Kyle Stowers: I hope we trade him after rebuilding his value

[Greg Pappas]

I've seen both Kyle Stowers (25 yo) and DL Hall (24 yo) mentioned in trade discussions and believe it's typically better to rebuild a prospect's perceived value, rather than dealing them while that value is sub optimal. I don't expect Elias to deal either away for this reason, though it's not out of the realm of possibilities.

I've never been high on Stowers, mostly because he strikes out 28% of the time and has a .261 BA over his minor league and brief major league career.  However, while he's been passed in prospect rankings by Cowser and Kjjerstad, a closer look reveals a better player than I once believed.  I roughly see a .240 BA/.320 OBP/.450 SLG/.770'ish OPS guy at the big league level that can play a solid corner outfield and even a decent CF, if needed.  He'll never steal bases, but he's not a plodder either and should be good for 20+ HR's per season.  To me, this says at least a league average OF.  There is value in that.  This is just how I view his talents, yet those with more educated views may feel differently.

He's has a shoulder injury this season that set him back, but he should fully recover soon. 

So, while dealing Stowers makes a lot of sense, I hope Elias gives him time to rebuild his value at AAA before pulling the trigger.

Thoughts?

Edited July 14, 2023 by Greg Pappas
Better title. More clearly defines my intent.

[Sports Guy]

I think teams know what he is And that a few good weeks in AAA isn’t really going to change his value.

[Filmstudy]

Just now, Greg Pappas said:

I've seen both Kyle Stowers (25 yo) and DL Hall (24 yo) mentioned in trade discussions and believe it's typically better to rebuild a prospect's perceived value, rather than dealing them while that value is sub optimal. I don't expect Elias to deal either away for this reason, though it's not out of the realm of possibilities.

I've never been high on Stowers, mostly because he strikes out 28% of the time and has a .261 BA over his minor league and brief major league career.  However, while he's been passed in prospect rankings by Cowser and Kjjerstad, a closer look reveals a better player than I once believed.  I roughly see a .240 BA/.320 OBP/.450 SLG/.770'ish OPS guy at the big league level that can play a solid corner outfield and even a decent CF, if needed.  He'll never steal bases, but he's not a plodder either and should be good for 20+ HR's per season.  To me, this says at least a league average OF.  There is value in that.  This is just how I view his talents, yet those with more educated views may feel differently.

He's has a shoulder injury this season that set him back, but he should fully recover soon. 

So, while dealing Stowers makes a lot of sense, I hope Elias gives him time to rebuild his value at AAA before pulling the trigger.

Thoughts?

I'm still hopeful Stowers recovers and becomes a useful 4th OF for the Orioles and becomes known as a guy built for OPACY.

He's the sort of player who would have had a ton of value during Earl Weaver's tenure when a typical mix of the 25 was 16-9 position players/pitchers.  Now with 13-13 or 14-12 it is much more common that the pitching team gets the final say in dictating platoon matchups.  This has been mitigated somewhat by the 3-batter rule.

[btdart20]

I hope we can build around him for a top RP.  Maybe him and a MI depth type.

[sportsfan8703]

21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think teams know what he is And that a few good weeks in AAA isn’t really going to change his value.

I think he’s more valuable to us currently and next year. I see him taking over the spot vacated by Hicks. Hopefully, he finishes AAA strong this year, and has a good offseason/spring training. 

There’s a lot of value in optionable bats that have made it all the way to the show. You do need bench guys.  Then maybe they become starter level in their third year. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

I think he’s more valuable to us currently and next year. I see him taking over the spot vacated by Hicks. Hopefully, he finishes AAA strong this year, and has a good offseason/spring training. 

There’s a lot of value in optionable bats that have made it all the way to the show. You do need bench guys.  Then maybe they become starter level in their third year. 

He’s more valuable to a team that would give him everyday at bats and there are plenty of those out there.

He’s a starting caliber OFer right now.

[Aristotelian]

He is not better than Santander, Hays, Cowser, or Kjerstad. Probably worse than Hicks too. The bat may play but from what we've seen the defense is pretty bad. I don't see how he fits in this team short term or long term. I'm OK with him getting a shot on some other team.

[oriole]

He’s not going to get playing time in Baltimore, this year, next year or the next. There’s too much depth. That’s a good thing, but it also means that some guys gotta go. Stowers, whether it’s the right decision or not, is one that is not going to get an extended look so it’s better to use him as the depth we trade from even it’s not his potential max value. 

[banks703]

I don’t know that I would classify his defense as pretty bad. I mean, he’s a right fielder who was playing left field in a big Camden yards. He’s best suited for right. 

While I do think that he will have a decent major league career, I don’t see him as more than organizational depth with the O’s. All of Cowser, Kjerstad, EBJ, McKenna and the guys at the ML level are ahead of him. On the current ML roster I would even argue that they would play Frazier in the OF right now over Stowers. 
 

I can sympathize with the fear of selling low on a guy only to see him on to have success with another team (Christian Walker, Yaz, etc) but I don’t see a path to regular playing time at the Major League level for Kyle unless something drastically changes for him or the org. He’s an AAAA guy for them going forward who may get occasional run of injuries occur.

@Tony-OH posted really early in the year that the best thing that the Orioles can do with/for Kyle Stowers is to trade him and I tend to agree with that.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I think teams know what he is And that a few good weeks in AAA isn’t really going to change his value.

Agreed.  I think the only way his value changes much is if he gets back to the majors and performs well.  But I’m not sure how he gets that opportunity on the Orioles at this point.

[RZNJ]

Right.  He’s shown what he can do at AAA and looked ok last September.   Teams know that he’s got some upside but expectations aren’t super high on him.  He’s been passed by Cowser and Kjerstad.    I don’t see how he builds more value than he had but putting up more AAA numbers should still make him a potential #2 or #3 piece in a trade.

[Greg Pappas]

I also see no future in Baltimore, but just hope the value he has currently can be raised by performing very well at AAA again.  I guess the bottom line is that Elias knows what he has in Stowers and will proceed with him accordingly (hopefully a trade). A total guess here, but I'd put the odds of Stowers getting dealt at the deadline at 35% and before next season at 70%.  

[Matt Bennett]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think he’s more valuable to us currently and next year. I see him taking over the spot vacated by Hicks. Hopefully, he finishes AAA strong this year, and has a good offseason/spring training. 

There’s a lot of value in optionable bats that have made it all the way to the show. You do need bench guys.  Then maybe they become starter level in their third year. 

I tend to agree. I think Stowers fits nicely as a direct Hicks replacement in 2024. I'm not sure how people can say he has no path to at-bats when I've seen Hicks play most days for the month and a half he's been here. The 2024 AAA Norfolk outfield seems to be a group of Hudson Haskin, John Rhodes, Billy Cook, Shayne Fontana, Adam Hall, Ryan McKenna if he's still around. Not an inspiring group. Stowers is obviously my favorite among that group. Dylan Beavers and Jud Fabian are coming but they haven't had success in AA Bowie yet. I'm also kind of assuming Heston Kjerstad gets moved more towards 1B/DH. 

I generally think fans are quick to call pieces redundant and often think more in terms of the 9 man starting lineup than the 13 man active roster. We have 14 position players on the roster now. I'd let walk and/or trade for whatever pitching prospects you can get:

1. Aaron Hicks

2. Adam Frazier

3. Jorge Mateo

4. Ryan Mountcastle

5. Ryan O'Hearn

Stowers replaces Hicks. Ortiz replaces Frazier + Mateo. Kjerstad replaces O'Hearn + Mountcastle. Let Vavra or McKenna be the 13th man that starts once a month. 

Holliday and Mayo knocking on the door. Maybe Urias and Santander time with the O's comes to an end when those two are ready. 

C - Adley, McCann

IF - Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Urias

OF - Mullins, Hays, Cowser, Stowers

1B/DH/UTIL - Kjerstad, Santander, 13th man

I put all the players into a matrix and for every 14 games:

Henderson, Westburg, Mullins, Hays, Cowser, Santander, Kjerstad - plays 12 times

Ortiz, Urias - plays 10 times

Stowers plays 7 times. 

Everyone can play more with just one injury.  

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

If you can trade Stowers for a fitting return from a team that views him as a potential starting caliber OF, then you do it no doubt. If the market doesn’t view him as more than a bench/depth guy, then might as well keep him as a bench/depth guy here. He has 2 more option years after this year and both Santander/O’Hearn only have one more year of control (and both Santander/O’Hearn could be dealt before that too). 

He’s a trade chip but if nobody wants to pay full price, just keep him. He’s still well worth his 40-man spot here.

(I feel similarly towards Vavra as well, but like Stowers significantly more and feel Vavra is much more on the DFA line where we will need his 40-man spot. Prieto has surpassed him if both remain in the org.)

 

[Sanity Check]

What's interesting to me is that, in the minors section, there's a thread about our top prospects in the system, with Hangouters giving their lists of the top prospects.....and Stowers in absent on just about all of them, if not all of them.  Is he no longer a prospect, or is he that far down the line now where he's somewhat irrelevant.  If it's the latter, then I'm not sure what this means about the premise of this thread.