Kyle Gibson 2023

[Hallas]

3 hours ago, Just Regular said:

I don't really regard Kyle Gibson as an fWAR kind of pitcher, but it was strong on him this year and is interesting to see the contrast between the initial readouts of his 2023:

rWAR = 0.9, fWAR = 2.6

Did that season feel like value of $10mm or $25mm, and will his career earnings from here be another $10mm or $25mm?     

Eight 2-year contracts to SP were given last offseason:

Quintana, Stripling, Lyles, Smyly, Heaney, Eovaldi, Manaea and Trevor Williams

The Giants, with a new manager TBD, under Gabe Kapler in consultation with Farhan's management team, basically deployed both their Stripling and Manaea in swingman roles ending up around 100 IP/each.     That kind of usage pattern in 2024 would be growth for DL Hall.

There is a huge discrepancy between DRS and Fangraphs defensive calculation (a mix of UZR and statcast OAA.)  DRS has the team at 7th in the majors with +35 defensive runs, and Fangraphs has us at -18.9 runs.  rWAR uses RA9, and then adds in a BABIP adjustment based on team defensive runs saved.  Fangraphs starts with FIP, and makes an adjustment based on their defensive calculation.  So for starters, the baseline that Fangraphs uses likes Gibson more (his FIP is 4.13) and they're adjusting that downward because they think our defense has cost us runs.  Meanwhile, with rWAR, Gibson is starting from a higher baseline, and then getting penalized further because B-R thinks our defense has been better than average.

 

He has another thing going against him, which is that his statcast xERA seems to think that his actual ERA is much closer to his true performance level, so that would lend credence to the rWAR number.  I think the rWAR adjustment seems to be a little too extreme in Gibson's case, but I'd probably only move about 1/3 of the way from the low number, so I'd price him at about 1.2 or 1.3 WAR.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

Not advocating we resign him, but Gibson is no Jordan Lyles.  

It was simply the quickest (laziest) way to make the point.

If you are going to sign a pitcher for a role like that you want next year's model, not last year's model.

Lyles had 1.0 WAR and an ERA+ of 88 in 2022 and the numbers you posted above are tainted by his 2023 season which isn't relevant to the point I was making.