Othani discussion

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, AnythingO's said:

I know you honestly believe that they can afford 130-150M payroll but the Forbes data doesn't support that if they make any profit. Maybe 125-130M payroll as a break even but payroll includes 15-20M of expenses over salaries so that caps salaries at about $110M. Of course greater revenue would be likely with Ohtani but how much does attendance add to revenue, I really don't know how to forecast that. Absent increased revenue, expecting JA to reach into his own pocket is folly.

I think JA considers all payroll expenditures to be reaching into his pocket.

[deward]

Ohtani is going to be one of the most interesting free-agent case studies of all time. He's a unicorn; I doubt any of us will live to see anyone else quite like him again. As it stands now, in his prime, he's easily worth $50+MM a year, but how do you project an aging curve for someone like him? There's no history of similar players to fall back on. If he stays healthy and performing around his current level for 7-8 years of a 10 year deal, then I would say you got your money's worth, but the risk is obviously huge. 

All that said, in an alternate universe where he would consider Baltimore as a destination, of course I would want the team to offer him whatever it took to get him in an O's uniform. He's the most entertaining player I've ever seen. I'll hope that scenario involves a new owner that wants to make a splash and is willing to support a payroll approaching $200MM for a while. 

[24fps]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If things go as planned, for the next 5 years, you have a boatload of talent around him making collectively very little money. 

Maybe you look to trade him down the line?  Maybe you keep producing cheap talent and can always surround his contract with 10-15 guys making the league minimum. Quite frankly, that should be the plan anyway.

You keep producing cheap talent to give the organization the most flexibility to stay competitive long-term. Your proposal to give Othani 35-40% of a probable Orioles budget puts the team on an extremely narrow path and removes almost all flexibility.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, 24fps said:

You keep producing cheap talent to give the organization the most flexibility to stay competitive long-term. Your proposal to give Othani 35-40% of a probable Orioles budget puts the team on an extremely narrow path and removes almost all flexibility.

Or, by having all that cheap talent, it gives you the flexibility to make a huge splash like this. 
 

There are 2 ways of looking at that.

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I know you honestly believe that they can afford 130-150M payroll but the Forbes data doesn't support that if they make any profit. Maybe 125-130M payroll as a break even but payroll includes 15-20M of expenses over salaries so that caps salaries at about $110M. Of course greater revenue would be likely with Ohtani but how much does attendance add to revenue, I really don't know how to forecast that. Absent increased revenue, expecting JA to reach into his own pocket is folly.

I believe because they did it…recently

[AnythingO's]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I believe because they did it…recently

Yes they did, under PA, while he had income from the law firm. The Forbes data shows that they lost money those years as well. JA doesn't have any other income stream.

[24fps]

53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Or, by having all that cheap talent, it gives you the flexibility to make a huge splash like this. 
 

There are 2 ways of looking at that.

Okay, which of the two approaches do you most support?  I know this is meant to be a hypothetical (the regular season really can't happen soon enough can it?), but without at least a little common sense, it's not particular entertaining.  Me, I support a system that permits things like locking up Adley, Gunnar, GrayRod long-term along with supporting a first-class development program and strategically spending on free agents when needed.  Oh, arbitration raises too when they still make fiscal sense.

Hard to do when 35-40% of your yearly budget is tied up in one player.

And don't get me started if said player, in a frenzy of patriot fervor during the WBC, does a little happy dance after completing a save and collapses in a heap.  Don't laugh, it could happen.

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

Yes they did, under PA, while he had income from the law firm. The Forbes data shows that they lost money those years as well. JA doesn't have any other income stream.

The Forbes data is full of sh!t because it doesn’t have everything..ie MASN.

And the team will start winning and bring in more revenue and if you had Othani, that would really boost a lot of things. 
 

In other words, the data you are looking at is completely irrelevant.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Sports Guy

[AnythingO's]

While I agree the Forbes data are flawed, they are all we have. I don't believe PA ever really lost money but the Forbes data does give us a way to compare year to year on the same (flawed or incomplete) basis. Those data show that for 2016 to 2018 with Revenues of $251-253M and Salaries of $143-164M the team lost from $2.1 to 26M.

[RZNJ]

Ohtani is the most valuable player of all time and Mike Trout is one of the greatest players of all time.   This is a public service announcement from the L.A. Angels.    500M on one player.   Unnecessary and stupid.

[deward]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Ohtani is the most valuable player of all time and Mike Trout is one of the greatest players of all time.   This is a public service announcement from the L.A. Angels.    500M on one player.   Unnecessary and stupid.

Or perhaps the Angels just aren't a well-run organization and have managed to squander having two of the very best players in all of baseball.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, deward said:

Or perhaps the Angels just aren't a well-run organization and have managed to squander having two of the very best players in all of baseball.

A well run organization wouldn’t bet 500M on one player when they can’t afford to lose that bet.

[deward]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

A well run organization wouldn’t bet 500M on one player when they can’t afford to lose that bet.

At his best, Ohtani is effectively two players.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, interloper said:

He would never come here, and we would never tie up that much money in one player. Not much to discuss, there is no world in which this happens. 

It’s purely a hypothetical discussion.  

[Yossarian]

1 hour ago, deward said:

At his best, Ohtani is effectively two players.

And if Ohtani gets injured, you're out two players.