Top 100 Prospect tracker on MLB.com

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, bluedog said:

Yeah it doesn't look like we picked up anyone later in the draft with the extra $ that would make up for the difference between Lawler and Cowser. Did Norby get an overslot deal?

I don’t think so but even if he did, you could have still gotten him…and Creed Willems, who I don’t believe was a target from the get go anyway.

[RZNJ]

To say they didn't like Cowser as much or even better as if there is no question about it is just disingenuous.   Even now Cowsers exit velos are among the best in the top 100 compared to Lawlar who is among the lowest.

Lawlar may turn out to have been the better pick but let's give the Orioles more credit than saying the just wanted to save money.   They are smarter than that.  

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

To say they didn't like Cowser as much or even better as if there is no question about it is just disingenuous.   Even now Cowsers exit velos are among the best in the top 100 compared to Lawlar who is among the lowest.

Lawlar may turn out to have been the better pick but let's give the Orioles more credit than saying the just wanted to save money.   They are smarter than that.  

I do think they believed in Cowser was the player that fit the hitting development mold/system best.

I went into that draft thinking SS personally.  #teamwatson because I'm a fool for tools.  

[Ridgway22]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

They took Cowser because he was cheaper and they wanted money for later.  That’s it. That’s the reason. No chance they had Cowser rated the better player with all things equal.

Sooooooo easy to say. And that's my point. I'd love to be able to see some documentation / video / reports, whatever, that reveals whatever the real truth is. You might be guided by the wisdom of Occam's razor and be 100% right. But, I suspect the complete calculus runs deeper, and just like I'd like to know the truth about JFK, and why Susie Hill dumped me in high school, I'd like to know the behind-the-scenes here. 

[Ridgway22]

On 4/14/2023 at 11:05 AM, HandsomeQuack said:

I don't quite understand the hype on Volpe. He slashed .249/.342/.460 across double- and triple-A (mostly the former) last year. I'm sure he's a great prospect but those numbers don't scream MLB-ready top 10 prospect to me.

But, but, but Jeter! Yankees!

[Sports Guy]

15 hours ago, btdart20 said:

I do think they believed in Cowser was the player that fit the hitting development mold/system best.

I went into that draft thinking SS personally.  #teamwatson because I'm a fool for tools.  

Of course they really liked Cowser for many reasons, including what you laid out. Cowser was a good pick. He’s a good player and was worthy of being selected high.(although it seems like Frelick may have been the better college OFer to take)

But that doesn’t mean they rated him above Lawlar. They even admitted that Cowser’s signing bonus demands were part of the reason they took him.

No way they had him rated, purely as a player, above Lawlar. It was someone they really liked who also saved them money to spend later.

Edited April 20, 2023 by Sports Guy

[glenn__davis]

16 hours ago, bluedog said:

Yeah it doesn't look like we picked up anyone later in the draft with the extra $ that would make up for the difference between Lawler and Cowser. Did Norby get an overslot deal?

The Draft Tracker in the draft forum is a great resource for this.  Tells you everyone that was under- or over-slot.  Trendon Craig was a late round pick up that year as well.

I do think of the drafts so far that that 2021 has been the weakest to date for Elias.  Long way to go in that evaluation obviously.

[btdart20]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course they really liked Cowser for many reasons, including what you laid out. Cowser was a good pick. He’s a good player and was worthy of being selected high.(although it seems like Frelick may have been the better college OFer to take)

But that doesn’t mean they rated him above Lawlar. They even admitted that Cowser’s signing bonus demands were part of the reason they took him.

No way they had him rated, purely as a player, above Lawlar. It was someone they really liked who also saved them money to spend later.

You may be right.  But it's tough to say they clearly had him in a lower tier or if they were in the same tier with a chance for under/over-slotting.  (I recall you believe in absolute rankings vs. tiers.  So, this may not be convincing.  But I'm a tier guy.)

Re: Frelick - there's always those stories in nearly every draft.  Honestly, I think the career comps of Cowser/Frelick will be more interesting than Cowser/Lawlar. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

You may be right.  But it's tough to say they clearly had him in a lower tier or if they were in the same tier with a chance for under/over-slotting.  (I recall you believe in absolute rankings vs. tiers.  So, this may not be convincing.  But I'm a tier guy.)

Re: Frelick - there's always those stories in nearly every draft.  Honestly, I think the career comps of Cowser/Frelick will be more interesting than Cowser/Lawlar. 

I know I would have been pissed had they taken Frelick over Cowser but the draft is such a crap shoot. You just never know.

I can see using tiers but within tiers, guys have to still be ranked. You aren’t just saying, well we have 5 guys in tier 1 and they are all the same. End of the day, everyone using a draft board and ranks the players. 

[btdart20]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I know I would have been pissed had they taken Frelick over Cowser but the draft is such a crap shoot. You just never know.

I can see using tiers but within tiers, guys have to still be ranked. You aren’t just saying, well we have 5 guys in tier 1 and they are all the same. End of the day, everyone using a draft board and ranks the players. 

There's also more than one variable within those tiers and across the entire draft that impact any decision.

 

[Just Regular]

I think what animates Elias in that Tier of 5 is then "who will sign for a million less" more than hairsplitting the talent the SigBot says is about the same.

Whatever asymmetry exists between the Club and Player evals I think drives a lot of the one option Elias chooses.

And then you get a bonus Baumler or Rhodes or Willems, or Mayo if it all really clicks.

[sportsfan8703]

41 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I think what animates Elias in that Tier of 5 is then "who will sign for a million less" more than hairsplitting the talent the SigBot says is about the same.

Whatever asymmetry exists between the Club and Player evals I think drives a lot of the one option Elias chooses.

And then you get a bonus Baumler or Rhodes or Willems, or Mayo if it all really clicks.

Baumler.  Haven't heard that name in a while.  

[yark14]

15 hours ago, Ridgway22 said:

But, but, but J***r! Yankees!

Please don't use cuss words on this forum.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Baumler.  Haven't heard that name in a while.  

He’s expected to be available in June.  

[Billy F-Face3]

I'm going to indulge in this thread rather than make a new one. Looking at the results to this point, here's some players I think are ready for the Big Leagues...

Kyle Stowers

Jordan Westburg

Hudson Haskin (His numbers are better than Ortiz's, and Ortiz was just called up)

Joey Ortiz (just because I don't want someone to accuse me of leaving him out, even though he's already there.)

You can also make a case for Lewin Diaz and Josh Lester, just because of their power numbers and the fact they've already had some Big League experience. But with that said, I would put the previous 4 players in a teir higher than those 2 1st basemen.

And on a side note, I am wondering what they did with Anthony Bemboom by sticking him on the reserved list.