6-6 will force tampa to go 9-2 to take the division

[Moshagge3]

19 minutes ago, gshepherd7 said:

I want the Blue Jays in!  We own them this year.  Texas, Seattle, and Houston are all tougher I believe.  Any matchup is going to be a challenge.  They just need to keep doing what they've been doing all season.  Attention to detail, aggressive and doing the small things well. 

I have just a bad feeling about seeing them again based on last year's Braves (beat Phillies by 14 games in the standings, 11-8 against them head to head, lost to them in the Division Series) and Dodgers (beat Padres by 22 games in the standings, 14-5 against them head to head, lost to them in the Division Series).

[dystopia]

12 minutes ago, Moshagge3 said:

I have just a bad feeling about seeing them again based on last year's Braves (beat Phillies by 14 games in the standings, 11-8 against them head to head, lost to them in the Division Series) and Dodgers (beat Padres by 22 games in the standings, 14-5 against them head to head, lost to them in the Division Series).

Toronto would scare me if they finished the season hot. Any team that gets hot is a major threat. 

[oriolediehard]

4 hours ago, Moshagge3 said:

I hate that we're going to have to root for the Blue Jays so much down the stretch. I would really rather they missed the playoffs and the West got three teams in.

We are 10-3 against the Jays, are record against the West isn't that good.

[Moshagge3]

36 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Toronto would scare me if they finished the season hot. Any team that gets hot is a major threat. 

Emotionally, losing in the playoffs to Toronto would be worse than losing to Texas or Seattle.

[LookinUp]

4 hours ago, dystopia said:

But don’t dare accuse them of bias lest you want the wrath of the nerd brigade to jump down your throat. 

Not biased, just nerds who aren't very good at what they're doing, as far as I can tell.

Tampa's run differential since May 1 is +93. The Orioles is +98 by my quick count. The O's advantage is much larger if you look at post all star break. There's a million ways to look at these statistics. They seem to pick one and stick with it while ignoring all of context.

As someone who's been involved in a research paper or 50, I can tell you that the art is in controlling for all of that context. The problem is the cutoffs are often arbitrary. One year's cutoff might be much more relevant than another year's. That's especially true in sports where injuries and fatigue might have an outsized effect on probabilities.

Luckily, they play the games on the field and our O's are hopefully a week away from winning the division and league regular season title.

[SilentJames]

I'm not scared of any team, I also am not taking any team for granted. In the postseason anything can happen and all the previous records get thrown out the window. The Orioles have consistently been in every series they have played in this year and there is no sign of that changing. 

We are in control of the division, win that. In the playoffs a grounder with eyes can clinch a trophy just have to let the chips fall. 

[spleen1015]

2 minutes ago, SilentJames said:

I'm not scared of any team, I also am not taking any team for granted. In the postseason anything can happen and all the previous records get thrown out the window. The Orioles have consistently been in every series they have played in this year and there is no sign of that changing. 

We are in control of the division, win that. In the playoffs a grounder with eyes can clinch a trophy just have to let the chips fall. 

This. What happened before doesn't matter once you get to the playoffs. What happens today is all that matters. It is tough to win championships.

[NCRaven]

If you're only going to go by standings, then just look at standings.  No need to look at any power polls.  Their metrics say that other teams have better players despite their records.  But, I think that their metrics are slow to correct as the season goes on.  They had us at 100% in the playoffs before we clinched and have us at nearly 90 percent to win the division.  That's why the odds of making the wildcard are so low.  In a recent chat, Ben Clemens said that their system hates the Orioles - in a joking sort of way.

My one worry is that our bullpen is not pitching well at all right now.  That could be a huge problem come playoff time.  And, other teams have higher regarded first three starters, although I think our first three of Bradish, Rodriguez and Kremer are pretty damned good, just not as experienced.  I think the lack of quality history for our pitching staff and the slow recognition of what they are doing recently is the biggest reason that their programs undervalue the Orioles.

[dystopia]

1 hour ago, spleen1015 said:

That's the way brackets work. 1 plays 4 and 2 plays 3. So, your 1st round match up where you have 3, 4, 5, 6, the 3 seeds gets the easiest road, so they play the 6. Winner plays 2 since we're assuming 3 wins.

The issue here is the 2nd best team, the true 2 seed, is in the same division as the 1.

They should just re-seed after the WC round. 

[scarey1999]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Here’s what irks me right now.  They do a power ranking every week where they put the teams in tiers.  As of Monday, the O’s are in Tier 3.  Tier 3!  Are you frigging kidding me?   Give me a break!  The team has played one of the toughest schedules of any team, has the second best record in the sport, just won the season series with Tampa rather handily, and they’re in Tier effing 3?   Meanwhile, Tampa (5-8 against the Orioles and 2 games behind when the list was done) are in Tier 1, and Toronto (3-10 against the O’s and 10.5 games behind) are in Tier 2.  That’s inexcusable.  
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-september-11-17/

Glad I’m not the only one laughing at this weekly comedy skit.  He even has the Jays with a higher “Team Quality” score (whatever exactly that means) than the Braves.  I’m guessing these rankings disappear or are vastly revised in 2024. 

[bluedog]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Here’s what irks me right now.  They do a power ranking every week where they put the teams in tiers.  As of Monday, the O’s are in Tier 3.  Tier 3!  Are you frigging kidding me?   Give me a break!  The team has played one of the toughest schedules of any team, has the second best record in the sport, just won the season series with Tampa rather handily, and they’re in Tier effing 3?   Meanwhile, Tampa (5-8 against the Orioles and 2 games behind when the list was done) are in Tier 1, and Toronto (3-10 against the O’s and 10.5 games behind) are in Tier 2.  That’s inexcusable.  
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-september-11-17/

The writers at Fangraphs are Tier 3

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

The format makes no sense. Why not have the 5th and 6th seeds (last two WCs) play each other, then have the 1 seed face the winner? Then have the 2 seed face the winner of the 3/4 series. 

That would be pretty unfair to the #3 division winner, to give them the top wild card, while the #2 wild card gets the "easiest" opponent in the postseason.   

[TonySoprano]

6 hours ago, tntoriole said:

7-5 and they must go 10-1 , 8-4 and they must go 11-0 .. 9-3 and we win even if they go 11-0 

 

And they have 6 out of 11 with Toronto who is of course fighting for a playoff spot including 3 in Toronto 

TB has a slim 4-3 lead in their season series so far.  Hopefully, TOR can at least split their 6 vs TB.   Boston is jockeying with NYY to avoid last place, so they won't be laying down.   I hope no one from Boston remembers what we did to their playoffs in 2011.