What are your expectations by the trade deadline?

[Too Tall]

Elias has said he's building a long term winner. Hence, I don't see him as a rental guy at this time nor do I think he should be. I think Greg hit it on the head. We need pitching and controllable pitching at best. Pitching that will enable us to navigate the rest of this year and into October. 

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[emmett16]

I imagine he brings in 1 or 2 more guys we’ve barely heard of for lower level prospects.  These guys trust their evaluating and development system.  I’ve kinda given up on guessing what they are gonna do.  It always seems to be a surprise.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Too Tall said:

Elias has said he's building a long term winner. Hence, I don't see him as a rental guy at this time nor do I think he should be. I think Greg hit it on the head. We need pitching and controllable pitching at best. Pitching that will enable us to navigate the rest of this year and into October. 

 

You can trade deep depth for a rental guy without sacrificing being a long term winner.

[banks703]

14 minutes ago, Fan4Life said:

Does anyone believe GM's use propaganda to affect cost of targets? If so, probably not looking for a bat comment by Elias isn't reliable. 

They're always posturing. I don't believe for a second that if they were approached by another club to swing a deal for a hitter that could improve the club for a playoff run and the deal didn't require them to move someone from their core of young players, that he wouldn't do it. It's why they always talk up their players, etc. etc. GM Speak/Propaganda can never be trusted, even when coming from honest Mike. They never want surrender leverage to a competitor. 

 

 

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I have to confess that I do not/refuse to watch Oakland A’s baseball. I don’t like spending my time watching bad baseball to be honest. So I haven’t watched Fujinama pitch.

But he is the type of pitcher who seems FAR from a certainty in terms of guys that you trust in the post season. Right now IMO we have 2 and 3/4 (not all the way trusting of Coulombe) of relievers that you would trust in the postseason. We are going to need more than that in order to make a serious run to the World Series. Why go into the postseason with an opportunity this good and it address the team’s biggest weakness? Bullpen bell is probably the least expensive way to improve the team.

Just because a guy isn't a name you recognize doesn't mean he can't be "trusted".  Names cost more money and/or prospects. The smart teams identify the next big names (as opposed to the current big names) and trade for them. So if Elias and his team think Fujinama can produce as well as a more established / well know RP then I'm perfectly fine with the move. In fact, I'd prefer that they operate that way, especially with RPs who can be pretty volatile in terms of their value from one season to the next. 

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

Elias has said he's building a long term winner. Hence, I don't see him as a rental guy at this time nor do I think he should be. I think Greg hit it on the head. We need pitching and controllable pitching at best. Pitching that will enable us to navigate the rest of this year and into October. 

 

Isn't that just what Elias did?  Traded 6 years of Easton Lucas for 2 or 3 months of Fuji.

Edited July 20, 2023 by wildcard

[HakunaSakata]

I think they'll add a SP and "maybe" another bullpen arm. The SP won't be someone most of you like because you've made up your mind that the need to go all in and trade 1/2 their farm system for a top 10 pitcher. I'm also happy that most of you aren't on the Orioles' payroll and in a decision making position. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Isn't that just what Elias did?  Traded 6 years of Easton for 2 or 3 months of Fuji.

Realistically what are the odds of Easton having a six year career in the majors?  2%?

[HakunaSakata]

14 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

Elias has said he's building a long term winner. Hence, I don't see him as a rental guy at this time nor do I think he should be. I think Greg hit it on the head. We need pitching and controllable pitching at best. Pitching that will enable us to navigate the rest of this year and into October. 

 

When's the last team you saw a good controllable young pitcher traded in July or August? I think that's something that would be much more likely to be addressed during the offseason via trade of free agency signing. 

[oriolediehard]

One rental imo would really help the O's to get to the World Series would be Josh Hader. He would really solidify our bullpen.  What do you all think? 

[RZNJ]

You can emphasize the long term of the team and acquire rentals.   We just did it.   The cost of a rental requiring long term pieces is less than getting someone with multiple years of service time.   Elias has shown he likes to give up as little as possible, like I’m sure everyone else.    I suspect you might see a Prieto, Rhodes, Armbruester, type go back in a trade but I’d be surprised by a top 8 guy or one of the higher profile pitchers like Povich, McDermott, Hall, or Johnson.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

One rental imo would really help the O's to get to the World Series would be Josh Hader. He would really solidify our bullpen.  What do you all think? 

He would help.  I doubt we pay the price.  Probably someone a level down from Hader much more under the radar.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Realistically what are the odds of Easton having a six year career in the majors?  2%?

Sounds like a question for Draft Kings.

He is left-handed and breathing.   Plus he is going to Oakland who gives a lot of marginal players chances. He may follow in the foot steps of Herniaz.

[HakunaSakata]

1 minute ago, oriolediehard said:

One rental imo would really help the O's to get to the World Series would be Josh Hader. He would really solidify our bullpen.  What do you all think? 

Why would the Orioles trade for a closer (who would be much more expense than a regular RP) when we already have Bautista? There are plenty of non-closer RPs who are just as good as Hader who can probably be had for a fraction of the cost. 

[btdart20]

Expectations result in quirky outcomes in the human psyche...  Just like recency bias.  Expectations is also a difficult concept to grasp and keep on topic too.

@Greg Pappas, I agree with how you framed your expected returns based on the type of player Elias might be willing to give up in a deal.  I think that is the governor for the ceiling of return.  I don't expect Elias to trade controllable, low-cost players to bump one year's playoff run odds.  Others seem to expect that.

My expectation is that he'll trade "pieces" and depth while maximizing org value. 

"Pieces" - Mateo/Urias/Frazier/Mountcastle are top of the deck/depth options.  I have to think Urias at least has market value.  Mountcastle probably has some street cred still too.  I'm less confident with the return for Mateo/Frazier but they both have marketable skills.  I could see a non-Bradish rotation SP traded away included if we get an upgrade (but still somewhat controllable) SP in return. 

Prospects - I don't want Ortiz to be traded, but I think he has the highest valued prospect Elias will be willing to trade.  The prospect list would include Ortiz, Wagner, Norby, Willems, Prieto, and Hall (and any number of guys lower probably more selective for SPs though).  All of these prospects named are top 100 prospect types at some point in their product curve (obviously they are at different points in said curve).  There are a few OF prospect options, but Fabian is probably more highly valued by the O's than other teams.

Rule 5 - I also expect Elias to continue positioning the org to maximize player value.  So, I wouldn't be shocked if he either pushed out or pulls up the timeline for the Rule 5 process based on who he trades away/for.

 

I expect this to put us in a good spot to get:

A plus RP

A solid RP

An upgrade in the rotation - this is something less than an "expectation" for me, but I see the need and a potential path for it without giving up big dogs.

 

I expect Elias to NOT trade MLB offensive contributors like Santander, Hays, Mullins, or (shockingly) O'Hearn (and obviously guys like Gunnar and Adley).  Not that they are untouchable, but that value of the return won't improve the current value of those guys.  There's certainly a path (like trading Santander for an SP upgrade), but I just don't expect that to happen.