FA starters available in the offseason

[deward]

If we take Elias at his word that he had multi-year offers out for pitchers this past off-season, then he clearly got left behind by the market in every case. I don't see any reason to think this off-season would play out any differently. If they aren't willing to beat (or at least match) other team's best offers for good starting pitchers, then those good starting pitchers aren't coming here. I see no evidence that the team is willing to do that. If they sign anyone, it'll be another Gibson type on a one year deal (that 5.19 home ERA isn't doing a good job of selling me on the idea that just putting mediocre pitchers in front of the wall is a solution; same with Kremer's 5.51 home ERA).

They're going to have to trade for someone to get a meaningful improvement over the current in-house options. 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 7/6/2023 at 11:43 AM, Sports Guy said:

Means 

Depending on if Means is able to come back and pitch this year, I would like to sign him to a 2 year extension w/ an option.  I believe 2024 is his last year before free agency.  He was set up for a big payday before his injury.  Will need to stay healthy and put up good numbers to get a multi-year contract.  Maybe offer him a 2 year deal/$16 mill.  Bonuses for # of starts to take it to $24 mill ($12 mill/year).  Would be a big upgrade from Gibson if healthy for not much more money.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, deward said:

If we take Elias at his word that he had multi-year offers out for pitchers this past off-season, then he clearly got left behind by the market in every case. I don't see any reason to think this off-season would play out any differently. If they aren't willing to beat (or at least match) other team's best offers for good starting pitchers, then those good starting pitchers aren't coming here. I see no evidence that the team is willing to do that. If they sign anyone, it'll be another Gibson type on a one year deal (that 5.19 home ERA isn't doing a good job of selling me on the idea that just putting mediocre pitchers in front of the wall is a solution; same with Kremer's 5.51 home ERA).

They're going to have to trade for someone to get a meaningful improvement over the current in-house options. 

Until the O's have an owner that is willing to spend money, they won't be winning any free agent auctions (at least of players other teams want to sign).

[HakunaSakata]

12 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Don't forget about Sonny Gray. He's only in the middle of a Cy Young campaign...

Lots of red flags in what Sonny Gray is doing this season. I'd steer clear. 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/sonny-gray-543243?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

[HakunaSakata]

4 hours ago, Finisher said:

Urias and Sonny Gray will get too much.

Some decent mid tier guys having nice bounceback seasons. Kyle Hendricks, James Paxton, Cobb. But even this level may be too expensive for us. Could see us going after Michael Lorenzen.

The difference is, Urias is worth it, whereas Gray is not. I also don't get the "too expensive for us" mentality. They'd certainly be better off spending a bit more for a better pitcher then wasting money on retreads like Cobb or Lorzenzen. Nothing in their underlying numbers suggest they're good pitchers.

[OriolesMagic83]

23 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

The difference is, Urias is worth it, whereas Gray is not. I also don't get the "too expensive for us" mentality. They'd certainly be better off spending a bit more for a better pitcher then wasting money on retreads like Cobb or Lorzenzen. Nothing in their underlying numbers suggest they're good pitchers.

Yes, no more inning eaters like Lyles and Gibson.  This franchise is run like the Dollar Store. 

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think part of the strategy is that they just don’t value starters as much as we think they should and that they feel they can get enough out of the starters, especially with Walltimore, that spending a lot on starters isn’t worth it.

 

That and the O's have an owner that doesn't want to spend money.  If the O's had an owner that was fine with a $200 million payroll, do you think Elias would only spend on an "inning eater" starter?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

That and the O's have an owner that doesn't want to spend money.  If the O's had an owner that was fine with a $200 million payroll, do you think Elias would only spend on an "inning eater" starter?

I don’t think Elias would spend much in FA even if he was allowed to. He knows FA, as a whole, isn’t a smart way to do business.

[MarCakes21]

6 hours ago, Finisher said:

Urias and Sonny Gray will get too much.

Some decent mid tier guys having nice bounceback seasons. Kyle Hendricks, James Paxton, Cobb. But even this level may be too expensive for us. Could see us going after Michael Lorenzen.

What's too much?  I'd easily pony up for Urias, with 6 years given his age and history.  Though I'm sure ownership won't.

What's he projected to get?

[MarCakes21]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think Elias would spend much in FA even if he was allowed to. He knows FA, as a whole, isn’t a smart way to do business.

I agree with you and his mindset too.  But he at the same time understands he needs to augment.  We as the OH haven't always agreed, but his signings generally haven't proven to be bad deals either.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

I agree with you and his mindset too.  But he at the same time understands he needs to augment.  We as the OH haven't always agreed, but his signings generally haven't proven to be bad deals either.

Oh he needs to sign someone but he will not go more than 3 years imo.

[DocJJ]

Is anyone else underwhelmed by this list??  The best names on it are old and at the very ends of their careers... Lots of guys have had arm troubles or just had mixed results....  

 

This list stinks... (mostly)...

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, MarCakes21 said:

What's too much?  I'd easily pony up for Urias, with 6 years given his age and history.  Though I'm sure ownership won't.

What's he projected to get?

I remember reading somewhere 8 / $250M, but that seems a bit high to me based on how the market played out last season. He's not going to be cheap. I can't remember the last time a young LHP who was that young/good was a FA. 

[Bemorewins]

41 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

Is anyone else underwhelmed by this list??  The best names on it are old and at the very ends of their careers... Lots of guys have had arm troubles or just had mixed results....  

 

This list stinks... (mostly)...

This is true for the most part IMO. Ohtani (who is not realistic) does not match your description, neither does Urias from LAD. He is not having a great season thus far in his 12 starts. But prior to that was Cy Young caliber. He will only be 27 in August. 

Having said all that, I have no faith in our terrible owner to ever be an asset to the efforts of the team winning a World Series. If we win, it will be in spit of not because of or with IMO.

[Bemorewins]

8 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I remember reading somewhere 8 / $250M, but that seems a bit high to me based on how the market played out last season. He's not going to be cheap. I can't remember the last time a young LHP who was that young/good was a FA. 

I'm certainly not in the crowd who believes no FA are ever worth it and thus we should not use it as a meaningful tool to improve the team. And I would love Urias, that length of deal would retain him until his age 36 season. That sounds about what the market will bear.

I just can't see the ownership of our team even being remotely interested in doing a deal like that. I doubt very much that he would be willing to give a contract half that much (maybe not even a third if I'm being honest/realistic).