TT: It's time to bring up Colton Cowser

[baltfan]

2 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Joey Ortiz is going to be 25 in a few months. Westburg and Heston are also 24. Stowers is already 25. In any other sport, that's the prime of your career.

It would be disingenuous for the organization to deprive those guys of a chance under the guise of further development. They're ready based on age and performance.

And rest assured that players are sensitive to these dynamics and organizations develop reputations.

COVID slowed development.  You really think this is about contracts at this point?  Given their ages, Elias is unlikely to care much if any about them walking as free agents in 6 years. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

You realize the logical problem here, no? (Correlation X= causation...)

In short, at some point I feel like people have to look at the trajectory of the club since Elias took over, see that we're 16-8 and last season a far better team than anyone expected, that we have done this while going from one of the worst farm systems in baseball to one of, if not the best (we can assume with 99.9% certainty that Elias and his staff are well aware of the data you're referring to, and models much, much more sophisticated in mapping the career of a player, taking into account the logical issue inherent in your point), and accept that he might have a bit of a better idea than you, and that there are convincing reasons behind his and the staff's decision making processes. 

Oh I love that argument. 

The Elias has to be smarter than any of us fans so whatever choice they make has to be the right one.

Hadn't heard that one in ages.

How dare we question any decision our betters make!

No way he could have any biases that could impact his decision making. 

 

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Joey Ortiz is going to be 25 in a few months. Westburg and Heston are also 24. Stowers is already 25. In any other sport, that's the prime of your career.

It would be disingenuous for the organization to deprive those guys of a chance under the guise of further development. They're ready based on age and performance.

And rest assured that players are sensitive to these dynamics and organizations develop reputations.

I appreciate you bringing up the age factor. It is one of the reasons that I fail to understand why people want/wanted Ortiz to replace Mateo. Or believed in Ortiz’s future so much more than Mateo’s… Mateo is only 2 years older and has superior tools/talent.

Also in response to your post, all of the guys that you mentioned may be ready. But the problem is simply that there are not enough slots on the major league team to get ABs considering who is already here an contributing. At some point we are going to have to make a trade/trades. It doesn’t make any logical sense to keep guys who are redundant (meaning they play the same position or have similar skill sets) when we all know come post season what is going to win for us is better starting pitching to match up with our competitors.

[Alasdaire]

4 minutes ago, baltfan said:

And to add to this excellent post, is there anyone more proud of the farm that he created than Elias?  Why would people think he wouldn’t want to bring guys up to show how good of a job he has done rebuilding if he believed they were better at the moment?  

These guys aren't a deck of trading cards that Mike Elias gets to carry around in his binder to show off at collector conventions. They're not even NFL/NBA draft picks who are making millions of dollars even if they're sitting on the bench. Joey Ortiz signed for $450k four years ago. If you're not going to give a guy like that the shot he has earned, then trade him. That might not strictly be in the O's best interest, but especially in the age of player empowerment, it has to be accounted for.

[Alasdaire]

  

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

I appreciate you bringing up the age factor. It is one of the reasons that I fail to understand why people want/wanted Ortiz to replace Mateo. Or believed in Ortiz’s future so much more than Mateo’s… Mateo is only 2 years older and has superior tools/talent.

Also in response to your post, all of the guys that you mentioned may be ready. But the problem is simply that there are not enough slots on the major league team to get ABs considering who is already here an contributing. At some point we are going to have to make a trade/trades. It doesn’t make any logical sense to keep guys who are redundant (meaning they play the same position or have similar skill sets) when we all know come post season what is going to win for us is better starting pitching to match up with our competitors.

Mateo is an interesting case in and of himself. I mentioned this in another thread, but there were pieces written about Mateo last year that he was breaking out because it was the first time he was being given everyday at bats at 26. But sadly with a guy who trades on speed, his window is probably limited to just a few years now. That's one of the reasons why it's not only unfair but also counterproductive to hold guys back when they've earned the shot.

I'm not blaming the O's in any way. They haven't yet shown how they're going to handle what is a good problem to have. But Stowers is the tip of the iceberg and I hope they have an approach.

 

[DirtyBird]

7 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

. If you're not going to give a guy like that the shot he has earned, then trade him. That might not strictly be in the O's best interest, but especially in the age of player empowerment, it has to be accounted for.

There is a system that addresses this called the Rule 5 Draft

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

There is a system that addresses this called the Rule 5 Draft

It's a pretty poor system.

The O's can take one or more of these guys, put him on the 40 next year and keep him in the minors for three more seasons.

[forphase1]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

The best prospect in our system is barely hitting .200 and everyone acts like Westburg, Norby, or Otiz would be up here killing it.  They likely wouldn’t be as good as Frazier and would be striking out a lot more.  There was at one point in time a thought that strikeouts don’t matter, but teams no longer believe this is the case, especially across a lineup.   And while Frazier isn’t killing it, his BABIP is .211 and about a week ago his. OPS was .750. 
 

Not many are claiming they would be killing it.  But matching what Frazier is doing with the bat is certainly possible, since he has been very poor overall since his initial hot spell in the first series.   Yeah, he's had some nice at bats, as he IS a professional hitter, but the results really haven't been there.  He's a vast upgrade over Odor, but that isn't the standard we should be trying to match.  I do believe that a Westburg/Ortiz would perform at about the same clip or better that Frazier has been playing the past two weeks or so.  Either way I'd rather have the young talent in the lineup over a vet on the downside of his career if the performance drop-off isn't drastic, and I don't believe it would be in this case.  

[baltfan]

4 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

These guys aren't a deck of trading cards that Mike Elias gets to carry around in his binder to show off at collector conventions. They're not even NFL/NBA draft picks who are making millions of dollars even if they're sitting on the bench. Joey Ortiz signed for $450k four years ago. If you're not going to give a guy like that the shot he has earned, then trade him. That might not strictly be in the O's best interest, but especially in the age of player empowerment, it has to be accounted for.

Why should they trade them?  They drafted them. They developed them, especially Ortiz.  They should integrate them when the team need them to be integrated.  Does that suck for these players, yeah?  But there are 40 man roster rules and minor league free agent rules to address guys being blocked too long.   None of these guys except Stowers has even spent a full year at AAA.  At a certain point guys will need to be traded because it’s stupid to have talent that can’t break into the lineup and not use those assets to improve the team via trade. But if that is the plan, it might be better to keep them in the minors so other teams can dream on them.   I suspect come July things will be sorted out some with trades, especially if the team is contending.  Until then, it’s smart for the team to make sure it determines the true talent of their players so they don’t hastily trade or keep someone they shouldn’t. 

[Alasdaire]

5 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

There is a system that addresses this called the Rule 5 Draft

Yeah, a system that exists by necessity so that clubs can't exploit minor league players more than they already do.

I hope the O's are spending time figuring out how they're going to be proactive about bringing all of these guys up. Maybe they could call up Owings Mills. The Ravens have pretty successfully dealt with these sorts of issues for a long time now.

[Bemorewins]

Just now, Alasdaire said:

  

Mateo is an interesting case in and of himself. I mentioned this in another thread, but there were pieces written about Mateo last year that he was breaking out because it was the first time he was being given everyday at bats at 26. But sadly with a guy who trades on speed, his window is probably limited to just a few years now. That's one of the reasons why it's not only unfair but also counterproductive to hold guys back when they've earned the shot.

I'm not blaming the O's in any way. They haven't yet shown how they're going to handle what is a good problem to have. But Stowers is the tip of the iceberg and I hope they have an approach.

 

We only need Mateo’s best for a couple of years tops until Holiday is ready to take over at SS.

That’s why I do see a future at SS with the O’s for Ortiz. Even if he is moved to 2B, I don’t see any possible future where he, Urias, and Westburg can coexist on a major league roster and all get regular ABs. At least 1 and possibly 2 are going to need to be moved.

[baltfan]

1 minute ago, forphase1 said:

Not many are claiming they would be killing it.  But matching what Frazier is doing with the bat is certainly possible, since he has been very poor overall since his initial hot spell in the first series.   Yeah, he's had some nice at bats, as he IS a professional hitter, but the results really haven't been there.  He's a vast upgrade over Odor, but that isn't the standard we should be trying to match.  I do believe that a Westburg/Ortiz would perform at about the same clip or better that Frazier has been playing the past two weeks or so.  Either way I'd rather have the young talent in the lineup over a vet on the downside of his career if the performance drop-off isn't drastic, and I don't believe it would be in this case.  

These are Elias’s guys. He drafted them. He developed them. If he thought they were better, why would he not want to show them off?

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Why should they trade them?  They drafted them. They developed them, especially Ortiz.  They should integrate them when the team need them to be integrated.  Does that suck for these players, yeah?  But there are 40 man roster rules and minor league free agent rules to address guys being blocked too long.   None of these guys except Stowers has even spent a full year at AAA.  At a certain point guys will need to be traded because it’s stupid to have talent that can’t break into the lineup and not use those assets to improve the team via trade. But if that is the plan, it might be better to keep them in the minors so other teams can dream on them.   I suspect come July things will be sorted out some with trades, especially if the team is contending.  Until then, it’s smart for the team to make sure it determines the true talent of their players so they don’t hastily trade or keep someone they shouldn’t. 

I believe that it would be extremely foolish and borderline organizational malpractice to hold on to all of our assets/prospects past the trade deadline and it use some of the redundant pieces to acquire the top of frontline pitching that we need.

[Alasdaire]

Just now, baltfan said:

Why should they trade them?  They drafted them. They developed them, especially Ortiz.  They should integrate them when the team need them to be integrated.  Does that suck for these players, yeah?

I sincerely hope this isn't the approach the organization takes. Beyond the human aspect, baseball specifically involves convincing prospects to sign with your organization when they have other options like college, signing with another academy, or staying in your own country. Good luck doing that when you develop a reputation as a franchise that treats players like inventory.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, baltfan said:

These are Elias’s guys. He drafted them. He developed them. If he thought they were better, why would he not want to show them off?

Because he's worried about his farm system ranking?

Because he's a hoarder?

Because a guy in AAA can't have flaws exposed by ML opposition?