BA updated top 100

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My big concern with Mayo was the swing and miss, and reported vulnerability to low (?) pitches.  But it seems he’s shown good progress in all areas this year.  Here are his Bowie numbers from 2022 and 2023:

2022 (age 20): .250/.331/.398, 34.5% K/PA

2023 (age 21): .284/.408/.528, 26.3% K/PA

BA better, ISO better, K rate better, BB rate better.  Check, check, check and check. 

He’s ready for a promotion, but the system is pretty jammed up, so we’ll see how long they keep him at Bowie.  
 

No prospect is perfect but as you point out, he’s showing improvement in areas that he was weaker in.

He is our second best prospect imo.  Maybe Cowser has gone ahead of him but the age difference matters.

How BA views him as, essentially, our 9th best prospect is beyond me but I do think draft status has a lot to do with it in their eyes. 
 

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No prospect is perfect but as you point out, he’s showing improvement in areas that he was weaker in.

He is our second best prospect imo.  Maybe Cowser has gone ahead of him but the age difference matters.

How BA views him as, essentially, our 9th best prospect is beyond me but I do think draft status has a lot to do with it in their eyes. 
 

I think his defense holds him back some. He’s not going to end up at 3B, at least not for us.  

It’s tricky to compare him to Kjerstad because on the one hand he’s three years younger, and on the other hand he’s had almost 400 more professional at bats because of Kjerstad’s bout with myocarditis.  Obviously, I’d still say that three years count for a lot.  My sense is that Kjerstad has better bat-to-ball skills and that’s why some like him better than Mayo.  

I love discussions like this.  Which of our studs is the better stud?

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Both Kjerstad and Mayo could be integral with Santander, Hays and Mountcastle in their coming arb seasons (and Mountcastle’s struggles this year). With the glut of IF and core up the middle players, the biggest vulnerability amongst the position players is the corner bats. Kjerstad and Mayo are the only prospects in the system that profile to be impact, middle of the order hitters that can provide surplus value at 1B/COF/DH. Maybe Westburg fits the bill, but I’m not sure there’s enough bat there so carry him as an above average player if he’s not bringing 2B/3B defensive value  

We are certainly due for a trade of IF to relieve some of the logjam there, and need higher level SP and probably another bat right now, but I really hope they hang onto both Kjerstad and Mayo when making that deal because there’s a clear path available for them on the major league roster starting in 2024-25. 

[RVAOsFan]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think his defense holds him back some. He’s not going to end up at 3B, at least not for us.  

It’s tricky to compare him to Kjerstad because on the one hand he’s three years younger, and on the other hand he’s had almost 400 more professional at bats because of Kjerstad’s bout with myocarditis.  Obviously, I’d still say that three years count for a lot.  My sense is that Kjerstad has better bat-to-ball skills and that’s why some like him better than Mayo.  

I love discussions like this.  Which of our studs is the better stud?

 

I don't know the answer to this but in a previous post you mentioned Mayo moving up but it being crowded.  Say he did slide over to first base.  A Norfolk infield of Westburg, Ortiz, Norby and Mayo. Wow that is wild.  I hope it never happens because I want to see guys promoted to the major leagues but it is crazy to think about.  

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think his defense holds him back some. He’s not going to end up at 3B, at least not for us.  

It’s tricky to compare him to Kjerstad because on the one hand he’s three years younger, and on the other hand he’s had almost 400 more professional at bats because of Kjerstad’s bout with myocarditis.  Obviously, I’d still say that three years count for a lot.  My sense is that Kjerstad has better bat-to-ball skills and that’s why some like him better than Mayo.  

I love discussions like this.  Which of our studs is the better stud?

 

I think what he is doing at his age (last time I saw, he was one of the 10 youngest players in AA but not sure that’s still the case) is going completely unnoticed by some.

I can’t get behind the defensive stuff. First off, I have yet to see anyone say “he can’t play third”. I think there is doubt that he could be there for the long haul but it’s not like he’s a disaster over there and he clearly has the arm.

I have  also not seen any doubt that he could handle first or a COF spot. He moves well for a guy his size and the arm is there.

He also has the right attitude and just wants to play and will play wherever the team wants him to. I would like to see more walks but the more power he shows, the more the walks will be there.

I think something else that is being ignored is that he is hitting 284 this year. He hit 250 last year. 
 

So, he is showing big power, K’ing less, making more contact and hitting for a higher average.

I don’t  know what’s not to like to be honest.  I would trade several of our much more talked about prospects before I would deal him.

[Frobby]

I’ve seen him play a few times in person, and it’s not that he can’t play third at all, but he’s just not as good there as multiple other players we have.  He’s Tyler Nevin with a better arm.  I’d rather see Urias, Henderson, Westburg or Ortiz there any day.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve seen him play a few times in person, and it’s not that he can’t play third at all, but he’s just not as good there as multiple other players we have.  He’s Tyler Nevin with a better arm.  I’d rather see Urias, Henderson, Westburg or Ortiz there any day.  

That’s fine…and obviously Henderson is your long term answer but just because the other 2 can play third better doesn’t make them a better prospect.

[btdart20]

44 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

How BA views him as, essentially, our 9th best prospect is beyond me

You might be right on the draft slot bias.  Hard to tell.  But I think they take proximity into the rankings to some degree.  Only Jackson and Basallo on their list are behind Mayo (and have the same age advantage).  The rest are essentially MLB ready (or as Just Regular would say "MLB-adjacent").

And obviously defense helps Jackson, Basallo, Westburg, Ortiz, and Cowser.  So does being a high K% SP like Grayson.

He pairs naturally with Kjerstad because neither will play SS/CF/C.  Both are destined to be RF/DH/1B types with Baltimore (Mayo may be more elsewhere).  Both have some K% issues to figure out.  Both have immense power.  IMO, Mayo has a bit more upside defensively because of his arm and experience on the dirt.  And I personally think Mayo's ceiling is higher than Kjerstad's.  And that's no knock on Kjerstad.  

I'd have him behind Jackson and Cowser.  And in the Ortiz/Basallo ceiling tier.

14 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Kjerstad and Mayo are the only prospects in the system that profile to be impact, middle of the order hitters that can provide surplus value at 1B/COF/DH.

I really hope they hang onto both Kjerstad and Mayo when making that deal because there’s a clear path available for them on the major league roster starting in 2024-25. 

That's my take too.  And why I think Elias prices them out of the trade market (i.e. essentially untouchable unless the return is ridiculous - like a flying unicorn/controllable true TOR SP).  

 

[Hank Scorpio]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve seen him play a few times in person, and it’s not that he can’t play third at all, but he’s just not as good there as multiple other players we have.  He’s Tyler Nevin with a better arm.  I’d rather see Urias, Henderson, Westburg or Ortiz there any day.  

We're definitely gonna need a first baseman here at some point soon.......

[Frobby]

On 6/13/2023 at 11:25 AM, maybenxtyr said:

Glad to see Basallo getting some love.

Yes.  His performance has slipped some as the season has progressed (.855 OPS in April, .734 in May, .685 so far in June), but you really can’t complain.  200 PA so far, every single one against a pitcher older than him.  He’s already played more games, had more PA and more innings behind the plate this year than in his DSL/FCL seasons, so I expect fatigue may be a factor for him as the season progresses.

[maybenxtyr]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes.  His performance has slipped some as the season has progressed (.855 OPS in April, .734 in May, .685 so far in June), but you really can’t complain.  200 PA so far, every single one against a pitcher older than him.  He’s already played more games, had more PA and more innings behind the plate this year than in his DSL/FCL seasons, so I expect fatigue may be a factor for him as the season progresses.

I know it's nothing scientific, but I've probably been to 75% of their home games and the sound of his contact off of the bat is awesome. Even when he makes an out it's loud contact most of the time. There's a lot to be excited about with him.

[George Zuverink]

58 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes.  His performance has slipped some as the season has progressed (.855 OPS in April, .734 in May, .685 so far in June), but you really can’t complain.  200 PA so far, every single one against a pitcher older than him.  He’s already played more games, had more PA and more innings behind the plate this year than in his DSL/FCL seasons, so I expect fatigue may be a factor for him as the season progresses.

I was wondering about the fatigue issue with Holiday, who has cooled off also, even though he's not a catcher. It is probably tough for teenagers who have not played a full season of pro ball to adapt to the grind.

Edited June 14, 2023 by George Zuverink

[Gurgi]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ve seen him play a few times in person, and it’s not that he can’t play third at all, but he’s just not as good there as multiple other players we have.  He’s Tyler Nevin with a better arm.  I’d rather see Urias, Henderson, Westburg or Ortiz there any day.  

So your saying he is like Devers......major bat kind of an adventure at third.   I always have liked Devers for Boston but I think he needs to play 1st and not 3rd.  

Now if he could hit like Devers I would be in love.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

So your saying he is like Devers......major bat kind of an adventure at third.   I always have liked Devers for Boston but I think he needs to play 1st and not 3rd.  

Now if he could hit like Devers I would be in love.

I’ve seen Devers a lot more than I’ve seen Mayo, but yeah, I think so.  Maybe Mayo could be a bit better, but that’s a low bar.  
 

 

 

 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ve seen him play a few times in person, and it’s not that he can’t play third at all, but he’s just not as good there as multiple other players we have.  He’s Tyler Nevin with a better arm.  I’d rather see Urias, Henderson, Westburg or Ortiz there any day.  

I think that's a fair assessment of his defense at 3B. I think he has a little more mobility side to side than Nevin, but coming in on balls is not his strength. Literally all of the guys you mentioned are better defensive 3B than Mayo, so Mayo may need to learn 1B.

Mayo now has a career .898 FLD pct in 175 games at 3B. I think it's fair to have some concerns about him defensively at 3B despite the good arm. I'd like to see him get more time at 1B and even some in RF myself just to get him the experience. 

He may slow down too much to be affective in RF longterm but he has the arm for it. 1B is his most likely major league position and personally he should start being a priority play there.