Trading for a rental vs a longer term asset

[Bemorewins]

Don’t get me wrong, I am not wedded to the idea of having to acquire Eduardo Rodriguez, just like I was never married to the idea of Dylan Cease earlier this year. I am however m very bullish on the need to upgrade our rotation. I just don’t see us having great odds for postseason success rolling with what we have now. 3 rounds through the likes of the Yankees, Rays, Rangers, Astros, etc will be daunting enough. We don’t need to go into it with a serious talent disadvantage as it relates to who’s on the bump each game. Besides, IMO we have too much org talent to be content with long odds.

[FlipTheBird]

5 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

The wouldn’t call it that. But feel free if you like. I have watched both pitch on multiple occasions this year and one is not like the other. 

Again, Eduardo was pitching like a Cy Young candidate before his injury. Who knows what he will look like now? But if he is ANYWHERE CLOSE to that same guy, he solves the O’s rotation issues for this year. If you don’t believe me or haven’t really watched him or paid close attention to what he was doing, just check out the numbers he was putting up.

This reply is literally recency bias. E-Rod rattled off a handful of good starts so you're choosing him over more qualified pitchers.

[FlipTheBird]

5 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Hopefully he finishes his rehab and rejoins the team sooner rather than later to give our scouts/front office personnel enough time to evaluate where he is post-injury.

I acknowledge that he has only showed flashes in the past and has never been as good as he was looking this season. But I see some upside in making that kind of calculated risk and that might be closer thing that we get to a frontline starter, if the Marlins are not going to sell.

What I don’t want is another mid to back rotation guy who is more of what we have. We need someone to line up credibly in a game 1/7 situations if we want to have a real chance. 

Eduardo Rodriguez is a mid-to-back of the rotation guy. The guy has logged 180+ career starts - we know exactly what he is and what he isn't. He went on a month long header from mid-April to mid-May, but isn't that guy fulltime.

If he were on this team he could certainly start game 1/7, but he almost assuredly wouldn't have the pedigree of whoever the other team's starting pitcher was. Granted, Jordan Montgomery wouldn't, either. But short of Elias acquiring someone who we haven't even heard bandied about in trade talks, I don't know that there's a true ace-level pitcher available this year.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 6/28/2023 at 7:58 AM, sportsfan8703 said:

Eduardo Rodriguez has too much uncertainty and risk for Elias. Meaning his contract option and injury. 
 

The risk adverse play, and less expensive route, would be to trade for Jordan Montgomery, and convert Grayson to the bullpen in August. Grayson gets to learn how to get hitters out in the pen and saves some face due to his innings limit. 
 

Also, Irvin is not done here. Solely because the value of having a lefty in the rotation, with our wall, has been demonstrated greatly. I think we’ll see Elias maneuver to make the rotation more left handed for next year to fully take advantage of OPACY. 
 

Jordan Montgomery would be a heck of a matchup LH SP in OPACY in the playoffs. 

I think the O's could acquire Montgomery for a little less than the big names  that have bigger reps, but are probably no better.  Is Bieber really any better than Montgomery for example. 

[Bemorewins]

56 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

This reply is literally recency bias. E-Rod rattled off a handful of good starts so you're choosing him over more qualified pitchers.

Please name 1 pitcher this year who will be available who has had a better season than him. Or even 11 consecutive starts that are better than his.

Would you mind sharing with me the name(s) of the starters “more qualified” than him?

[Bemorewins]

55 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

Eduardo Rodriguez is a mid-to-back of the rotation guy. The guy has logged 180+ career starts - we know exactly what he is and what he isn't. He went on a month long header from mid-April to mid-May, but isn't that guy fulltime.

If he were on this team he could certainly start game 1/7, but he almost assuredly wouldn't have the pedigree of whoever the other team's starting pitcher was. Granted, Jordan Montgomery wouldn't, either. But short of Elias acquiring someone who we haven't even heard bandied about in trade talks, I don't know that there's a true ace-level pitcher available this year.

I think that we have to distinguish between career accomplishments and this season.

Yes he has had a very inconsistent career. But this season (for the granted only 11 starts that he made) he was pitching like a Cy Young candidate.

If you say that he is a mid-to-back of the rotation guy, could you name 2 of those types who have had a better stretch than him this year? Or just ONE SINGLE starter on our team who has produced ANYTHING CLOSE to what he has done for an 11 start period?

[now]

6 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think the O's could acquire Montgomery for a little less than the big names  that have bigger reps, but are probably no better.  Is Bieber really any better than Montgomery for example. 

Yeah I'm skeptical too of chasing the hyped or veteran "name" pitchers for playoffs when you're just as likely to have a Boddicker come up from the ranks and outpitch them. I could be proven wrong; would love to see an objective analysis of starters doing well in playoffs and how much it correlates with things like age, experience, previous playoff experience, salary, versus simple ERA+, for example.

[HakunaSakata]

43 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I think that we have to distinguish between career accomplishments and this season.

Yes he has had a very inconsistent career. But this season (for the granted only 11 starts that he made) he was pitching like a Cy Young candidate.

If you say that he is a mid-to-back of the rotation guy, could you name 2 of those types who have had a better stretch than him this year? Or just ONE SINGLE starter on our team who has produced ANYTHING CLOSE to what he has done for an 11 start period?

Why? That's not how statistics work. When we have a large sample size for a player, liked we do with Rodriguez, they inevitably regress to their mean. It would be different if the sample size was much smaller and he was much younger, but that's not the case.  I know your intent on the team making a HUGE move this season, but I think there's less than a 10% chance of that happening and I'm fine with that. I don't want them to just have a shot at making the playoffs this season, I want them to have a shot at making the playoffs for the next decade. And trading any significant minor league talent for a pitcher like Rodriguez seems like a very short sighted and unnecessary move to me. 

[HakunaSakata]

6 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Don’t get me wrong, I am not wedded to the idea of having to acquire Eduardo Rodriguez, just like I was never married to the idea of Dylan Cease earlier this year. I am however m very bullish on the need to upgrade our rotation. I just don’t see us having great odds for postseason success rolling with what we have now. 3 rounds through the likes of the Yankees, Rays, Rangers, Astros, etc will be daunting enough. We don’t need to go into it with a serious talent disadvantage as it relates to who’s on the bump each game. Besides, IMO we have too much org talent to be content with long odds.

The Orioles success this season has mostly been tied to the proficiency of their offense and their starting pitchers keeping them in games. Trading for a big name SP (if one's even available) isn't going to be enough to change that approach this season. They're better off trying to bolster their bullpen and making a trade for a solid if not spectacular LHP (Montomgery fits the mold) this season and addressing the bigger problem in the offseason by signing one of Urias, Nola or Yamamoto (if he posts). In regards to your comment about having too much organization talent, I don't see that as being a problem (yet). If (and that's a big if) the top tier guys all pan out there's still a place for each of them. Gunnar at 3B, Holliday at SS, Westburg at 2B, Cowser and Kjerstad in the OF, etc. 

[Bemorewins]

14 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Why? That's not how statistics work. When we have a large sample size for a player, liked we do with Rodriguez, they inevitably regress to their mean. It would be different if the sample size was much smaller and he was much younger, but that's not the case.  I know your intent on the team making a HUGE move this season, but I think there's less than a 10% chance of that happening and I'm fine with that. I don't want them to just have a shot at making the playoffs this season, I want them to have a shot at making the playoffs for the next decade. And trading any significant minor league talent for a pitcher like Rodriguez seems like a very short sighted and unnecessary move to me. 

Do you consider that he could be having a career year? This could be his deviation from the mean?

I don’t think there is any way to control the next 10 years by what we do this year. How does acquiring Eduardo Rodriguez impact your vision for even next year when he has an opt-out and will likely be an FA?

I believe that we can make multiple runs at a World Series kind of like HOU and ATL now. But I’m not under any delusion that we are going to get there under the current horrible/disinterested ownership that we have now. That is one of the reason why I believe that we should take advantage of the opportunity in front of us because who knows what self-sabotaging action the awful Angelos regime will take to hurt us in the future? Besides, I don’t think with all the unknowable future variables that you can manage a professional sports franchise in 10 year cycles/windows. There impacting factors like injuries and regression that cannot be predicted with any high degree of certainty.

Finally, I do not believe that we can succeed in the post season in the American League as is. Or at least we will enter the postseason as long shots to win 3 rounds. I’m not sure how much you pay attention to our competitors but from what I see objective analysis/data suggests they are simply better equipped/more talented than us in the area the probably matters most in October…. Pitching.

Ok I hear you saying that you don’t want to trade anyone now, but would you acknowledge that we have ONLY ONE SINGULAR pitcher in the ENTIRE organization who has top of the rotation talent. And right now he is struggling to find his form. What if he never becomes what we need him to be? And even if he does the last time I checked the playoffs are won by series which means that you need multiple very effective starters. 

If you look at the last 10 World Series winners, only one team the 2015 Kansas City Royals won a World Series without very good starting pitching and that was because they had a historically elite bullpen. We don’t have that. 

So please tell me beyond hope and luck, how are we going to get to that goal? 

Unless, you are not that concerned about winning championships but just having a consistently, good, solid, stable, steady, winning team for the regular season. If that is the case I understand where you are coming from.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Please name 1 pitcher this year who will be available who has had a better season than him. Or even 11 consecutive starts that are better than his.

Would you mind sharing with me the name(s) of the starters “more qualified” than him?

But your assumption is that he will continue to do that even that all evidence suggests he won’t. 

[Bemorewins]

21 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

The Orioles success this season has mostly been tied to the proficiency of their offense and their starting pitchers keeping them in games. Trading for a big name SP (if one's even available) isn't going to be enough to change that approach this season. They're better off trying to bolster their bullpen and making a trade for a solid if not spectacular LHP (Montomgery fits the mold) this season and addressing the bigger problem in the offseason by signing one of Urias, Nola or Yamamoto (if he posts). In regards to your comment about having too much organization talent, I don't see that as being a problem (yet). If (and that's a big if) the top tier guys all pan out there's still a place for each of them. Gunnar at 3B, Holliday at SS, Westburg at 2B, Cowser and Kjerstad in the OF, etc. 

Eduardo Rodriguez fits the same mold that you describe. He’s just been a lot better than Montgomery this season so far. I don’t think Rodriguez qualifies as some kind of big name.

Also, what leads you to believe that our terrible/uninterested owner would ever spend the money to acquire said FA pitcher in the offseason? Because I have seen literally nothing to suggest that is going to happen or even that he cares enough to try. 

Lastly, I’m not advocating for trading our top end young talent. (The guys that you mentioned). But you don’t need to in order to acquire a player like Eduardo Rodriguez IMO. However I think it is prudent to trade from the excess, I don’t understand why we would not consider trading non-foundational/necessary pieces for a chance to give ourselves better odds in October.

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But your assumption is that he will continue to do that even that all evidence suggests he won’t. 

It is a risk no doubt. But it’s a risk that I’m willing to take. We need someone better than we have now. If not Eduardo Rodriguez (which I am fine with it not being him) then we need someone who can help us even out the odds when facing the other teams’ number one pitchers in October. Currently I don’t believe we have any internal candidates who I would feel reasonably confident in such a scenario. Grayson has all of the talent but he hasn’t put it together at this point.

IMO this was always going to be the inevitable reality given the draft and player acquisition strategy that we have employed for 5 consecutive years.

[HakunaSakata]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Eduardo Rodriguez fits the same mold that you describe. He’s just been a lot better than Montgomery this season so far. I don’t think Rodriguez qualifies as some kind of big name.

Also, what leads you to believe that our terrible/uninterested owner would ever spend the money to acquire said FA pitcher in the offseason? Because I have seen literally nothing to suggest that is going to happen or even that he cares enough to try. 

Lastly, I’m not advocating for trading our top end young talent. (The guys that you mentioned). But you don’t need to in order to acquire a player like Eduardo Rodriguez IMO. However I think it is prudent to trade from the excess, I don’t understand why we would not consider trading non-foundational/necessary pieces for a chance to give ourselves better odds in October.

The Tigers are going to want teams to pay for E-Rod's 2023 stats, which is the very definition of "buying high". That's a losing strategy in both baseball and life. 

[HakunaSakata]

14 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Do you consider that he could be having a career year? This could be his deviation from the mean?

I don’t think there is any way to control the next 10 years by what we do this year. How does acquiring Eduardo Rodriguez impact your vision for even next year when he has an opt-out and will likely be an FA?

I believe that we can make multiple runs at a World Series kind of like HOU and ATL now. But I’m not under any delusion that we are going to get there under the current horrible/disinterested ownership that we have now. That is one of the reason why I believe that we should take advantage of the opportunity in front of us because who knows what self-sabotaging action the awful Angelos regime will take to hurt us in the future? Besides, I don’t think with all the unknowable future variables that you can manage a professional sports franchise in 10 year cycles/windows. There impacting factors like injuries and regression that cannot be predicted with any high degree of certainty.

Finally, I do not believe that we can succeed in the post season in the American League as is. Or at least we will enter the postseason as long shots to win 3 rounds. I’m not sure how much you pay attention to our competitors but from what I see objective analysis/data suggests they are simply better equipped/more talented than us in the area the probably matters most in October…. Pitching.

Ok I hear you saying that you don’t want to trade anyone now, but would you acknowledge that we have ONLY ONE SINGULAR pitcher in the ENTIRE organization who has top of the rotation talent. And right now he is struggling to find his form. What if he never becomes what we need him to be? And even if he does the last time I checked the playoffs are won by series which means that you need multiple very effective starters. 

If you look at the last 10 World Series winners, only one team the 2015 Kansas City Royals won a World Series without very good starting pitching and that was because they had a historically elite bullpen. We don’t have that. 

So please tell me beyond hope and luck, how are we going to get to that goal? 

Unless, you are not that concerned about winning championships but just having a consistently, good, solid, stable, steady, winning team for the regular season. If that is the case I understand where you are coming from.

As I said, the success of this team is bigger then "this year". And believing that 30 year old veteran is having a career year seems pretty similar to buying a lottery ticket and believing that you'll win.