Othani discussion

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

No he’s not

Sure he is. 

He might not be the most decorated player of all time...he might not be the most accomplished player of all time, those are different arguments.   He might retire while not holding any significant records.

Is he the greatest talent to ever put on an MLB uniform?  Undoubtedly, 100% yes.  No one else has thrown 100 mph fastballs and hit 400 foot homers with regularity.  And he runs like a gazelle to boot.  On the WBC broadcast last night, they explained that Babe Ruth's two way career really only lasted two years.  Ohtani is past that.  

 

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Fair enough.  And I wasn't making that argument, SG was.  

I really don't care if there's much of an economic impact if he were to sign here.  Certainly the Orioles would become more followed by people in Japan, but what does that mean for revenue and how's it measured?  I believe a lot of people here would pretend to know but it's hard to say.  It would make the Orioles brand a bit more global but again, that's hard to measure.  Is he worth it?  Probably.  

If Ohtani really did sign with the Angels due to the proximity of being closer to Japan, then he's most likely interested in West Coast based teams.  And he wants to win, that narrows it down to probably the Dodgers, Padres and Giants, maybe the Mariners.  

I'll acknowledge that it's possible I misjudged SG's point in referencing the Asian population of the DMV.

However, this is one of those discussions similar to how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

He would never sign here.  We could never afford him.

I get it that SG's trying to spark a hypothetical conversation but even hypothetically there isn't much to talk about.

IF we could get him then yeah, of course we should.  He's the best player in baseball.

BUT, again, he would never sign here and we could never afford him.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Pickles

[Jagwar]

The Orioles don't even have a current payroll of $50M (excluding deferred contracts). And they're going to give him a $50M annual salary?

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

I'll acknowledge that it's possible I misjudged SG's point in referencing the Asian population of the DMV.

However, this is one of those discussions similar to how many angles can dance on the head of a pin.

He would never sign here.  We could never afford him.

I get it that SG's trying to spark a hypothetical conversation but even hypothetically there isn't much to talk about.

IF we could get him then yeah, of course we should.  He's the best player in baseball.

BUT, again, he would never sign here and we could never afford him.

Agreed on all points.

I think a more interesting hypothetical would be...if we're in the playoff hunt this year and the Angels are known to be listening to offers on Ohtani for a trade...who do we trade from our system and are we only trading if we have a 48 hour window to sign him to a long term deal?  Or does anyone want to trade a good chunk of our carefully stockpiled system without a long term deal done and run the risk of trying to sign him in free agency?

In that scenario, I'd only trade for him if we could hammer out a long term deal before pulling the trigger on that trade.  It'd be tempting to trade for him no matter what but all the Old Bay in the world probably isn't enough to entice him to come back after his time here as a rental is over.  And if that costs us guys like Westburg, Ortiz, Mayo, Norby, Kjerstad,  Povich, etc, count me out.

[Pickles]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Agreed on all points.

I think a more interesting hypothetical would be...if we're in the playoff hunt this year and the Angels are known to be listening to offers on Ohtani for a trade...who do we trade from our system and are we only trading if we have a 48 hour window to sign him to a long term deal?  Or does anyone want to trade a good chunk of our carefully stockpiled system without a long term deal done and run the risk of trying to sign him in free agency?

In that scenario, I'd only trade for him if we could hammer out a long term deal before pulling the trigger on that trade.  It'd be tempting to trade for him no matter what but all the Old Bay in the world probably isn't enough to entice him to come back after his time here as a rental is over.  And if that costs us guys like Westburg, Ortiz, Mayo, Norby, Kjerstad,  Povich, etc, count me out.

I think you'd have to make the trade with the understanding that you weren't going to be able to resign him, and price that in accordingly.  But, just hypothetically, I would be willing to trade for him with the full understanding he was a rental if the circumstances were favorable.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Pickles said:

I'll acknowledge that it's possible I misjudged SG's point in referencing the Asian population of the DMV.

However, this is one of those discussions similar to how many angles can dance on the head of a pin.

He would never sign here.  We could never afford him.

I get it that SG's trying to spark a hypothetical conversation but even hypothetically there isn't much to talk about.

IF we could get him then yeah, of course we should.  He's the best player in baseball.

BUT, again, he would never sign here and we could never afford him.

But does best player mean we should go after him?

Bringing this back to Frobbys point. That’s the “scary” part to this for me.

I’m not sure. I know I would be excited about it, no doubt.  And I know I would want to be there and in that atmosphere.

[backwardsk]

With the understanding it’s a pipe dream and won’t happen, in theory, he would be the guy to give $500M to.

You are getting a top of the rotation arm and a middle of the order bat all in one.  Your strength is the farm system, so you have cost controlled guys supporting him.  You have a roster advantage, I believe, where you can carry a ninth bullpen guy. (Not sure if there is a caveat here, but it seems like it would be the case.  
 

The rise in Japanese interest in the team would offset the cost more than say getting Soto.

I’d absolutely do it.

[Ohfan67]

58 minutes ago, sevastras said:

I would be curious what kind of financial impact it would have for the Orioles revenue if they did sign him. Merchandise across the country and Japan, increase attendance, those type of things. How much would it offset his salary? What if he is the guy that helps them win the World Series 4 out of 6 years? That increases the Orioles brand even more. Now people know who AR and Grayson and Henderson and are buying their merchandise even more as well because the Os are now their team because they are winning. 
I am sure someone in marketing for a team has modeled it all out and can put a rough number on it. But I think all of that is a factor in what a team would be willing to pay and I do think that number may be higher of a return for the Orioles than SD for example. Also, you have insurance for injuries. You may just have to be worried about a drop in production. 

Helps them win the World Series four out of six years? Ohtani has been with the Angels for five years and they haven't even had a winning season with Ohtani on the team. That includes 2019 when Mike Trout was the AL MVP. Ohtani is a great player and a great story, but thinking one signing will magically bring World Series titles and economic bliss is fool's gold. Arod and the Texas Rangers are an excellent example of how similar justifications were made for the signing, the player performed great, the team included a lot of other star names, and yet the Rangers had losing seasons every year Arod was on the team despite Arod's AL MVP performance in 2003 and he was runner-up to the MVP in 2002. These things don't work out. 

[Frobby]

20 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Adley’s really got his work cut out for him to win MVP. Haha. 
 

Ohtani might get 10/750 if both NY teams get involved. He’s not just the greatest FA of all time, but in this moment… he’s the greatest player of all time. 

I’m not sure if I’d say he’s the greatest free agent of all time, simply because of his age.  This is his age 28 season, and just barely, as he turns 29 on July 5.   He’s certainly the most unique free agent of all time.   Is he more likely to produce more value from age 29 onward than ARod produced from age 25 on?   I’m skeptical of that.   I won’t say it’s impossible, but it’s not that likely.  

Edited March 23, 2023 by Frobby
I mistakenly said this was Ohtani’s age 29 season, and he was turning 30 on July 5. He’s 28, turning 29.

[Pickles]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But does best player mean we should go after him?

Bringing this back to Frobbys point. That’s the “scary” part to this for me.

I’m not sure. I know I would be excited about it, no doubt.  And I know I would want to be there and in that atmosphere.

Well, the only reason to not go after him would be because we can't afford him.  So again it comes back to the harsh reality: He won't sign here, and we can't afford him.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, the only reason to not go after him would be because we can't afford him.  So again it comes back to the harsh reality: He won't sign here, and we can't afford him.

I don’t buy that we can’t afford him, especially  with the cheap talent the org has.

They can afford a 130-150M payroll. So, do you want that much of the payroll with one guy?  That’s a tough question especially since he is 2 players in 1.  

[24fps]

How high would the team payroll need to be for $50 mil per year to a single player be sufficiently protected?  I would say at least $400 million.  Lesser teams need not apply and it's safe to say that includes the Orioles.

[jamalshw]

This is too far in fantasyland to even consider to be honest. Not only do you have to suspend the idea of "would the Orioles do it," you also have to suspend the flow down considerations. Would the Orioles expand the payroll beyond $150M/year? Would the Orioles re-invest the undoubtable money that he generates from the Japanese fan base? 

With that in mind, I'm going to approach this as a generic mid-market team with payroll flexibility and a lot of young talent. That's removing all the side things. 

Would I send 10 years at $50M/year? The short answer is: probably not, but maybe. 

The contract would cover ages 29-39. Lets assume the back 4 years are going to be overpays (the last couple probably by a lot). The risk is losing him to injury is, in effect, losing two players. 

Now, the contract is for two players so you can say $20M/year for the DH and $30M/year for the starter. That's not terrible in today's prices, but the difference here is that we are assuming a small market team with up and coming young players who will need to be paid in a few years. Most mid-market teams can probably support a couple big deals like that, but in most cases, it would behoove such teams to spread it out and not have both big deals aging at the same time. 

Overall, I think he's priced out of all but the top 5-8 markets in the game. 

 

 

[Pickles]

33 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Sure he is. 

He might not be the most decorated player of all time...he might not be the most accomplished player of all time, those are different arguments.   He might retire while not holding any significant records.

Is he the greatest talent to ever put on an MLB uniform?  Undoubtedly, 100% yes.  No one else has thrown 100 mph fastballs and hit 400 foot homers with regularity.  And he runs like a gazelle to boot.  On the WBC broadcast last night, they explained that Babe Ruth's two way career really only lasted two years.  Ohtani is past that.  

 

My response to this would be Ruth was a better pitcher than Ohtani and he was a better hitter than Ohtani.

Ohtani's career high OPS+ for a year is lower than the Babe's career mark.

And if it had existed, Babe should/would have won the 1916 Cy Young award.  As good as Ohtani has been on the mound, he has never been the league's best pitcher.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, 24fps said:

How high would the team payroll need to be for $50 mil per year to a single player be sufficiently protected?  I would say at least $400 million.  Lesser teams need not apply and it's safe to say that includes the Orioles.

There used to be a yardstick that teams which spent more than 20% of their payroll on one player normally were not able to contend.  I don’t know how true that’s been the last 10-15 years.