Kyle Gibson is on a 20 win pace

[wildcard]

So if he pitches on the last day of the season and wins his 20th does that it doesn't count because he does have the 4 days following that win?

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Exactly.   He pitched in 12 of our first 55 games, but he won’t pitch 12 times in the next 55.   

He could.  Its 55 games not 55 days.

[emmett16]

I’m a little worried about Gibson’s so/w and so9 #s this year.  Very low.  Almost 2 so9 less than last year.  He’s walking a tick lower than his career norms so far this year.  The big thing is he isn’t giving up HRs.  Is he getting lucky, is the Wall helping him, is he pitching better?  Not sure, but the lack of Ks has me a bit worried for regression.  With that said - he’s been a fantastic surprise and addition so far this year. 

[24fps]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

We are 55 games into the season.   7 divided by 55 times 162 = 20.6 win

12 starts divided by 55 times 162 = 35.3 starts

71.6 IP divided by 55 times 182 = 210.9 IP

At this point Gibson's window of opportunity is games 60-162.  If you calculate starting every fifth day then he has 21 starts remaining or 33 total on the year.  If he matches his current winning percentage per start (58.3%) then that's an additional 12 wins for 19 total.  He's averaging just under 6 innings per start, so give him another 126 innings and he would be at 197 for the year.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

He could.  Its 55 games not 55 days.

Yes, he could, but he won’t.  Hyde’s not going to start skipping pitchers’ turns in the rotation to give extra starts to Gibson.  The O’s have only skipped one starter’s turn all season, and that only happened because Bradish got hurt in the second inning and then next day’s starter, Tyler Wells, volunteered to enter that game in relief.  

It’s been four years since any pitcher started more than 33 games, and I’m not expecting Gibson (or any of the other pitchers who have made 12 starts so far) to do so.  

 

[DirtyBird]

48 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So if he pitches on the last day of the season and wins his 20th does that it doesn't count because he does have the 4 days following that win?

If he pitches on the last day of the season, and doesn't miss any starts, it would likely be his 33rd start.

[Tony-OH]

Great, but he needs to eat more innings and get into that 100-110 pitch area more often. Yesterday while he kept us in the game, he needs to be able to get through the 6th inning. I'm sure he would tell you he was disappointed in himself by only going 5.2 innings in a game where he had a seven run lead.

Gibson has been fine and he's pitching like the 4th/5th starter that he is, but I'd like to see him get deeper into game more often, especially in games where his team gave him a ton of offensive support.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

I’m a little worried about Gibson’s so/w and so9 #s this year.  Very low.  Almost 2 so9 less than last year.  He’s walking a tick lower than his career norms so far this year.  The big thing is he isn’t giving up HRs.  Is he getting lucky, is the Wall helping him, is he pitching better?  Not sure, but the lack of Ks has me a bit worried for regression.  With that said - he’s been a fantastic surprise and addition so far this year. 

I was wondering about the wall and how it's helped him so I pulled up his spray chart. It looks to me that it has not helped him in the sense there are outs that would have been homers before the wall change. Now does it help him psychologically, perhaps. 

 

[BRobinsonfan]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I care more about the starts and innings.

I know analytically you're right, but a 20-win season is a vestigial hold over from my baseball card collecting youth, when the O's always seemed to have 20-game winners, that would trigger a big dose of nostalgia and serotonin - especially if achieved by a pitcher like  Kyle Gibson who gets outs the old fashioned way.   

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Great, but he needs to eat more innings and get into that 100-110 pitch area more often. Yesterday while he kept us in the game, he needs to be able to get through the 6th inning. I'm sure he would tell you he was disappointed in himself by only going 5.2 innings in a game where he had a seven run lead.

Gibson has been fine and he's pitching like the 4th/5th starter that he is, but I'd like to see him get deeper into game more often, especially in games where his team gave him a ton of offensive support.

I was disappointed Gibson couldn’t get deeper into that game.  The long 4th inning, especially the long Naylor at bat, seemed to take a lot out of him.  He’d been very pitch-efficient and his command was sharp until that, but then he seemed to tire and lose command.  

On a macro level, however, Gibson is averaging 5.97 innings per start.  He’s 7th in the major leagues in innings pitched, and among the 67 pitchers who have made at least 11 starts, he’s 15th in IP/start.   In my mind, he’s met or exceeded expectations in the IP/start category.  By comparison, he averaged 5.39 last year, and Lyles averaged 5.59.   
 

Edited May 31, 2023 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, BRobinsonfan said:

I know analytically you're right, but a 20-win season is a vestigial hold over from my baseball card collecting youth, when the O's always seemed to have 20-game winners, that would trigger a big dose of nostalgia and serotonin - especially if achieved by a pitcher like  Kyle Gibson who gets outs the old fashioned way.   

Let me put it another way.

If he is good enough to pitch that many innings and get that many starts and the team continues to play well, he will get a lot of wins.

He will have also likely given us a chance to win most times out, whether he records the W or not.

To me, that’s more important. Him getting to 20 wins would be a bonus.

[BRobinsonfan]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let me put it another way.

If he is good enough to pitch that many innings and get that many starts and the team continues to play well, he will get a lot of wins.

He will have also likely given us a chance to win most times out, whether he records the W or not.

To me, that’s more important. Him getting to 20 wins would be a bonus.

Oh, I'm not disagreeing at all.  20 wins is just one of those stats from a bygone era that has an appeal driven more by emotion than analytics.  

[Orange]

Was the last O's pitcher to win 20 really

Spoiler

Mike Boddicker in 1984

?

[Orange]

Just now, Orange said:

Was the last O's pitcher to win 20 really

  Reveal hidden contents

Mike Boddicker in 1984

?

Decided to hide it in case y'all want to guess...

[sportsfan8703]

We got a wall out there. 
 

Will Gibson and the Wall actually help us land a big time SP?