Do you trust Elias at the Deadline?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Baltimorecuse said:

How am I arguing with you?    I'm totally confused by this remark.  Seriously!

If you weren't, let's say, trying to disagree with me, why did you quote my gif and reply to it?

For the record I think his ego is fine but he's too risk adverse.

[Baltimorecuse]

I don't think Elias believes we have the right people in the right places to make a run for the world championship this year.  When he thinks the gun is loaded he'll pull the trigger on spending.  

[Frobby]

On 7/1/2023 at 5:01 PM, 7Mo said:

He also flew to Texas immediately after last deadline and talked about "liftoff".

Elias is disciplined and measured in everything he does. He has a boss that repeatedly promised to "open the books" and then didn't.

I think Elias believed what he said when he said it. Both about "there is money there when it's time" and about "liftoff". I think he believed what he was being told at the time. 

Based on what we've seen from Elias over the last few years and what we've seen from John Angelos, do you think Elias was lying?

I’m pretty satisfied with our liftoff to date.  We’re on pace to win 13-14 more games than last year.  

I’m sure everyone here has watched an actual liftoff on TV.   Does the rocket reach maximum speed five seconds after the countdown ends?   No, it doesn’t.  
 

[Baltimorecuse]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you weren't, let's say, trying to disagree with me, why did you quote my gif and reply to it?

For the record I think his ego is fine but he's too risk adverse.

Sorry I confused you.  It wasn't intended.  

[7Mo]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m pretty satisfied with our liftoff to date.  We’re on pace to win 13-14 more games than last year.  

I’m sure everyone here has watched an actual liftoff on TV.   Does the rocket reach maximum speed five seconds after the countdown ends?   No, it doesn’t.  
 

I'm not disappointed in the pace at all and I think Elias is well satisfied with where we sit today.

I think his target is more October '24 than this year. And I don't disagree with that approach.

[spiritof66]

33 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you weren't, let's say, trying to disagree with me, why did you quote my gif and reply to it?

For the record I think his ego is fine but he's too risk adverse.

I think Elias's extreme risk averseness comes in part from his nature, but also in part from the following factors:  (a) he's in his first GM job and so ar has performed well, (b) he has no record of trade-making to speak of, with either Houston (so far as I know) or Baltimore, and (c) he likely believes he could be out of a job any time because the owner dies, the team is sold, and the new owner wants to bring in a new GM no mattter how successful Elias has been, and (c) he worries that he'll make only one or two trades of real talent before he's looking for another job and one of the guys he trades, given the opportunity, could turn out to be a big star elsewhere.

Elias may well figure that a bad trade would impair his chances to get another GM job more than standing pat would.  Still, unless they change the rules so you can play six guys at 2B/3B/SS and need a pitcher for only six innings, he's got to make a talent-for-talent trade sometime. I have no idea when "sometime" is, and it doesn't seem to be getting closer.

[Fiver6565]

10 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I think Elias's extreme risk averseness comes in part from his nature, but also in part from the following factors:  (a) he's in his first GM job and so ar has performed well, (b) he has no record of trade-making to speak of, with either Houston (so far as I know) or Baltimore, and (c) he likely believes he could be out of a job any time because the owner dies, the team is sold, and the new owner wants to bring in a new GM no mattter how successful Elias has been, and (c) he worries that he'll make only one or two trades of real talent before he's looking for another job and one of the guys he trades, given the opportunity, could turn out to be a big star elsewhere.

Elias may well figure that a bad trade would impair his chances to get another GM job more than standing pat would.  Still, unless they change the rules so you can play six guys at 2B/3B/SS and need a pitcher for only six innings, he's got to make a talent-for-talent trade sometime. I have no idea when "sometime" is, and it doesn't seem to be getting closer.

I think you’re completely off with almost all of this. Elias would have to massively screw up to not be essentially first in line if the Os dumped him. It’s very widely known rhe job he’s done building up our system. Another down and out team (at the very least) would grab him immediately if he became available. One or two trades that don’t work out in his favor aren’t going to change that at all. 
 

I don’t think Job security is even 1% on Elias’ mind. 

[sportsfan8703]

I think we go the rental route and take more risk this offseason on trades and FA deals. We need to figure out what we can get out of Grayson, Givens, Tate, Means, Mountcastle, and Wandisson Charles the rest of the season. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Baltimorecuse said:

I don't think Elias believes we have the right people in the right places to make a run for the world championship this year.  When he thinks the gun is loaded he'll pull the trigger on spending.  

You think Elias controls the spending and not Scrooge.... I mean John Angelos? 

[bluedog]

I have been blown away with Elias' ability to get value out of guys where my first reaction to the O's acquiring them ranged from shrugged shoulders to outright shock and despair.

So do I trust him? Yes.

But I think he will probably make moves that aren't initially popular with most people on OH (me included).

I hope those moves end up like Yennier Cano and not like Cole Irvin (so far).

[bluedog]

43 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

I think you’re completely off with almost all of this. Elias would have to massively screw up to not be essentially first in line if the Os dumped him. It’s very widely known rhe job he’s done building up our system. Another down and out team (at the very least) would grab him immediately if he became available. One or two trades that don’t work out in his favor aren’t going to change that at all. 
 

I don’t think Job security is even 1% on Elias’ mind. 

Agreed.

Elias may be the most desirable GM in the game right now for any team that's looking to do a rebuild.

If the O's parted ways with him, he'd have his pick of jobs.

[Baltimorecuse]

40 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

You think Elias controls the spending and not Scrooge.... I mean John Angelos? 

I don't think Elias would stay here if he thought he couldn't get the money to do the job.  

After the Chris Davis fiasco, I think Angelos is a bit tighter.  

But look at the clubs that aren't doing great that spent boodles.  

Check out Stanton's OPS.  He's in Frazier territory.  What's Chris Sales doing these days.  

Edited July 3, 2023 by Baltimorecuse

[Three Run Homer]

2 hours ago, Baltimorecuse said:

I don't think Elias believes we have the right people in the right places to make a run for the world championship this year.  When he thinks the gun is loaded he'll pull the trigger on spending.  

You may be right but I think that's the wrong attitude.  If you're in a good position to make the playoffs, you have make the moves to improve your chances of making the playoffs.  Once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen.  Even if you don't win a championship, getting playoff experience now can help you win a championship in the future.  And you can't put all your eggs in next season's basket--you never know what will happen with injuries or sudden ineffectiveness.  

[bluedog]

13 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

I don't think Elias would stay here if he thought he couldn't get the money to do the job.  

This.

I would be stunned if Elias chose to join the O's without first getting confirmation that ownership would spend to support a winning team. I wouldn't be surprised if his contract includes a commitment by management to increase payroll to a specified level at his request.

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, Three Run Homer said:

You may be right but I think that's the wrong attitude.  If you're in a good position to make the playoffs, you have make the moves to improve your chances of making the playoffs.  Once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen.  Even if you don't win a championship, getting playoff experience now can help you win a championship in the future.  And you can't put all your eggs in next season's basket--you never know what will happen with injuries or sudden ineffectiveness.  

Grayson still has the ability to be a TOR.  Means could be back.  It would be really tough to have to part with Joey Ortiz for Jordan Montgomery, but that might be the cost.