Othani discussion

[Sports Guy]

Just Regular has brought up Othani a lot and he likely will be the biggest FA in MLb history and assuming a good year and health, he will get the biggest contract in MLB history.

For the moment, put aside the idea of whether or not he would come here and let’s pause on the idea of if JA would approve the deal or not.

Would you want the Os to give him a 10ish year deal at 50M per?

The expectation is that he could see 500M.  The Os have very little in terms of a payroll commitment long term and maybe they even slightly front load the deal while most of the team is making nothing.

Theres huge risk in a deal like this however, for whatever reason, it does seem like a lot of the star Asian players age well and keep themselves in good shape.  He doesn’t have a lot of risk of injury as an offensive player but obviously there is always a risk as a pitcher.  And eventually maybe you make him a closer if that becomes an issue.

 

[Frobby]

I cannot imagine him wanting to come here or the Orioles being willing to do what it takes to sign him.   But let’s get past that and focus on, would I want to have the Orioles win the auction to sign him?   Probably not, I think.  He’d just suck up too many of the team’s resources and I don’t like putting so many of our eggs in one basket.  He’s a really great player, and would be super-fun to have on the team, but is just going to cost more than it makes sense for us to pay.  

[Aristotelian]

I will be very interested to follow his trade market in July. I don't think I would do $500M for any player, but if I were to spend big on one player it would be him. Definitely a special talent.

My (also completely unsubstantiated) theory about Asian players would be that they may tend to be undervalued due to perceived superiority of MLB and racial stereotyping. So I would focus on trying to find the next Ohtani. 

[Sports Guy]

There is fairly large Asian population in the DMV area. Not as much as out in California or NY but it’s still substantial compared to most areas.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/432719/us-metropolitan-areas-with-the-highest-percentage-of-asian-population/
 

Taking this conversation a step forward…John Angelos wants a show. He wants entertainment and that is perhaps more important to him than winning on the field. 
 

This brings him what he is looking for. You will have an entire country of Os fans. You will take away from the Nats. There are a lot of angles to look at here.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

I will be very interested to follow his trade market in July. I don't think I would do $500M for any player, but if I were to spend big on one player it would be him. Definitely a special talent.

My (also completely unsubstantiated) theory about Asian players would be that they may tend to be undervalued due to perceived superiority of MLB and racial stereotyping. So I would focus on trying to find the next Ohtani. 

You did see the contract that the Red Sox gave Yoshida right?  He got 5/90 and the Sox paid a 15M posting fee.

That doesn't sound undervalued to me.

Of course we have no idea if the Orioles would even be willing to partake in the posting system and if they aren't, any players they get will be older.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I will be very interested to follow his trade market in July. I don't think I would do $500M for any player, but if I were to spend big on one player it would be him. Definitely a special talent.

My (also completely unsubstantiated) theory about Asian players would be that they may tend to be undervalued due to perceived superiority of MLB and racial stereotyping. So I would focus on trying to find the next Ohtani. 

I would not be surprised to see the Mets make a trade offer for Ohtani at the July deadline as they seem to be determined to try and win a World Series. I don't know what the Mets could offer up in terms of a trade package.

As long as the Angelos family is in charge they're not going to make a play the likes of Ohtani. We don't even know how they will approach resigning Adley when the time comes or will they even make a serious attempt to resign him.

[Moose Milligan]

You're essentially getting two top flight players for that money.  10 years/250 for a great pitcher and 10/250 for a great hitter.  At that rate, it's kind of a bargain.

Of course I'd be worried about injuries, but to SG's point I think he takes fantastic care of himself.  And even if he can't pitch, he can still probably be an effective hitter.  He'd probably be the guy to take aim at the warehouse and hit it.

I don't know if he hits free agency but I wouldn't be upset at the Orioles for spending 10/500 on him.  I think it's more likely that a team trades 5-7 of their top 10 list for him if they're in a playoff hunt, knowing they're going to have to spend 10/500 to keep him and not make that trade look terrible for a 3 month rental.

If he hits free agency, I hope the Orioles make a run at him.  It would be quite a coup.

[Pickles]

He will never come here.

The O's could never afford him.

It's a non-starter.

[maybenxtyr]

I was thinking about him while listening to the game last night. He has to be the best player in the game right now, right? Yes, as a fan I would love to see the O's sign him...even at 10/500. I still believe he's going to have to give up pitching but it'd be awesome to see him play daily.

[Pickles]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is fairly large Asian population in the DMV area. Not as much as out in California or NY but it’s still substantial compared to most areas.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/432719/us-metropolitan-areas-with-the-highest-percentage-of-asian-population/
 

Taking this conversation a step forward…John Angelos wants a show. He wants entertainment and that is perhaps more important to him than winning on the field. 
 

This brings him what he is looking for. You will have an entire country of Os fans. You will take away from the Nats. There are a lot of angles to look at here.

This is such an American way of looking at things.

Ohtani doesn't care about "Asian" culture.  He's Japanese.  The fact that there are Thai, Cambodian, and Pakistani, etc. populations in the DMV couldn't mean less to Ohtani in determing where he lives.

Lest we forget, he gave up a TON of money already to play on the West Coast because of the commute to Japan.  

Edited March 22, 2023 by Pickles

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You did see the contract that the Red Sox gave Yoshida right?  He got 5/90 and the Sox paid a 15M posting fee.

That doesn't sound undervalued to me.

Of course we have no idea if the Orioles would even be willing to partake in the posting system and if they aren't, any players they get will be older.

And plenty of Asian players have outperformed their contracts. We got incredible value out of Chen, not so much out of Kim. Admittedly I have not studied the overall track record systematically. Will be interesting to see if Red Sox got a bargain or not. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

And plenty of Asian players have outperformed their contracts. We got incredible value out of Chen, not so much out of Kim. Admittedly I have not studied the overall track record systematically. Will be interesting to see if Red Sox got a bargain or not. 

I'd say that Chen was undervalued because he'd has some injuries that he'd been dealing with that had sapped his velocity.  He got fully healthy with the O's and the velocity came back.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

This is such an American way of looking at things.

Ohtani doesn't care about "Asian" culture.  He's Japanese.  The fact that there are Thai, Cambodian, and Pakistani, etc. populations in the DMV couldn't mean less to Ohtani in determing where he lives.

Lest we forget, he gave up a TON of money already to play on the West Coast because of the commute to Japan.  

Doesn't care about "Asian" culture, yet gave up a ton of money to play on the west coast because of the commute to Japan.

 

 

 

 

[Pickles]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Doesn't care about "Asian" culture, yet gave up a ton of money to play on the west coast because of the commute to Japan.

 

 

 

 

Yes, he cares about being close to his homeland: Japan.

He doesn't care if there's a sizeable Vietnamese population in Northern VA.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Doesn't care about "Asian" culture, yet gave up a ton of money to play on the west coast because of the commute to Japan.

 

 

 

 

It does make sense if you phrase it better.

He's Japanese, he appeared to prefer playing on the west coast because of the relative proximity to Japan.

He does not appear to care about Asian, but non-Japanese population centers.

No one would say that an Ukrainian Basketball player will be more likely to sign with the Bucks because of the large German American population in Milwaukee.