My 2023 second half and full regular season report card

[Frobby]

With the playoffs looming, its time for me to give my second half and final grades for the regular season.   As always, all grades are on a curve, factoring in my expectations for the player going into the season.   I’ll do the position players in one post, the pitchers in a second one later.  For the hitters, I’m using a 100 PA minimum.   The first half stats and grades are shown here; my first-half writeups can be found here if anyone wants to look back.  Beware, I'm a pretty strict grader when my expecations for a player are high.

Adley Rutschman – First Half: .268/.375/.417, 11 HR, 35 RBI, 2.0 rWAR, 1.9 fWAR: C+. Second Half: .287/.373/.454, 9 HR, 45 RBI, 2.3 rWAR, 3.1 fWAR: B.  Overall grade: B-.  Adley’s strong September and better defense led to a better second half grade.  His overall grade of B- denotes that he fell somewhat short of my expectations for him for 2023, though he was still one of the best catchers in the league.  Next year, my expectations will be a little lower going in than they were this year.

James McCann – First Half: .194/.232/.344, 3 HR, 7 RBI, -0.2 rWAR, -0.1 fWAR: D.  Second Half: .246/.298/.404, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 0.8 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR: B+.  Overall grade: B-.  McCann hit much better in the second half, and continued to play strong defense.  He turned out to be a big upgrade over Chirinos, and that allowed Brandon Hyde to be more judicious using Adley at catcher.  He was a big factor in the team’s success.

Ryan Mountcastle – First Half: .227/.264/.421, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 0.2 rWAR, -0.2 fWAR: D-. Second Half: .326/.407/.492, 7 HR29 RBI, 1.9 rWAR, 1.8 fWAR: A.  Overall grade: B-.   Mountcastle had a great second half after returning from the IL, only to land back on it for a good chunk of September.  His 117 OPS+ was a career high over a full season.  Still, when looking at the whole year he basically met expectations, rather than exceeding them.

Ryan O’Hearn – First Half: .289/.333/.509, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 0.4 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR: A-.  Second Half: .289/.316/.466, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 0.8 rWAR. 0.9 fWAR: A.   Overall grade: A.  O’Hearn’s OBP and SLG were down a little in the second half, but he played better defense and hit incredibly well in the clutch.  He wildly exceeded my expectations in both halves of the season, but especially in the second half.

Adam Frazier – First Half: .226/.298/.387, 9 HR, 35 RBI, 1.0 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR: C+.  Second Half: .262/.303/.409, 4 HR, 25 RBI, 0.7 rWAR, 0.2 fWAR: C+.  Overall grade: C+.  Frazier was basically the same player all year, but he played less in the second half once Jordan Westburg arrived.   He had a lot of timely hits and some timely defensive plays too, even though his defensive number weren’t good.  My expectations for Frazier were modest, and he basically met them.

Gunnar Henderson -- First Half: .241/.338/.457, 11 HR, 30 RBI, 1.9 rWAR, 1.6 fWAR: B.  Second Half: .265/.315/.512, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 4.4 rWAR, 3.2 fWAR: A.   Overall grade: A-.  Gunnar came on like a house on fire as the season progressed.  He was too passive at the start of the year and played better once he got more aggressive at the plate.  Next year though, I’d like to see his OBP edging back up.  Defensively he did a great job toggling between SS and 3B.

Ramon Urias – First Half: .256/.328/.378, 3 HR, 24 RBI, 1.1 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR: B-.  Second Half: .272/.328/.372, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 0.5 rWAR, 0.2 fWAR: C.  Overall grade: C+.  Like Frazier, Urias saw his playing time cut back a bit once Westburg arrived; otherwise, he was pretty much the same guy offensively in both halves.  I downgraded him from B- to C in the second half mainly because his defense unexpectedly faltered in September. 

Jorge Mateo – First Half: .220/.267/.350, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 22 SB, 3 CS, 1.0 rWAR, 0.8 fWAR: C-.  Second Half: .212/.268/.317, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 10 SB, 2 CS, -0.1 rWAR, -0.3 fWAR: D.  Overall grade: D.   Mateo played himself out of a starting job in the first half, and nearly played himself off the roster when his defense faltered badly in July.  He still has value as a pinch runner for the postseason but he was awful offensively and disappointing defensively considering how good he was on defense last year.

Austin Hays – First Half: .313/.353/.493, 8 HR, 34 RBI, 2.1 rWAR, 1.9 fWAR: A-.  Second Half: .231/.293/.388, 8 HR, 33 RBI, 0.5 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR: C-.  Overall grade: B-.   Hays had a 6-week slump to begin the second half, had a great second half of August, then cooled off again towards the end.  He had a very solid season overall but was much better in the first half than the second.

Cedric Mullins – First Half: .252/.347/.445, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 13 SB, 3 CS, 1.5 rWAR, 1.6 fWAR: B+.  Second Half: .210/.254/.382, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 6 SB, O CS, 1.3 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR: C-.  Overall grade: B-.  The second half was interesting for Cedric.  Overall, his numbers were bad, but he had several amazing moments and clutch performances.  Still, a .254 OBP is just terrible.   On the season, he had a very poor .266 OBP when leading off an inning, yet was terrific (1.025 OPS) with runners in scoring position.  That explains why you didn’t see Cedric returning to the leadoff spot when he returned from his leg injury.   He probably would have a better slash line if his season hadn't been disrupted by injuries twice, just when he was heating up both times.  

Anthony Santander – First Half: .264/.324/.478, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 1.3 rWAR, 1.1 fWAR: B+; .250/.325/.486, 14 HR, 43 RBI, 1.7 rWAR, 1.5 fWAR:  A-. Overall grade: A-.  Offensively, Santander had a very steady year.   Defensively, he was significantly better in 2023 than in 2022.  He was more patient working the count and had many great, long at bats, though he walked 55 times both in 2022 and 2023. 

Aaron Hicks – First Half: .260/.380/.481, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 0.6 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR: A.  Second Half: .285/.382/.390, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 0.4 rWAR, 0.8 fWAR: B+.  Overall grade: A-.   Just as in the first half, Hicks played much better for the Orioles than he’d played over the last 3-4 years with the Yankees.  He didn’t hit for much power in the second half, but he gave us quality at bats every time and was on base a ton.

Ryan McKenna – First Half: .253/.315/.392, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 0.2 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR: C+.  Second Half: .256/.319/.302, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 0.2 rWAR, 0.2 fWAR: C+.  Overall grade: C+.    McKenna was more or less the same player in both halves, with a little less power in the second half.  He got sent to the minors twice in the second half, a sure indication that he’s not exactly irreplaceable.  But he met my middling expectations.

Jordan Westburg – Full Season: .260/.311/.404, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 1.2 rWAR.1.1 fWAR.  Overall grade: B.   Westburg joined the O’s five games before the second half began, so I just gave him one grade for the whole season.   Offensively, I thought we’d see a little more power, and still think we’ll see that next year.  Defensively, Westburg was very solid.  He certainly met my expectations for his rookie year, and maybe exceeded them by a bit.  It’s a good foundation to build on.

So what do you think?  Was I too hard on some of these guys?   Spolier alert: you'll be seeing some good grades when I get to the pitchers.

[OnlyOneOriole]

I would agree with most of that.  Maybe a little high on AS but otherwise fair.

[survivedc]

Quick note—Mullins had 1.3fWAR in the second half. I was blown away by a 1 win gulf between the two versions and had to check.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, survivedc said:

Quick note—Mullins had 1.3fWAR in the second half. I was blown away by a 1 win gulf between the two versions and had to check.

No.  He had a total of 1.8 fWAR for the entire year.  He was at 1.6 in the first half.  That’s 0.2 in the second half.  You must not be reading the correct line on Fangraphs.  I actually gave him too much credit.  I said 0.3, it was really 0.2.  

[dystopia]

Frazier’s grade was generous. He underperformed overall this year. 
 

I know you said you’ll do pitching in another post but let’s face it, Bradish and G-Rod get A+’s for the 2nd half easy. Kremer a B+, and Gibson a C. Flaherty and his 7 ERA gets an F. 

[survivedc]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

No.  He had a total of 1.8 fWAR for the entire year.  He was at 1.6 in the first half.  That’s 0.2 in the second half.  You must not be reading the correct line on Fangraphs.  I actually gave him too much credit.  I said 0.3, it was really 0.2.  

Absolutely was not reading the right line.

Ok, back to my original thought—that’s a crazy difference between the two!

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, survivedc said:

Absolutely was not reading the right line.

Ok, back to my original thought—that’s a crazy difference between the two!

I have a hard time understanding BB-ref’s 1.3 in the second half, when he posted a .636 OPS and missed a chunk of games.  

[Gurgi]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

With the playoffs looming, its time for me to give my second half and final grades for the regular season.   As always, all grades are on a curve, factoring in my expectations for the player going into the season.   I’ll do the position players in one post, the pitchers in a second one later.  For the hitters, I’m using a 100 PA minimum.   The first half stats and grades are shown here; my first-half writeups can be found here if anyone wants to look back.  Beware, I'm a pretty strict grader when my expecations for a player are high.

Adley Rutschman – First Half: .268/.375/.417, 11 HR, 35 RBI, 2.0 rWAR, 1.9 fWAR: C+. Second Half: .287/.373/.454, 9 HR, 45 RBI, 2.3 rWAR, 3.1 fWAR: B.  Overall grade: B-.  Adley’s strong September and better defense led to a better second half grade.  His overall grade of B- denotes that he fell somewhat short of my expectations for him for 2023, though he was still one of the best catchers in the league.  Next year, my expectations will be a little lower going in than they were this year.

James McCann – First Half: .194/.232/.344, 3 HR, 7 RBI, -0.2 rWAR, -0.1 fWAR: D.  Second Half: .246/.298/.404, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 0.8 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR: B+.  Overall grade: B-.  McCann hit much better in the second half, and continued to play strong defense.  He turned out to be a big upgrade over Chirinos, and that allowed Brandon Hyde to be more judicious using Adley at catcher.  He was a big factor in the team’s success.

Ryan Mountcastle – First Half: .227/.264/.421, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 0.2 rWAR, -0.2 fWAR: D-. Second Half: .326/.407/.492, 7 HR29 RBI, 1.9 rWAR, 1.8 fWAR: A.  Overall grade: B-.   Mountcastle had a great second half after returning from the IL, only to land back on it for a good chunk of September.  His 117 OPS+ was a career high over a full season.  Still, when looking at the whole year he basically met expectations, rather than exceeding them.

Ryan O’Hearn – First Half: .289/.333/.509, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 0.4 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR: A-.  Second Half: .289/.316/.466, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 0.8 rWAR. 0.9 fWAR: A.   Overall grade: A.  O’Hearn’s OBP and SLG were down a little in the second half, but he played better defense and hit incredibly well in the clutch.  He wildly exceeded my expectations in both halves of the season, but especially in the second half.

Adam Frazier – First Half: .226/.298/.387, 9 HR, 35 RBI, 1.0 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR: C+.  Second Half: .262/.303/.409, 4 HR, 25 RBI, 0.7 rWAR, 0.2 fWAR: C+.  Overall grade: C+.  Frazier was basically the same player all year, but he played less in the second half once Jordan Westburg arrived.   He had a lot of timely hits and some timely defensive plays too, even though his defensive number weren’t good.  My expectations for Frazier were modest, and he basically met them.

Gunnar Henderson -- First Half: .241/.338/.457, 11 HR, 30 RBI, 1.9 rWAR, 1.6 fWAR: B.  Second Half: .265/.315/.512, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 4.4 rWAR, 3.2 fWAR: A.   Overall grade: A-.  Gunnar came on like a house on fire as the season progressed.  He was too passive at the start of the year and played better once he got more aggressive at the plate.  Next year though, I’d like to see his OBP edging back up.  Defensively he did a great job toggling between SS and 3B.

Ramon Urias – First Half: .256/.328/.378, 3 HR, 24 RBI, 1.1 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR: B-.  Second Half: .272/.328/.372, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 0.5 rWAR, 0.2 fWAR: C.  Overall grade: C+.  Like Frazier, Urias saw his playing time cut back a bit once Westburg arrived; otherwise, he was pretty much the same guy offensively in both halves.  I downgraded him from B- to C in the second half mainly because his defense unexpectedly faltered in September. 

Jorge Mateo – First Half: .220/.267/.350, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 22 SB, 3 CS, 1.0 rWAR, 0.8 fWAR: C-.  Second Half: .212/.268/.317, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 10 SB, 2 CS, -0.1 rWAR, -0.3 fWAR: D.  Overall grade: D.   Mateo played himself out of a starting job in the first half, and nearly played himself off the roster when his defense faltered badly in July.  He still has value as a pinch runner for the postseason but he was awful offensively and disappointing defensively considering how good he was on defense last year.

Austin Hays – First Half: .313/.353/.493, 8 HR, 34 RBI, 2.1 rWAR, 1.9 fWAR: A-.  Second Half: .231/.293/.388, 8 HR, 33 RBI, 0.5 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR: C-.  Overall grade: B-.   Hays had a 6-week slump to begin the second half, had a great second half of August, then cooled off again towards the end.  He had a very solid season overall but was much better in the first half than the second.

Cedric Mullins – First Half: .252/.347/.445, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 13 SB, 3 CS, 1.5 rWAR, 1.6 fWAR: B+.  Second Half: .210/.254/.382, 7 HR, 34 RBI, 6 SB, O CS, 1.3 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR: C-.  Overall grade: B-.  The second half was interesting for Cedric.  Overall, his numbers were bad, but he had several amazing moments and clutch performances.  Still, a .254 OBP is just terrible.   On the season, he had a very poor .266 OBP when leading off an inning, yet was terrific (1.025 OPS) with runners in scoring position.  That explains why you didn’t see Cedric returning to the leadoff spot when he returned from his leg injury.   He probably would have a better slash line if his season hadn't been disrupted by injuries twice, just when he was heating up both times.  

Anthony Santander – First Half: .264/.324/.478, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 1.3 rWAR, 1.1 fWAR: B+; .250/.325/.486, 14 HR, 43 RBI, 1.7 rWAR, 1.5 fWAR:  A-. Overall grade: A-.  Offensively, Santander had a very steady year.   Defensively, he was significantly better in 2023 than in 2022.  He was more patient working the count and had many great, long at bats, though he walked 55 times both in 2022 and 2023. 

Aaron Hicks – First Half: .260/.380/.481, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 0.6 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR: A.  Second Half: .285/.382/.390, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 0.4 rWAR, 0.8 fWAR: B+.  Overall grade: A-.   Just as in the first half, Hicks played much better for the Orioles than he’d played over the last 3-4 years with the Yankees.  He didn’t hit for much power in the second half, but he gave us quality at bats every time and was on base a ton.

Ryan McKenna – First Half: .253/.315/.392, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 0.2 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR: C+.  Second Half: .256/.319/.302, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 0.2 rWAR, 0.2 fWAR: C+.  Overall grade: C+.    McKenna was more or less the same player in both halves, with a little less power in the second half.  He got sent to the minors twice in the second half, a sure indication that he’s not exactly irreplaceable.  But he met my middling expectations.

Jordan Westburg – Full Season: .260/.311/.404, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 1.2 rWAR.1.1 fWAR.  Overall grade: B.   Westburg joined the O’s five games before the second half began, so I just gave him one grade for the whole season.   Offensively, I thought we’d see a little more power, and still think we’ll see that next year.  Defensively, Westburg was very solid.  He certainly met my expectations for his rookie year, and maybe exceeded them by a bit.  It’s a good foundation to build on.

So what do you think?  Was I too hard on some of these guys?   Spolier alert: you'll be seeing some good grades when I get to the pitchers.

Everything seems pretty spot on.  Nothing stands out as a big miss.  

[Roy Firestone]

O'Hearn going 1-30 or something close to that.. is a concern for me...also I'm told he's favoring his sore shoulder right now , another concern for the post season.Before that, he may have been our most clutch hitters.

[The B&G]

Will be interesting to see how Mullins plays next season. Hoping his down performance was mostly due to the injury. Made a post about it a few weeks ago, but from the eye test, it's pretty clear he's not running at his top speed. 

[Jagwar]

Thanks for a great detailed report @Frobby.

I'm not sure I understand how the stats for Rutschman and McCann warrant identical B- grades. Sure... Adley missed high expectations and McCann was better than last year's backups, but for me their "test scores" would not each receive the same grade. 

[wildcard]

Adley -  Had pretty much the same results as last year while playing 39 more games which are simply outstanding for a catcher. Handled the pitching staff as a leader, controlled the running game and hit well - 810 OPS. But his offense was very different this year.   In 2002 he hit righties - 889 OPS vs lefties - 552 OPS.  In 2023 he flipped that righties -778 OPS vs lefties  - 895 OPS.   He hits much better as a DH (874 OPS) vs C (786 OPS).  He is an on base machine 374 OBP.   He leads the team and the winning culture with his attitude and hugs. Grade A

McCann - Agree

Mountcastle - In an injury plagued year that cost him 132 at bats his biggest improvement was to his OBP at 328 compared to 309 in 2021 and 305 in 2022.   He seemed to adjust to the wall that has cost him power by hitting more up the middle.  While sharing 1B with O'Hearn instead of Mancini and DH with Adley he killed lefties with a 1052 OPS but fell off vs righties with a 640 OPS.  He seem like a platoon player at times.    He hit better as a DH (900 OPS) vs 1B (754). None of this is consistent on a year over year basis.  Some years he hits rights better, some years lefties, some years better as a 1B and some as a DH.    Grade  C+ while noting his improved OBP which is major IMO.

O'Hearn - Agree

Frazier - Agree

Gunnar -  He has come so far so fast.  Deserves MVO.  Took over SS.  Much better SS than 3B at this point IMO.   Offensive weapon.  Grade A+

Urias -  Fell off in power from 16 HR to 4 HR and drop in  defense may have cost him his spot on the roster.  Grade D+

Mateo - Began the season as a potential starting SS but became a Backup SS.  As a utility player his speed on the base path and ability to steal (32 steals) is a weapon.    A game changer in close games which the O's play a lot.   Defense at SS dropped from elite to be roughly compared to Gunnar which is still a very high level.  Can't hit.  Grade as a utility player is a B-.

Hays -  Has become a first half player over the last two years.  All-Star first half followed by a beat up body that costs him offensively in the 2nd half.  He plays hard.  Defensive standout in spite of losing speed as the year goes on due to injuries he plays through.  Wall has cost him some power but like Mountcastle the improved OBP to 325 is a impressive.  Agree with B- grade.

Mullins - Agree.  Injuries cost him greatly.  Amazing he can play defense at such a high level even with the injuries. Grade C+ but an All Star when healthy.

Santander - Agree

Hicks - Wow.  Where did that come from.  Showed up at just the right time with Mullins injury and was a solid performer.   Unexpected.   Not the best backup centerfielder because his speed is average but can catch what he gets to.  Fine in the corners. Grade B-

McKenna  - Agree

Westburg -  Better than expected at 2B.  Rangy.  Solid.  Not as good at 3B.  SS only in emergencies.   Nice break into the majors.  Future looks bright.  Grade B looks good.

Edited October 4, 2023 by wildcard

[BRobinsonfan]

I agree with most everything... except I would give Adley an A-.  He led, or was among the leaders, in most offensive categories for catchers.  

[Morgan423]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

I have a hard time understanding BB-ref’s 1.3 in the second half, when he posted a .636 OPS and missed a chunk of games.  

Do they include some kind of "clutchiness" factor?  When players hugely sway expected in-game win percentage?  Like when he single handedly won that game in Seattle in August?  That could account for it if so.

[btdart20]

Only quibble is that I'd go lower on Mullins based on my higher expectations (even while acknowledging his special moments offensively and defensively).