2023 18th Round Pick (#541): Tanner Witt - RHP - (Jr) Texas (TX)

[Number5]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Maybe they would rather not sign one of their earlier picks to make sure they get this guy?

I don't think that works.  If we don't sign a top ten round pick, we lose the slot money  We cant use it to sign Witt.  As I understand it, we must sign the player in order to use the slot money, so the idea is to sign players under slot and hope the slot savings add up to enough to sign Witt.

[Tony-OH]

Have to imagine Witt is the fall back if Jackson Baumeister wants too much. Other than that, unless he just wants to get his pro career started, I don't see where they will save enough to get him to his number that's probably pretty high due to where he fell.

[baltfan]

15 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

This doesn't look promising but it could all be part of a negotiation ploy. 

This is even more depressing if you click on the picture in the Tweet.

[AdleysPecks]

15 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

This doesn't look promising but it could all be part of a negotiation ploy. 

Definitely a negotiation ploy. I noticed on Twitter, the Verge believed him though. Maybe they have inside info? Not sure. Our winning ways may help the odds he signs IMO. 25-40% odds?

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, AdleysPecks said:

Definitely a negotiation ploy. I noticed on Twitter, the Verge believed him though. Maybe they have inside info? Not sure. Our winning ways may help the odds he signs IMO. 25-40% odds?

Yea I’m not sure I buy this or not. 

[AdleysPecks]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I’m not sure I buy this or not. 

Do folks from The Verge post here? I think it’s run by an OH competitor, BSL.

[Tony-OH]

Also, judging by his twitter posts, right now he thinks he's going back to college. I'm not sure how they will have enough money to get him into the fold. The key will be, can they show that professionally they can bring back TJS guys better than college and can they develop him faster and get him to the big leagues? 

I'm not sure the Orioles have that record of pitcher development and coming back from injury to success yet. This kid was once a 1st round talent that was held back by TJS so I just don't see the Orioles figuring a way to get enough money together for him to sign.

I guess you never know, but I'd be shocked if they got him to sign. 

One thing to remember last year the Orioles saved $652,200 on Holliday alone because the huge amount of money slotted for the first overall pick. I don't see them saving that money elsewhere this year since everyone selected don't seem like a reach within the first 3 rounds where the most savings can be had.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, AdleysPecks said:

Do folks from The Verge post here? I think it’s run by an OH competitor, BSL.

No they don’t 

[Tony-OH]

9 minutes ago, AdleysPecks said:

Definitely a negotiation ploy. I noticed on Twitter, the Verge believed him though. Maybe they have inside info? Not sure. Our winning ways may help the odds he signs IMO. 25-40% odds?

Why would you think a bunch of fanboys like "The Verge" would have inside information? Take them for what their worth. They post a lot of good vides from minor league games though you can get those same videos usually from the minor league team twitter sites now anyways. 

Saying that, I guess being an up and coming team that needs pitching could potentially be a lure, but in the end, money will talk.

[AdleysPecks]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Why would you think a bunch of fanboys like "The Verge" would have inside information? Take them for what there worth. They publish a lot of good vides from games though you can get those same videos usually from the minor league team twitter sites now anyways. 

Saying that, I guess being an up and coming team that needs pitching could potenitally be a lure, but in the end, money will talk.

Ha. I like their content but it’s like listening to Jim Hunter at times. Fanboys is a good characterization

[baltfan]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Also, judging by his twitter posts, right now he thinks he's going back to college. I'm not sure how they will have enough money to get him into the fold. The key will be, can they show that professionally they can bring back TJS guys better than college and can they develop him faster and get him to the big leagues? 

I'm not sure the Orioles have that record of pitcher development and coming back from injury to success yet. This kid was once a 1st round talent that was held back by TJS so I just don't see the Orioles figuring a way to get enough money together for him to sign.

I guess you never know, but I'd be shocked if they got him to sign. 

One thing to remember last year the Orioles saved $652,200 on Holliday alone because the huge amount of money slotted for the first overall pick. I don't see them saving that money elsewhere this year since everyone selected don't seem like a reach within the first 3 rounds where the most savings can be had.

Although injuries can make people look at things differently, Witt bet on himself before when he went to college.  He also probably knows that even if he doesn't have particularly great stats next year, there will still be teams that are willing to take a chance based on him still recovering.  Realistically, his worst case scenario next year is probably the third round.  

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, baltfan said:

Although injuries can make people look at things differently, Witt bet on himself before when he went to college.  He also probably knows that even if he doesn't have particularly great stats next year, there will still be teams that are willing to take a chance based on him still recovering.  Realistically, his worst case scenario next year is probably the third round.  

Yeah, that's a pretty good assessment. I'm sure he's told team's his number this year and that's why he wasn't taken until the "flier" rounds by the Orioles. Can the Orioles get close enough to his number and convince him they will rehab him and get him to the majors quicker than by going back to college? Might be a hard sell.

[btdart20]

16 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Although injuries can make people look at things differently, Witt bet on himself before when he went to college.  He also probably knows that even if he doesn't have particularly great stats next year, there will still be teams that are willing to take a chance based on him still recovering.  Realistically, his worst case scenario next year is probably the third round.  

If nothing else, he's playing the negotiations game right.  The background pic looking manicured is less believing than the hook 'em horns and quotes.

1.1 will be close to $10m.  

1.8 will be over $6m.

1.18 will be over $4m.

1.30 will be $2.8+m.

3rd round will begin over $1m and close in the $700ish-k range.

He does seem like the type of bet on himself AND has the talent to back it up.  $1.5m might not get it done because it's probably close to his 2024 floor anyway.  Getting to $2m on our offer might be needed.  

But the metric-based picks "could" be the path toward that end.  (And yes, my fandom is showing...)

[clapdiddy]

What would happen if they really want this kid and offer him more than what they have in the pool?   How much over the pool can they go w/o penalty?   

[btdart20]

10 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

What would happen if they really want this kid and offer him more than what they have in the pool?   How much over the pool can they go w/o penalty?   

From 0-5% overage has a 75% penalty tax.  After that teams start losing draft picks.

5-10% = 75% and a first round pick

10-15% = 100% penalty and a first and second round pick

15+% = 100% and two first round picks

MLB Draft 2023 bonus pools, pick values

Some key quotes:

Teams that exceed their bonus pool face a penalty. Clubs that outspend their allotment by 0-5 percent pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. At higher thresholds, teams lose future picks: a first-rounder and a 75 percent tax for surpassing their pool by more than 5 and up to 10 percent; a first- and a second-rounder and a 100 percent tax for more than 10 and up to 15 percent; and two first-rounders and a 100 percent tax for more than 15 percent.

Each selection in the first 10 rounds comes with an assigned value, with the total for a club's picks equaling what it can spend in those rounds without incurring a penalty. If a player taken in the top 10 rounds doesn't sign, his choice's value gets subtracted from his team's pool. Clubs near the top of the Draft often spend less than the assigned value for those choices and use the savings to offer more money to later selections.