Hypothetical deadline trades - package pulse check

[clapdiddy]

Goldschmidt and a reliever.   That's who I'd go after.

[baltimoreO's22]

One thing to keep in mind with Goldy, he has a full no-trade clause. I'm not sure what destinations he'd approve a trade to, but I don't think it bodes well for him to be moved at all. 

[Sports Guy]

56 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

You think that @ 28 y/o the 101 ip this year Burnes has pitched is more indicative of future success than his previous 515?  I don’t think the Brewers or other MLB execs see it that way. 
 

I just don’t see a team in a playoff hunt moving a guy who has been one of the best pitches in baseball the last few years and who is still 28.  

Here’s the thing..players do peak early. The drop in Burnes stats is alarming.

We aren’t talking about him being unlucky. The K rate is way down, BBs are way up, FIP is the highest it’s been, by far, since he become a full time starter.

He isn’t missing bats at nearly the level he was.

Now, he has some great statcast numbers with the batted ball data and that’s the real positive.

I don’t believe he’s done as being a very good pitcher and I’m sure some will say he’s not as focused because of the offseason issues he had with the team but he has some definite alarming things going on and that can’t be overlooked.

As I said, I don’t think this gets the deal done but I also don’t feel it’s way off either. 
 

He is expensive, he doesn’t have a lot of service time left and he is having a down season. 
 

Now, if he comes out and has 3-5 great starts and improves more on those numbers and looks to be getting back to who he was, that could change things but as of today, he has a lot of red flags.

I would still deal for him, just as I would deal for Bieber (prefer Burnes), but I’m also not giving up top level prospects to get him because of those red flags.

[lifelongbirdfan]

3 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I think the chances either the Brewers or Cardinals do those trades is somewhere in the zero range. Any team contemplating a major deal with the Orioles is going to hold out for at least one of the following players:

Henderson

Holliday

Mayo

Cowser

Westburg

Kjerstad

Basallo

I know. I know. Those guys are (mostly) untouchable in our books. But nobody is going to trade us a #1 or #2 pitcher w/o getting at least one sure fire stud prospect back in the deal, and I don't think Norby, Ortiz, Povich, or Prieto fit that description. 

I'm not sure.  Just because we have a top farm system doesn't mean a team is guaranteed to get one of our best 5-7 prospects.  While a team with only 2 Top-100 prospects will be forced to trade one of them since they have nothing else to offer, I am hopeful we can deal from our excess like Norby, Prieto, Ortiz.  Think of the Dodgers a few years back, they chose who they wanted to hang on to and didn't give up their top guys.   For Machado, we couldn't land their untouchable guys.  Really, only to get Betts in his prime did they give Verdugo. My point is, I think we should shop our excess and hold the top guys for any rentals. I would only give up one of the studs for multiple years of an ace. 

[Can_of_corn]

I love the hubris that the O's can get quality players back by trading chaff.

You got the old one-two punch of trying to dump players the poster doesn't like and the idea that four relatively unappealing players is somehow going to get it done. 

You trade a lower tier prospect and you get Cole Irvin in return.

[bpilktree67]

34 minutes ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

One thing to keep in mind with Goldy, he has a full no-trade clause. I'm not sure what destinations he'd approve a trade to, but I don't think it bodes well for him to be moved at all. 

He wants to win though and one of reasons he went to the Cardinals.  That has not worked out and if you look at their team it is not going to happen anytime soon.  They are dead last and have basically nothing in their farm system.  The Cardinals need to do a full tear down and rebuild from scratch.,  He is not going to want to play for a team that will be fighting just to stay out of the basement the next year plus especially with him aging and never being on a winning team.  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, bpilktree67 said:

He wants to win though and one of reasons he went to the Cardinals.  That has not worked out and if you look at their team it is not going to happen anytime soon.  They are dead last and have basically nothing in their farm system.  The Cardinals need to do a full tear down and rebuild from scratch.,  He is not going to want to play for a team that will be fighting just to stay out of the basement the next year plus especially with him aging and never being on a winning team.  

If I'm him I'm going to want an extra year or two tacked onto my contract.  I wouldn't want to uproot myself for a year and a half than have to do it again going into my age 37 season.

[baltimoreO's22]

5 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

He wants to win though and one of reasons he went to the Cardinals.  That has not worked out and if you look at their team it is not going to happen anytime soon.  They are dead last and have basically nothing in their farm system.  The Cardinals need to do a full tear down and rebuild from scratch.,  He is not going to want to play for a team that will be fighting just to stay out of the basement the next year plus especially with him aging and never being on a winning team.  

That's fine to say, but the Cards have to be willing to trade him AND he has to be willing to go there. The Athletic reported over the weekend that any trade involving Goldy is unlikely, because St Louis thinks they can compete next year. 

[drjohnnyfever1]

Whatever they do, I don't see them trading prospects they expect on the team within the next 1-2, maybe 2.5 years, particularly those that would be replacing the Santander-type players we have on the team now.  Not knocking Santander, just pointing out that there are a number of placeholders on the team right now and I don't see them trying to pull off Duquette-esque trades either, much less trying to dump some of the players mentioned in the OP.

I don't think after all this patience in drafting and waiver building over the years they are going to deplete the prospect base we presently have too much.  I think we're more likely to be conservative and look for bullpen depth, maybe a number 2 starter, and perhaps an upgrade at 1st base.

[Sports Guy]

They don’t have to trade their top guys to get deals done. That’s what having a good farm system with great defense allows you to do.

 

[bpilktree67]

You either trade with quality or quantity.  If you have a deep system you can trade just using your quantity and not have to give up your top talent.    Ortiz would rank as the number 2 prospect in the Cardinals organization if traded and Norby would be ranked 3rd.  Ortiz and Norby are both top 100 prospects in baseball it is just our system is so deep that they usually get overlooked by many here.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

You either trade with quality or quantity.  If you have a deep system you can trade just using your quantity and not have to give up your top talent.    Ortiz would rank as the number 2 prospect in the Cardinals organization if traded and Norby would be ranked 3rd.  Ortiz and Norby are both top 100 prospects in baseball it is just our system is so deep that they usually get overlooked by many here.  

You can't just substitute quantity for quality.

Sometimes you can find a team that is trying to rebuild and has an honest need for quantity but it isn't a given.  I've not heard anything about the Cardinals planing a full tear down rebuild.

[bluedog]

4 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I think the chances either the Brewers or Cardinals do those trades is somewhere in the zero range. Any team contemplating a major deal with the Orioles is going to hold out for at least one of the following players:

Henderson

Holliday

Mayo

Cowser

Westburg

Kjerstad

Basallo

I know. I know. Those guys are (mostly) untouchable in our books. But nobody is going to trade us a #1 or #2 pitcher w/o getting at least one sure fire stud prospect back in the deal, and I don't think Norby, Ortiz, Povich, or Prieto fit that description. 

This. As much as I'd like to get a TOR starter back for a package that doesn't include one or more "A" prospects (those listed above plus GRod), I don't see it happening unless its a rental / salary dump.

I guess there is a possibility that a deal including 2 or 3 of Prieto/Ortiz/Norby/Beavers/Fabian/Wagner/Haskins + 2 or 3 of the O's top pitching prospects not named Rodriguez might get a deal done assuming its the best offer available.  

[bluedog]

12 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

You either trade with quality or quantity.  If you have a deep system you can trade just using your quantity and not have to give up your top talent.    Ortiz would rank as the number 2 prospect in the Cardinals organization if traded and Norby would be ranked 3rd.  Ortiz and Norby are both top 100 prospects in baseball it is just our system is so deep that they usually get overlooked by many here.  

Totally agree that Norby and Ortiz are valuable. I just think human nature is such that anyone with a controllable TOR starter is going to want multiple Top 100 prospects headlines by one of our "elite" guys. I think Norby and Ortiz work as the 2nd player in such a trade - but not the first.

I'd be thrilled if Elias can convince the Brewers to take both Ortiz and Norby plus several lottery ticket pitchers in exchange for Burns - I just don't expect that to be enough for Milwaukee.

Edited July 3, 2023 by bluedog

[bpilktree67]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You can't just substitute quantity for quality.

Sometimes you can find a team that is trying to rebuild and has an honest need for quantity but it isn't a given.  I've not heard anything about the Cardinals planing a full tear down rebuild.

I don't think they thought they would be this bad.  They have 108 million on the 5 guys that they control right now in Arenado, Goldy, Mikolas, Matz, and Contreras.  That is an aging and declining core of players and if you look at their farm it is one of the weakest in baseball.  They might want to go for it again another year because of playing in a weak division but I think that is just prolonging their decline.  Now they can support a 160 million payroll if they want but i think they have way too many holes to fill and will still have a medicore team at best next year or two especially with the Reds as a young and upcoming team.