Midseason top 10 ranking

[now]

1. Mayo
2. Holliday
3. Basallo
4. Kjerstad
5. Cowser
6. Westburg
7. *Willems > Bradfield
8. *Ortiz >Willems
9. *Fabian > Ortiz
10. *Haskin > Haskin

I like power, and youth.

(* updated)

Edited July 13, 2023 by now

[baltimoriole]

4 minutes ago, Otter said:

1. Holliday

2. Cowser

3. Westburg

4. Kjerstad

5. Mayo

6. Ortiz

7. Basallo

8. Norby

9. Fabian

10. Willems (He gets the nod over Hall because the mullet beats the recently cut locks of Hall...)

Is this top 10 positional prospect rankings?! 

[CaptainRedbeard]

44 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Worth noting that Fangraphs has been considerably higher on Mayo and lower on Cowser than virtually anyone else.

Mayo probably has more offensive potential than Cowser. But in the same way you noted the defensive value that Fabian/Basallo have, Colton has a high floor because of his own positional value. Especially if Mayo is moved to 1B. And Cowser has a longer track record including his best production at the highest level. That’s enough for me to keep him above Coby for now.

I was just using the FV system not trying to mirror Fangraphs, but yeah Fangraphs was out in front on Mayo. They were also way too low on Cowser and Westburg IMO, but a lot of that is still dependent on how their defense ends up.

Very reasonable to have Cowser ahead of Mayo for the reasons you said, I just think Mayo’s immense upside slots him higher. Cowser is definitely higher floor.

Holliday is untouchable and for me, Mayo would only be considered for the type of elite player with multiple years of control that never actually hits the market. Cowser and Kjerstad don’t reach that level IMO, but where the Orioles are with Mullins, Hays and Santander all in their arb years, I don’t envision any trade where it makes sense to move them. Fabian might be there too for the same reason.

[Pat Kelly]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

Did you mean to omit Westburg?   

Yes I wasn’t considering him eligible given he is up and expect him to stay.  Would slot him where you did after Cowser. 

[Just Regular]

I kind of have Mayo and Basallo in a tier above Westburg, though granted some of that is excitement how well they are following up Gunnar's '22.

Really leaning into it, I think there's a chance Gunnar/Mayo/Basallo by age 25 might put up WAR Westburg might not reach in his whole career.

Our work with college aged guys has been good, but the high school/IFA guys look off the charts.     Big talent preps in the first few rounds is the primordial ooze of Ripken and Murray, and of course Gunnar, Mayo and Basallo could be very good at a small fraction of HOF production.

Westburg's done everything asked of him, and I don't rule out he could have a high gear, but Age is such a big deal for position players.

[emmett16]

1. Holiday

2. Mayo

3. Basallo

4. Cowser 

5. Kjerstad 

6. Westburg

7. Ortiz

8. Fabian 

9. Willems

10. Povich 

_____________

11. McDermott

12. Norby 

 

[Flash- bd]

On what basis are people putting Mayo over Holliday? That coming from someone who loves Mayo...

 

1. Holliday

t2. Cowser (guy has a .996 OPS at AAA and is a plus fielder...as much as I love Mayo I have a hard time separating them)

t2. Mayo

4. Kjerstad

5. Basallo

6. Ortiz (.992 OPS at AAA and the better fielder of he and Westburg, think he deserves the slight nod)

7. Westburg

8. Fabian

9. Povich

10. Hall (think they'll find a way to get his velocity back...whether he'll ever command is another question...)

[Otter]

5 hours ago, baltimoriole said:

Is this top 10 positional prospect rankings?! 

Haha, I'd love to include a pitcher but I just don't see one worthy of being in the top ten...

[Yossarian]

If we bundled up those top 10, would that get the O's a #1starting pitcher?

[oriolefan1035]

1. Holliday

2. Cowser

3. Westburg

4. Mayo

5. Kjerstad

6. Ortiz

7. Basallo

8. Armbruester

9. McDermott

10. Hall

[ShoelesJoe]

10 hours ago, Flash- bd said:

On what basis are people putting Mayo over Holliday?

Coby Mayo -- .316 / .431 / .628 / 1.059 at AA

Jackson Holliday -- .295 / .440 / .472 / .912 at A+

Holliday is two years younger and has more defensive value, but I doubt he'll ever have a pro season with a .600 SLG%. Right now for me it's a toss-up between the two. 

[Billy F-Face3]

22 hours ago, baltfan said:

Why Mayo so low?

I want to make sure he sees more advanced spin rates and breaking balls from the pitching competition he faces, and that he can handle higher levels of pitching like that. He seems to be a fast ball hitter mostly. (When I watched him play at Bowie, he didn't do much of anything that game, so I also might be forming this list based on a negative first impression.) At AA he's not been exposed to as many pitchers with higher spin rates. I could use that same rationale for Jackson Holliday etc, but I feel the difference is that everyone in baseball seems to agree that Jackson is special under abnormal circumstances between all his natural skills, talent, and upbringing. The fact that he grew up in Pro Baseball, is comfortable around the bright lights, and knows how to manage his environment, gives Jackson an edge over other top prospects.

Most of the publications I've seen has Mayo ranked somewhere around 6-8 in the Orioles organization. And like I mentioned in my original post, I try to give tie breakers in my rankings to players who have already reached a higher level of league and performed. That's because they face tougher pitching/competition.

With all of that said, Mayo very well could be one of our top 3 prospects and the baseball world is just lagging behind to take notice. I like to be a little more reserved before I crown someone.

[waroriole]

Holliday

Cowser

Westburg

Mayo

Kjerstad

Ortiz

Basallo

Norby

Hall

Povich

 

[LookinUp]

I just can't believe this system. Crazy. Holliday is 1. I think it's debatable between Cowser and Mayo. Then after the top 7 (which I have no idea how to order 4-7), I think you can make a case for various guys. I'll say Showalter is the high flyer pitcher this year, and still pray that Baumler has 1/2 a great season and puts himself up here. Then there's the upcoming draft.

1. Holliday
2. Mayo
3. Cowser
4. Basallo
5. Kjerstad
6. Ortiz
7. Westburg
8. Showalter
9. Hall
10. Fabian
 

[Jammer7]

1. Holliday SS*

2. Cowser OF*

3. Kjerstad OF*

4. Mayo 3B

5. Westburg 2B/3B

6. Basallo C*

7. Povich LHP

8. Norby 2B/OF

9. Fabian CF

10. McDermott RHP

Just missed: Prieto, Willems, Hall, Beavers, Haskin