One key to Orioles success

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't "attack posters" I "attack" posts.

 

 

You have this on a bumper sticker on your car don’t you?

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

But that either has to show up in the stats or the stats are missing something.  I don't see why that is so hard to understand.  We have a very average bullpen as Frobby pointed out earlier. Our pitching is close to league average.  Our OPS is nothing special.  

 

 

The WPA for the back of the pen is huge.

This team built their early record on the backs of Felix and Cano.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You have this on a bumper sticker on your car don’t you?

I think it's almost egotistical for folks to think I pick out posts by individual posters to react to.

I don't care who makes the post.  (Unless maybe it's someone that is clearly circumventing a ban)

[jabba72]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

But what about the sac flies?  Roy is in shambles!

Also you get an RBI for a bases loaded HBP.

There should be a stat for Gritty RBI. A bases loaded HBP would qualify. So would two strike, two out hits. 

[Baltimorecuse]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I wasn't calling you a literal Luddite, I was using it in the modern sense.

The modern sense is wrong.  The Luddites to me are sympathetic characters.  But, yeah, I knew what you meant.  No, Iove technology.  Bio-technology saved my wife's life from stage 4-c cancer.  The doctors can hardly believe it.  

[Baltimorecuse]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The WPA for the back of the pen is huge.

This team built their early record on the backs of Felix and Cano.

I can't argue WPA.  You win.  Well I could argue WPA but I won't.  It's so subjective it's impossible to argue.  

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Baltimorecuse said:

Yawn!

You didn't even begin to refute what I said.  This isn't about math.  It's about failed statistical models.  Show my any stat that justifies our record, any.  

 

I don’t agree.  The statistical model of a Pythagorean record absolutely expects that some teams will exceed it.  Just like we know that if you did a series of 100 flips of a coin 100 times, they wouldn’t all come up at 50 heads and 50 tails.  Most would be in that vicinity, very few would be exactly that, and there wouid be several outliers.  That’s how probability works.  Let’s just be glad the Orioles are one of the outliers.  And, there are some reasons they are.  

[Baltimorecuse]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t agree.  The statistical model of a Pythagorean record absolutely expects that some teams will exceed it.  Just like we know that if you did a series of 100 flips of a coin 100 times, they wouldn’t all come up at 50 heads and 50 tails.  Most would be in that vicinity, very few would be exactly that, and there wouid be several outliers.  That’s how probability works.  Let’s just be glad the Orioles are one of the outliers.  And, there are some reasons they are.  

What do you think the reasons are?  Of course there are reasons.  I wasn't trolling when I asked what are the reasons.  Part of it is the fallacy of averages.  If a half dozen of us was having a beer then we could if we wished determine an average net worth.  If Bill Gates joins us that will skewer the average PDQ.  

We were outscored by Seattle but we won 2 out of 3 games.  I think that's the key.  Each nine innings is essentially a new toss of the coin.  Moreover, because the game is played in nine inning segments, every night you're a different team.  

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Baltimorecuse said:

What do you think the reasons are?  Of course there are reasons.  I wasn't trolling when I asked what are the reasons.  Part of it is the fallacy of averages.  If a half dozen of us was having a beer then we could if we wished determine an average net worth.  If Bill Gates joins us that will skewer the average PDQ.  

We were outscored by Seattle but we won 2 out of 3 games.  I think that's the key.  Each nine innings is essentially a new toss of the coin.  Moreover, because the game is played in nine inning segments, every night you're a different team.  

 

I posted a link to a Fangraphs piece yesterday.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I posted a link to a Fangraphs piece yesterday.

Here it is, for anyone who doesn’t read the MLB forum. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/those-goshdarn-marlins-and-or-orioles-are-at-it-again/
 

[Baltimorecuse]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I posted a link to a Fangraphs piece yesterday.

Interesting article.  Didn't I say something about 1 run games just recently.  

The first place to look is a lopsided record in one-run games; indeed, this year’s Orioles, Marlins, and Brewers all have better records in one-run games than they do overall. 

I've got to think  about WPA.  If it's been back tested and it's predictive, it's very interesting.  

[George Zuverink]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think it's almost egotistical for folks to think I pick out posts by individual posters to react to.

I don't care who makes the post.  (Unless maybe it's someone that is clearly circumventing a ban)

True. You are an equal opportunity, smartest guy in the room abuser.