Jump to content

USA Today Panel picks Orioles last in AL East


Tony-OH

Recommended Posts

Take this for what it's worth, especially the source (USA Today hasn't been worth anything since the 90s.), but the Orioles aggregate record comes out to 78-84 and last in the stacked AL East. If this happens, how would you feel about Elias and his crew after the offseason he had?

338389994_932440507901044_5227711076206517039_n.thumb.png.cda41daaf2774512bf799b744a9993a9.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess it would depend on why it happened. If they finish six games below .500 because Gibson and Irvin get lit up 2 out of every 5 days and the bullpen regresses, then the front office will look pretty bad. If it's because of injuries to the starting lineup and GRod and Hall being unable to compete at the big league level, then maybe it won't be their fault.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wouldn't love it, but depending on how certain individual players perform, it probably wouldn't change my expectations for the franchise going forward.

I wouldn't care about it's relationship to the offseason, as I never expected big acquisitions, now or in the future.  If anything, you could argue it would support Elias' approach this offseason, as the team wasn't as close/good as some projected.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it would be disappointing to finish under .500 this season let alone win less than 80 games.  However there are a lot of variable in a 162 game season that you cannot blame just some offseason moves on.  If the team gets hit with the injury bug and we lose a few starting pitchers then I wont blame that on Elias and his off season.  Now if the team stays healthy, Frazier is on the bench 75% of the year and we lose 84 games I might be a little more upset about this past offseason.

I am going to wait until the deadline to get a better idea of how I feel about the way Elias is building this club up.  I think with the depth of our minor league system, if we can stay competitive Elias should be able to fill in any missing pieces via trades.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Moshagge3 said:

I guess it would depend on why it happened. If they finish six games below .500 because Gibson and Irvin get lit up 2 out of every 5 days and the bullpen regresses, then the front office will look pretty bad. If it's because of injuries to the starting lineup and GRod and Hall being unable to compete at the big league level, then maybe it won't be their fault.

How would they not be at fault, at least to some degree, if their top 2 pitching prospects can't compete at the big league level?  We going to blame Dan?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Honestly if the team ends up at 78-84 you probably won't be able to point at the offseason as being the problem.  Would take at least 88 wins in this scenario to make the playoffs.  I don't think 10 additional wins were out there at anything close to a reasonable price.

The Orioles only needed to improve 4 wins from last season squad to have a playoff chance in this scenario. Basically they are saying that even with the addition of Gunnar and Adley all year, Elias's offseason regressed the team six wins. 

Now me personally, I think this team goes into this year as a .500ish team give or take 2-4 wins, so the 78-84 is not unreasonable.

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would separate my feelings about Elias & crew overall from my feelings about last offseason.  I feel that Elias has done a very good job overall and has built an organization that should be competitive for the next decade or so regardless of how this season turns out.  My opinion on that probably won’t change, barring something drastic.  But it certainly would cement my opinion that the O’s had a “D” offseason.   

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The Orioles only needed to improve 4 wins from last season squad to have a playoff chance in this scenario. Basically they are saying that even with the addition of Gunnar and Adley all year, Elias's offseason regressed the team six wins. 

Now me personally, I think this team goes into this year as a .500ish team give or take 2-4 wins, so the 78-84 is not unreasonable.

If you are of the mind that last season's team overachieved than you could improve the team and they could still finish with a worse record.

The 2013 team had a superior run differential than the 2012 team and yet won fewer games.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




  • Posts

    • I don’t like the wall. I think it’s affecting our hitters. I’ve mentioned before that I think it has totally warped Mountcastle into something he was never really meant to be. The guy came up as a pull-heavy HR hitter, and in his first season-plus (725 PAs), he puts up 38 HRs and a 116 wRC+. Since then, the wRC+ is down to 110, and his approach has totally changed, with his pull numbers plummeting (down from 39% in 2021 to less than 28% this year). He still hits the ball hard, but constantly underachieves his batted ball data — probably because he’s trying to avoid the pull field and hitting balls to the deepest parts of pretty much every other park. Will the same thing happen to Mayo? Maybe he has more pure power, but it’s always going to be a challenge for a RH slugger to survive with that wall. So much harder to do damage.   Beyond that, I think it’s also creating a serious risk of changing our LH hitters’ approaches too. These guys (Henderson, Holliday, Cowser, 2/3 of Adley) have come up with a reputation for being able to drive the ball to all fields. But how long does that continue when they just can’t hit it out to the opposite field? Our LH hitters had a combined 44 wRC+ at OPACY, and only one HR. They had the 3rd most balls hit to LF at home by LHHs, but the lowest wRC+ of any team on those balls (for the second straight year). The Royals, ironically enough, were the only team that was lower than a 70 wRC+ — that’s how much worse our lefties fared going oppo (at OPACY) than everyone else’s. By player: Gunnar Henderson: 112 wRC+ / .160 ISO (51 PAs) Adley Rutschman: 10 wRC+ / .026 ISO (38 PAs) Anthony Santander: 14 wRC+ / .095 ISO (43 PAs) Colton Cowser: 58 wRC+ / .057 ISO (36 PAs) Ryan O’Hearn: 47 wRC+ / .091 ISO (55 PAs) Cedric Mullins: 23 wRC+ / .100 ISO (41 PAs) Jackson Holliday: -72 wRC+ / .000 ISO (16 PAs)   On the road, they had a combined 126 wRC+ (with 9 HRs) going to left field, so it’s not like they’re bad at it. It’s just Death Valley out there in LF for them at OPACY.  How long will it be until these LH guys just start going full pull-happy? Essentially, the opposite of what’s happened with Mountcastle. When (a) your team’s philosophy is to focus on doing damage and (b) you can’t DO damage to the opposite field — the rational endpoint is just to try to pull everything. I don’t think that’s a good outcome. I think it makes them much worse hitters in the other 81 games, and I think it’s a terrible waste of a bunch of really talented hitters with all-field abilities.
    • Which core players beside Adley Rutschman struggled?
    • The entire commentary on Hyde and the team seems odd but have to admit there does seem to be something off.   Team seemed adrift for most of the 2nd half.  A very talented team went off the rails midway through the season mostly due to core players struggling and rookies not performing or filling in adequately for a few injured starters.    None of the position player trade line acquisitions performed that well.     Hyde seemed in over his head or at a loss on how to correct things, but he must have convinced Elias that he has a plan to fix things.  Curious to see what happens with the coaching staff.  
    • And or give up picks for QO pitchers 
    • They've averaged 92 wins a year the last 3 years in the most difficult environment in the sport with basically the greatest disadvantages in the sport. Something tells me they know a hell of a lot more about this than you do.    
    • Not when they aren't worthy. At minimum the hitting coaches should be el gonezo
    • That is the sign of a stable and successful organization.  Firing people.  Who could argue that?
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...