A Realistic Pitching Ace And What It Will Take to Acquire Him

[HakunaSakata]

14 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

He may not be an ace but he's MUCH better than anything we have currently.

Don't agree with any of the highlighted. Luzardo and Alcantara could be traded for and both aree under contract for a longer term. We are going to need this type of pitching in order to contend. What we have now won't cut it. We have to hold our breathe that Kremer and Bradish can get through 5 against a good offense.

Nobody is giving you a Major League ready pitcher with top of rotation stuff. Do you know how valuable that commodity is? Bad teams are not trading their best prospects and good teams are not giving you their best pitching prospects. Where are we supposed to get someone like you suggest from? That would probably cost and arm and a leg. Do you not see this?

You realize that Jesus Luzardo was just traded in 2021 (at the age of 23) right? If you need another example, McKenzie Gore was traded last season (at the age of 23). So yeah, it absolutely does happen. I also never said that I believed they have the pitching solutions in house. Yes, they need to improve their starting pitching, but they don't need to clear out the farm system to try and get Cease or Alcantara to make that happen. They should trust their scouting and find the next Luzardo / Gore. 

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

You realize that Jesus Luzardo was just traded in 2021 (at the age of 23) right? If you need another example, McKenzie Gore was traded last season (at the age of 23). So yeah, it absolutely does happen. I also never said that I believed they have the pitching solutions in house. Yes, they need to improve their starting pitching, but they don't need to clear out the farm system to try and get Cease or Alcantara to make that happen. They should trust their scouting and find the next Luzardo / Gore. 

Do you mind providing so insight into how this could be achieved? What is a realistic trade scenario where they could "clear out" their farm system in any trade for those players or any comparable pitcher? Juan Soto only got 3 top 100 prospects I believe, Abrahams was the highest ranked around #10 (if memory serves me correctly). Dy you think Cease or Luzardo are valued by the game more than Soto? 

I want to try to understand your perspective from a rational point of view.

[OriolesMagic83]

13 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

You realize that Jesus Luzardo was just traded in 2021 (at the age of 23) right? If you need another example, McKenzie Gore was traded last season (at the age of 23). So yeah, it absolutely does happen. I also never said that I believed they have the pitching solutions in house. Yes, they need to improve their starting pitching, but they don't need to clear out the farm system to try and get Cease or Alcantara to make that happen. They should trust their scouting and find the next Luzardo / Gore. 

Mighr cost less for 3 pre breakout Luzardo/Gores than a Cease much less Alcantara.  I would guess that would be Elias preference over giving up multiple top prospects.

[HakunaSakata]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Do you mind providing so insight into how this could be achieved? What is a realistic trade scenario where they could "clear out" their farm system in any trade for those players or any comparable pitcher? Juan Soto only got 3 top 100 prospects I believe, Abrahams was the highest ranked around #10 (if memory serves me correctly). Dy you think Cease or Luzardo are valued by the game more than Soto? 

I want to try to understand your perspective from a rational point of view.

My point is simple. It would be much cheaper to trade for the next Cease/Alcantara than either of those players now. The Marlin's landed Luzardo for a 1/2 a season of Starling Marte BEFORE he broke out. That's all they gave up. That's exactly what we should be doing, not trading all of our top prospects for an already established #1 SP who we'll never sign with us long term (someone will outbid us). This isn't just about improving the team this season, it's about positioning use to contend EVERY season. 

If you're looking at potential trade partners for this season, just look at the teams in the bottom 1/3 of the batting stats. Once Aaron Civale comes back, I think the Guardians would make for an excellent trade partner if their offense is still struggling because they're pretty loaded with young arms. They also have needs in the OF and possibly at SS (Rosario has been awful). Target Gavin Williams and offer them a deal centered around Cowers and Ortiz. They might even be interested in Urias as part of the package. 

 

[Bemorewins]

16 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

My point is simple. It would be much cheaper to trade for the next Cease/Alcantara than either of those players now. The Marlin's landed Luzardo for a 1/2 a season of Starling Marte BEFORE he broke out. That's all they gave up. That's exactly what we should be doing, not trading all of our top prospects for an already established #1 SP who we'll never sign with us long term (someone will outbid us). This isn't just about improving the team this season, it's about positioning use to contend EVERY season. 

If you're looking at potential trade partners for this season, just look at the teams in the bottom 1/3 of the batting stats. Once Aaron Civale comes back, I think the Guardians would make for an excellent trade partner if their offense is still struggling because they're pretty loaded with young arms. They also have needs in the OF and possibly at SS (Rosario has been awful). Target Gavin Williams and offer them a deal centered around Cowers and Ortiz. They might even be interested in Urias as part of the package. 

 

There are several things that I struggle to connect/understand regarding the rationale of your premise.

1) Why are you worried about being cheap? We are much more prospect rich than ANYONE OTHER ORGANIZATION IN THE SPORT OF BASEBALL. When you have an overabundance, what is the rationale in worrying about running out? That's really not possible. I have asked you to provide any examples of a realistic trade scenario that would cause us to become prospect bankrupt and I haven't received anything from you but reasoning that appears to be VERY fear-based rooted in a scarcity mentality. Would you be willing to provide any realistic trade scenarios where we can become prospect poor given that we have NINE TOP 100 prospects currently with 2 more knocking at the door to join that list?

2) You speak of trading for the next Alcantara... I don't understand this at all. Like what odds would you give us in being able to get in a trade a pitcher that will become one of if not the game's best? Help me understand how you think future CY Young winners are that disposable to other teams.

3) You say you want to trade for a great pitching prospect. But I'm curious how much you realistically think that player (I guess Gavin Williams) helps the Baltimore Orioles win this year? Do you think that Gavin Williams is a better prospect or more talented than Grayson Rodriguez? I ask because Grayson is currently struggling to acclimate and has been up and down this season (just like Gunnar) and like almost all top prospects when they come to the show. With how thin that our current rotation already is, do you want a second guy who gives you no length like Grayson is doing now? How long would you give it before that extra strain on our already overused bullpen takes its toll? Early August? Late August? September?

4) Do you not believe in the current team and the talent's of the players on our team? We just went toe-to-toe this weekend with probably the best team in the NL at their stadium. To me it looks like we are about 1 impact starter away from being able to challenge ANYONE in the game when the games matter most. Does it look that way to you or do you think that we are a year away?

5) Sandy Alcantara has 4 MORE YEARS on his current contract at an EXTREMELY team friendly rate. I know that you want to trade for a prospect who you hope will be an immediate ace. What odds would you give that player to surpass Alcantara in terms of WAR during his 4 years vs. the 6 years that you get from that player?

If you would be willing to answer my questions, I would appreciate the insight that you offer.

[Frobby]

TBH, I hate these speculative trade threads.  The trades that actually occur never look anything like the ones that posters invent.   We can spend all day arguing about how good Dylan Cease is or isn’t and what we should or shouldn’t give up to get him, but to me it’s a big waste of my energy.  I’m not telling anyone else not to start these threads or spend their time arguing about these hypotheticals.   It just isn’t for me.  

[AnythingO's]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

TBH, I hate these speculative trade threads.  The trades that actually occur never look anything like the ones that posters invent.   We can spend all day arguing about how good Dylan Cease is or isn’t and what we should or shouldn’t give up to get him, but to me it’s a big waste of my energy.  I’m not telling anyone else not to start these threads or spend their time arguing about these hypotheticals.   It just isn’t for me.  

Agree 1,000,000%. Bemorewins has decided that we ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY MUST acquire a a TRUE #1 TOR ASAP because our mediocre at best rotation CAN'T POSSIBLY PITCH EFFECTIVELY IN THE POSTSEASON, depriving us fans of the WS win we are OWED (Are you listening JA?). It is freaking the 1st week of MAY and NOTHING WILL HAPPEN until much closer to the AS break. EVERYONE is still evaluating their respective chances, even MIA (Luzardo) and DET (ERod). We just went head-to-head with ATL, in their stadium and had realistic chances to win 2/3 or even sweep. We started Kremer, Bradish, Wells, and at least 2 of them would have to be jettisoned or demoted to ensure WS competitiveness. ME isn't listening, no matter how often he is REMINDED of the ABSOLUTE PLETHORA of TOP 100 PROSPECTS we have. We have that cornucopia because we TANKED for 4 years to gain two, bookend 1:1 picks. We are highly unlikely to maintain such excess drafting in the 20-30 range. Rank over, retreating to my cave. 

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

Agree 1,000,000%. Bemorewins has decided that we ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY MUST acquire a a TRUE #1 TOR ASAP because our mediocre at best rotation CAN'T POSSIBLY PITCH EFFECTIVELY IN THE POSTSEASON, depriving us fans of the WS win we are OWED (Are you listening JA?). It is freaking the 1st week of MAY and NOTHING WILL HAPPEN until much closer to the AS break. EVERYONE is still evaluating their respective chances, even MIA (Luzardo) and DET (ERod). We just went head-to-head with ATL, in their stadium and had realistic chances to win 2/3 or even sweep. We started Kremer, Bradish, Wells, and at least 2 of them would have to be jettisoned or demoted to ensure WS competitiveness. ME isn't listening, no matter how often he is REMINDED of the ABSOLUTE PLETHORA of TOP 100 PROSPECTS we have. We have that cornucopia because we TANKED for 4 years to gain two, bookend 1:1 picks. We are highly unlikely to maintain such excess drafting in the 20-30 range. Rank over, retreating to my cave. 

Ha ha... It sounds like you have me spot on...lol

I know that no moves can happen until the trade deadline. It's a message board and it's fun for me to discuss said things. I have had a little more time on my hands this week due to illness. I hope to be back to work tomorrow. So, hopefully not as many musings about trade ideas.

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

There are several things that I struggle to connect/understand regarding the rationale of your premise.

1) Why are you worried about being cheap? We are much more prospect rich than ANYONE OTHER ORGANIZATION IN THE SPORT OF BASEBALL. When you have an overabundance, what is the rationale in worrying about running out? That's really not possible. I have asked you to provide any examples of a realistic trade scenario that would cause us to become prospect bankrupt and I haven't received anything from you but reasoning that appears to be VERY fear-based rooted in a scarcity mentality. Would you be willing to provide any realistic trade scenarios where we can become prospect poor given that we have NINE TOP 100 prospects currently with 2 more knocking at the door to join that list?

2) You speak of trading for the next Alcantara... I don't understand this at all. Like what odds would you give us in being able to get in a trade a pitcher that will become one of if not the game's best? Help me understand how you think future CY Young winners are that disposable to other teams.

3) You say you want to trade for a great pitching prospect. But I'm curious how much you realistically think that player (I guess Gavin Williams) helps the Baltimore Orioles win this year? Do you think that Gavin Williams is a better prospect or more talented than Grayson Rodriguez? I ask because Grayson is currently struggling to acclimate and has been up and down this season (just like Gunnar) and like almost all top prospects when they come to the show. With how thin that our current rotation already is, do you want a second guy who gives you no length like Grayson is doing now? How long would you give it before that extra strain on our already overused bullpen takes its toll? Early August? Late August? September?

4) Do you not believe in the current team and the talent's of the players on our team? We just went toe-to-toe this weekend with probably the best team in the NL at their stadium. To me it looks like we are about 1 impact starter away from being able to challenge ANYONE in the game when the games matter most. Does it look that way to you or do you think that we are a year away?

5) Sandy Alcantara has 4 MORE YEARS on his current contract at an EXTREMELY team friendly rate. I know that you want to trade for a prospect who you hope will be an immediate ace. What odds would you give that player to surpass Alcantara in terms of WAR during his 4 years vs. the 6 years that you get from that player?

If you would be willing to answer my questions, I would appreciate the insight that you offer.

I'm sorry, but I don't the patience for this conversation anymore. I've made my point clearly and concisely (several times) and continuing to try and convince you and answer your litany of questions, when your mind is already made up, would just be pissing in the wind. 

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I'm sorry, but I don't the patience for this conversation anymore. I've made my point clearly and concisely (several times) and continuing to try and convince you and answer your litany of questions, when your mind is already made up, would just be pissing in the wind. 

Fair enough. I wasn't trying to antagonize you, but just looking to engage you in some honest, open dialogue.

[HakunaSakata]

34 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Fair enough. I wasn't trying to antagonize you, but just looking to engage you in some honest, open dialogue.

No worries and hope you recover from your illness quickly!

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, HakunaSakata said:

No worries and hope you recover from your illness quickly!

Thanks I appreciate that!

[truespectra]

I have been primarily an avid reader of this board for over 23 years. I love the trade speculation threads. Keep ‘em coming. It’s nice to finally have a young competitive team to root for, a top tier farm system, a great GM and assistant GM, AND dream about trading for an ace like the Astros have done the past few years.  Who of course will not sign with us. 

[Billy F-Face3]

If anyone is wonder what it would cost to get a pitcher of such a caliber, it might be good to look at what got a catcher of such high caliber. Look at what the Braves gave up in the off-season to trade for Sean Murphy...

TRADE DETAILS:

A’s get:
OF Esteury Ruiz from Brewers (club's No. 8-ranked prospect)
C Manny Piña from Braves
LHP Kyle Muller from Braves (club's No. 1-ranked prospect)
RHP Freddy Tarnok from Braves (club's No. 6-ranked prospect)
RHP Royber Salinas from Braves (club's No. 18-ranked prospect)

Braves get:
C Sean Murphy from A’s

Brewers get:
C William Contreras from Braves
RHP Joel Payamps from A’s
RHP Justin Yeager from Braves

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/sean-murphy-braves-trade

 

So the Braves gave up:

C William Contreras

C Manny Piña

RHP Justin Yeager

LHP Kyle Muller (Braves' No. 1-ranked prospect)
RHP Freddy Tarnok (Braves' No. 6-ranked prospect)
RHP Royber Salinas (Braves' No. 18-ranked prospect)

 

The Braves gave up their starting Catcher, a depth catcher, a MLB pitcher, and 3 of the better pitching prospects to upgrade their Catcher position. What they got in return was the reigning American League Gold Glove winner at the Catcher position. This should be a good barometer of what it might take to trade for a player of Ace caliber.

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Ha ha... It sounds like you have me spot on...lol I know that no moves can happen until the trade deadline. It's a message board and it's fun for me to discuss said things. I have had a little more time on my hands this week due to illness. I hope to be back to work tomorrow. So, hopefully not as many musings about trade ideas.

OK, I'll bite. I have been on the ERod bandwagon since the offseason. Why? I look for idiosyncrasies, and with his opt out, his troubles last summer, and 3/$49M remaining I expect him to opt out. That means he is a short term rental which DET has little leverage over therefore cheaper to acquire. The oddity with him is he declined the QO from Boston and I am not sure of the rules allowing or preventing a second QO. That's an unknown. Then usually the team has 5 days after the WS to place the QO but the player can have a different timeline in their contract. I think ARod had a 10-day window back in the day. As well negotiated as ERod's contract is, it wouldn't surprise me if he did something like that to reduce DET's options if he didn't opt within 5 days. Another unknown. Then there is his Oriole lineage and I was pissed when he was traded. But DET isn't failing, except against the East. They are 2-14 against the East but they are 15-18 overall, in 3rd place. They don't play the East again until 3 w/ TOR just before the ASB and then 13 in Aug-Sept. They won't decide to fish or cut bait until July but we still need to answer the QO questions before making any offer. Too much time, too many variables.

Another choice is Trever Rogers in MIA just coming off the 15-day IL with forearm tightness but he says no pain. He is 25, lefty, 6'-5" drafted in 2017 out of HS, They are short SPs right now without him and are starting a 33 year old as SP5. They have guys hurt and prospects coming but nothing ready now. They are in the hunt now with PHI and NYM, can they hang there? Are they tired of waiting for him to become say Wheeler? Too much time, wait and see. Pablo was the guy this offseason.