but if he doesn’t, this is what it’s going to look like because his expected stats are even worse than his actual stats right now.  They just need him to be at even a 90 wRC+ or so. With that and his base running and fielding, he’d probably still be worth close to 3 WAR. 
    • Slow down the bat as in not move it? I don’t post much and this is the first time i’ve shown any heat about a player, manager, coach, or owner in my 17 years on OH, but under the circumstances, I see only three possible reasons Cowser would have been “thinking something off speed” - the scouts and batting “strategists “ didn’t know or communicate as much about Romano as Palmer did on the broadcast , Cowser wasn’t paying attention in class, or he doesn’t take coaching well.
    • But we do. Cowser in center, Kjerstad in left. Commit to the future of this team. 
    • I'd like to see Cedric trying to hit to the opposite field occasionally. He basically has had zero hard contact to left field. 
    • I didn’t like the decision to end Burnes’ night after 85 pitches.  I also didn’t like using both Kimbrel and Cano for the 4th time in 6 days.   
    • Bright spots: - Gunnar, Adley, Westburg, and O’Hearn are legit. Mountcastle is a solid 1B with his ROS projections (~120 wRC+ although higher would obviously be nice). That’s 5 well above average hitters to put in the lineup most days  - The rotation with a healthy Bradish and Rodriguez is going to be really good    Concerns/Questions: - Mateo or Urias can’t be starting come playoff time against RHP’s. Will Holliday be ready and if not, what does Elias do? - How does Elias address the back end of the bullpen?  - What happens in the OF? Does Cowser make adjustments? What do they do if Mullins continues to struggle? How does Hays fit in and does he hit better than he has dating back to the 2nd half of last year?    I think overall, there seems to be a consensus on their needs right now. Back end relief help and another infielder, which should come externally (pieces not on the 26 man right now). I feel pretty confident Elias will sort that out. The outfield question is a little more interesting to me because if Mullins continues struggling, Elias needs to make a trade. He’s been worth 0.3 WAR in 100 games with a 69 wRC+ since June 1st of last year. And Hays is at 0.4 WAR in 113 games with an 86 wRC+ in that same timeframe. Neither has been a quality player the past year, let alone starting caliber on a team with World Series aspirations. And then you have Cowser who has been scuffling of late. Ideally, Cowser makes adjustments at the plate and Cedric hits at anything close to league average and you’re fine. But if not, it’ll be interesting to see what happens. 
    • I think the club consciously took a very aggressive approach early in the season but now we’re not making life difficult for opposing pitchers.  We need to get back to being more patient.   I’m ready to see some of Hays.  Mullins and Cowser haven’t hit a lick over several weeks, and have been terrible in key situations.  Hays looked awful until just before his injury but let’s get him in some games and see if he’s ready to contribute.  Stowers too.    
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