TT: It's time to bring up Colton Cowser

[waroriole]

9 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

What else do you feel he needs to do at AAA to be ready for the majors? 

Strikeouts have always been a big concern for him. I don’t know why this front office would expect Cowser to come up and crush it when they don’t think Stowers is worthy of 2-3 starts a week in Baltimore. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

SDP?

After he got traded to San Diego.  He was fine with the Pirates.

[jabba72]

9 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Strikeouts have always been a big concern for him. I don’t know why this front office would expect Cowser to come up and crush it when they don’t think Stowers is worthy of 2-3 starts a week in Baltimore. 

Maybe they were saving the spot for Cowser? Like.."dont get established up here Stowers we like Cowser better."

[Alasdaire]

38 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

2021 (SDP)- 86 OPS+

2022- 80 OPS+

2023- 76 OPS+

It isn't that surprising.

If they saw this coming and baked in this type of line and chose to sign him anyway, then they must either be planning on imminently trading one or two of Norby/Westburg/Ortiz or they really don't believe in them a la Stowers. Because the only reason you would pay him is because you thought he would be better than the infield prospects this year, but it seems clear at least one of them could put up his current numbers.

I'm trying my best to find some reason why they signed him, and the only thing I can think of is that something about OPACY and/or the rule changes made them think he would be better than he has been. Fine that you made a mistake. Now that that's not the case, adjust to the current information and scale back his role.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Alasdaire

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

If they saw this coming

 

I'm not saying they saw it coming.

They might have a wildly different projection.

He might start suddenly hitting better.

All I'm saying is that what he is doing now is not out of line with how he has played since the second half of the 2021 season.

[Just Regular]

Tiers of Smartest Guy in the Room Mike Elias Pedigree Snobbery

You are 18 and my 1-1: Jackson Holliday

You are 21 and my 1-1: Adley Rutschman

You are 18 and I like you $2.5 million dollars: Gunnar Henderson

You are 21 and I like you $5 million dollars: Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser

You are 16 and I am glad I liked you $1 million dollars: Samuel Basallo

You are exceeding my expectations, but ain't no million: Joey Ortiz, Darell Hernaiz

I drafted you as an emotional support animal for someone in a higher tier:  Jordan Westburg, Kyle Stowers

I wouldn't have drafted you: DL Hall, Grayson Rodriguez

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, forphase1 said:

Yet that's exactly what they did...

The best prospect in our system is barely hitting .200 and everyone acts like Westburg, Norby, or Otiz would be up here killing it.  They likely wouldn’t be as good as Frazier and would be striking out a lot more.  There was at one point in time a thought that strikeouts don’t matter, but teams no longer believe this is the case, especially across a lineup.   And while Frazier isn’t killing it, his BABIP is .211 and about a week ago his. OPS was .750. 
 

Edited April 27, 2023 by baltfan
I get my Joeys screwed up.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, baltfan said:

The best prospect in our system is barely hitting .200 and everyone acts like Westburg, Norby, or Diaz would be up here killing it. 
 

WHO?

Who is everyone?

Give me some names.

The most I've seen is someone saying a callup could do as well as Frazier.

I'm also apparently having a senior moment since I'm not sure who Diaz is.

[baltfan]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

WHO?

Who is everyone?

Give me some names.

The most I've seen is someone saying a callup could do as well as Frazier.

I'm also apparently having a senior moment since I'm not sure who Diaz is.

Ortiz, not Diaz.  I get my Joeys screwed up at times.  Implicit in all of the complaining about the Frazier contract is that one of the minor leaguers would be much better.  It surely can’t be about the money since the payroll is as low as it is. Or maybe people are lamenting they didn’t spend iT on OH darling Chris Bassitt instead of Gibson.  Anyhow, I am sorry to have sidetracked the thread a bit and do agree thatCowser should be up and Vavra should be down.  Although given Cowser’s contact issues early in the year they may want to wait a little longer while he continues to refine his approach and improve his contact rate. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Ortiz, not Diaz.  I get my Joeys screwed up at times.  Implicit in all of the complaining about the Frazier contract is that one of the minor leaguers would be much better.  It surely can’t be about the money since the payroll is as low as it is. Or maybe people are lamenting they didn’t spend iT on OH darling Chris Bassitt instead of Gibson.  Anyhow, I am sorry to have sidetracked the thread a bit and do agree thatCowser should be up and Vavra should be down.  Although given Cowser’s contact issues early in the year they may want to wait a little longer while he continues to refine his approach and improve his contact rate. 

It isn't implicit.

Folks are admitting that the players would have an adjustment period.

The conversation is just not what you are portraying it to be.

 

Also Cowser can work on his approach in the majors.  Folks can still refine their game after getting promoted.

[baltfan]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It isn't implicit.

Folks are admitting that the players would have an adjustment period.

The conversation is just not what you are portraying it to be.

 

Also Cowser can work on his approach in the majors.  Folks can still refine their game after getting promoted.

Are you willing to admit that more time in the minors can sometime improve the odds of ultimate success in the majors?  Are you willing to admit that some players have likely been hurt or even had careers ruined because they were brought up too soon?  If so, are you willing to admit that a guy who at times struggles with contact and struggles with lefties might be the type of guy you have to be careful with brining up too soon?

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Are you willing to admit that more time in the minors can sometime improve the odds of ultimate success in the majors?  

Are you willing to admit that some players have likely been hurt or even had careers ruined because they were brought up too soon?

 If so, are you willing to admit that a guy who at times struggles with contact and struggles with lefties might be the type of guy you have to be careful with brining up too soon?

Sure. 

Are you willing to admit that players who get promoted to the majors at a younger age generally have superior careers to players promoted at an older age?

Sure.  I'll admit to not knowing anyone who "had his career ruined" but sure, it's conceivable.

Are you willing to admit that guys have likely been hurt or even had careers ruined because they were playing in minor league facilities?  Maybe Grayson doesn't get hurt last season if he's in the majors that day.  We don't know.

Nope.  I'm not.  You don't learn to hit ML pitching beating up on minor league pitching. 

[Flash- bd]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure. 

Are you willing to admit that players who get promoted to the majors at a younger age generally have superior careers to players promoted at an older age?

Sure.  I'll admit to not knowing anyone who "had his career ruined" but sure, it's conceivable.

Are you willing to admit that guys have likely been hurt or even had careers ruined because they were playing in minor league facilities?  Maybe Grayson doesn't get hurt last season if he's in the majors that day.  We don't know.

Nope.  I'm not.  You don't learn to hit ML pitching beating up on minor league pitching. 

You realize the logical problem here, no? (Correlation X= causation...)

In short, at some point I feel like people have to look at the trajectory of the club since Elias took over, see that we're 16-8 and last season a far better team than anyone expected, that we have done this while going from one of the worst farm systems in baseball to one of, if not the best (we can assume with 99.9% certainty that Elias and his staff are well aware of the data you're referring to, and models much, much more sophisticated in mapping the career of a player, taking into account the logical issue inherent in your point), and accept that he might have a bit of a better idea than you, and that there are convincing reasons behind his and the staff's decision making processes. 

[Alasdaire]

12 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Are you willing to admit that more time in the minors can sometime improve the odds of ultimate success in the majors?  Are you willing to admit that some players have likely been hurt or even had careers ruined because they were brought up too soon?  If so, are you willing to admit that a guy who at times struggles with contact and struggles with lefties might be the type of guy you have to be careful with brining up too soon?

Joey Ortiz is going to be 25 in a few months. Westburg and Heston are also 24. Stowers is already 25. In any other sport, that's the prime of your career.

It would be disingenuous for the organization to deprive those guys of a chance under the guise of further development. They're ready based on age and performance.

And rest assured that players are sensitive to these dynamics and organizations develop reputations.

[baltfan]

1 minute ago, Flash- bd said:

You realize the logical problem here, no? (Correlation X= causation...)

In short, at some point I feel like people have to look at the trajectory of the club since Elias took over, see that we're 16-8 and last season a far better team than anyone expected, that we have done this while going from one of the worst farm systems in baseball to one of, if not the best (we can assume with 99.9% certainty that Elias and his staff are well aware of the data you're referring to, and models much, much more sophisticated in mapping the career of a player, taking into account the logical issue inherent in your point), and accept that he might have a bit of a better idea than you, and that there are convincing reasons behind his and the staff's decision making processes. 

And to add to this excellent post, is there anyone more proud of the farm that he created than Elias?  Why would people think he wouldn’t want to bring guys up to show how good of a job he has done rebuilding if he believed they were better at the moment?