I would have given Pablo Lopez this deal 10 times out of 10

[emmett16]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Saying 5 years is extremely deceiving.

He has one season over 22 starts. He has one season where he eclipsed 112 innings.

3.7 FIP isn’t an ace. It’s good to very good but it’s not an ace. He has a career ERA+ of 109 and he’s coming off his worse FIP and ERA+ season since 2019.

He is also is coming off his worst str% in 3 years, although it was still above average (you mentioned control, which is the only reason I mention this)

Hes not an ace. He has never been an ace and it’s unlikely he will ever be one. He can still be a very good pitcher though but no need to pretend he’s something that he’s not.

I didn’t say he was.  I said he’s pitching like one now and having logged 4.09 years of service time at “very good” levels at such a young  + his recant performance suggested  he might become one. 

Edited April 18, 2023 by emmett16

[sportsfan8703]

Lopez was going to cost Mullins.  I think we might be watching the rare win-win trade between the Twins and Marlins.  The Marlins still have some exciting arms that could become available near the deadline, where they might be more open to taking on a prospect then at the beginning of the year when they were trying to "compete".  

[Roll Tide]

22 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm not sure I'd go so far as to say that Urias is the best Arraez comp, but Arraez is < Mullins. And our farm system was loaded enough talent  where I think we could have come up with a competitve trade offer based around Santander and one of our young OFs. 

And honestly, with the way he's continued to hit this season maybe we "cound have" traded Mullins and given Mateo a shot at CF. Is it any worse than the Marlins moving Chisolm from SS to CF this season? 

The main point is that we had a rare shot at landing an ace and didn't act, which is an even more painful pill to swallow now given the state of our pitching. And I absolutely would have extended Lopez at that price. 

We have one of the worst ownership groups in major league sports.

Edited April 18, 2023 by Roll Tide

[Just Regular]

I've kind of considered John Means and Pablo Lopez as cross-league and cross-countries parallels since around the time they had a matchup near when both had declining fathers a couple years back.

Obviously their careers have diverged sharply since then.

I get Pablo selling high in good form and coming off 1.1 full seasons of very good work.    Ages 23-25 he was 1-for-3 posting for all his turns, where the Hit was the covid-shortened 2020.

Adam Frazier spun the yarn of I'm a 5-year NL veteran and just don't know these darned pitchers.    Pablo I guess is in the spot of facing a lot of Bats who don't know him that well in real life yet*

*I take it as a matter of table stakes all Bats have taken all the Win Reality (or better tools the Clubs have that don't have commercials on TV) reps they have the work ethic plus organizational load management permission to take.

Chasing AL6, it'll be helpful if the Central doesn't muster a 2nd 87-win team.    In that case it's more or less Adley's team vs. Julio's team vs. Shohei's team vs deGrom's team even if BAL is 4th in its division.

[Bemorewins]

45 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

We have one of the worst ownership groups in major league sports.

AGREED!!! 100%

I believe that we are the worst run team in North America… Well at least tied with the Washington Football Club or whatever they are calling themselves these days.

Most semi-pro teams are probably run better than the Orioles.

[eddie83]

15 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I've kind of considered John Means and Pablo Lopez as cross-league and cross-countries parallels since around the time they had a matchup near when both had declining fathers a couple years back.

Obviously their careers have diverged sharply since then.

I get Pablo selling high in good form and coming off 1.1 full seasons of very good work.    Ages 23-25 he was 1-for-3 posting for all his turns, where the Hit was the covid-shortened 2020.

Adam Frazier spun the yarn of I'm a 5-year NL veteran and just don't know these darned pitchers.    Pablo I guess is in the spot of facing a lot of Bats who don't know him that well in real life yet*

*I take it as a matter of table stakes all Bats have taken all the Win Reality (or better tools the Clubs have that don't have commercials on TV) reps they have the work ethic plus organizational load management permission to take.

Chasing AL6, it'll be helpful if the Central doesn't muster a 2nd 87-win team.    In that case it's more or less Adley's team vs. Julio's team vs. Shohei's team vs deGrom's team even if BAL is 4th in its division.

I don’t like the odds of all 3 of SEA/TEX/LAA hanging around deep into September. Of course others could say the odds of ALE4 aren’t great either. 
 

 

Not sure what to make of ALC yet. CWS have their flaws. Can’t see MINN pitching this well or hitting this poorly to last either. 

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

I've kind of considered John Means and Pablo Lopez as cross-league and cross-countries parallels since around the time they had a matchup near when both had declining fathers a couple years back.  Obviously their careers have diverged sharply since then.

So both have 4 years of experience, Means is 2 years older, Lopez has about 500 IP vs about 350 IP for Means. What contract do you offer Means when he comes back??

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, AnythingO&#x27;s said:

So both have 4 years of experience, Means is 2 years older, Lopez has about 500 IP vs about 350 IP for Means. What contract do you offer Means when he comes back??

Its a given for me Means is going to pitch 10 games of whatever this year, 30 goodish ones next year, and Mike Elias is never giving anybody the Jameson Taillon contract, whether their career accomplishments are in BAL or elsewhere.

I can already see the thread next Christmas when some other Club pays the Going Rate for a SP of enough proven quality to rate a multi-year deal.

[AnythingO's]

30 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Its a given for me Means is going to pitch 10 games of whatever this year, 30 goodish ones next year, and Mike Elias is never giving anybody the Jameson Taillon contract, whether their career accomplishments are in BAL or elsewhere. I can already see the thread next Christmas when some other Club pays the Going Rate for a SP of enough proven quality to rate a multi-year deal.

To me , that's a very good comp. We have Means for age 29 and 30 now, Assuming Means comes back as himself this summer, do you offer a 4-$68 extension in the off season? Is Taillon a good comp for Means?

[Just Regular]

8 minutes ago, AnythingO&#x27;s said:

To me , that's a very good comp. We have Means for age 29 and 30 now, Assuming Means comes back as himself this summer, do you offer a 4-$68 extension in the off season? Is Taillon a good comp for Means?

Let's see if they are all still in the organization after the trade deadline, but today I'd guess 5-6 favorite length pitchers for the beginning of 2025 include Grayson and Bradish on Tier 1, and then anything Povich, McDermott, Johnson, Bright or a College Ace in this year's draft turns into before we get to the Kremer, Irvin, Wells group, any of whom could still be around.

DL Hall if you're feeling optimistic.

2025 John Means at ~$15mm an underdog to be $$$/WAR competitive with those 9-10 guys.     Until more robust ownership exists, there are only four eligible players for the 1-2 LTC's at/above that pricepoint I hope even Angelos has in him.