Some potential moves for this offseason

[wildcard]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If he leaves, so be it. Doing something stupid because you are worried about this is an awful way to do business.

He’a a good pitcher but acting as if he’s irreplaceable is just foolish.

Means is one of the three best starter the O's have.  Offering him a 3 year deal with a lower base and high incentive for # of starts in not that risky.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Means is one of the three best starter the O's have.  Offering him a 3 year deal with a lower base and high incentive for # of starts in not that risky.

1) why would he sign that type of deal? That makes zero sense from his perspective(and please spare me the WS crap..that’s not an actual reason since that opportunity is there with lots of teams)

2) Just because he’s one of the 3 best starters today (and that’s debatable as we don’t know how he will come back from the injury), doesn’t mean he will be next year or for years after that. I would hope you understand that.

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, wildcard said:

 

The 2025 team has two key pitchers on the team ready to play big roles.   Bautista and 1st rounder Seth Johnson.  Johnson is probably as important to the O's future as GRod and Hall.  All three are first rounders.  Johnson is probably projected as the 5th starter 

To me, Johnson has proven virtually nothing.  He’s thrown 34.1 innings above low A, and has a grand total of 148 innings in the minors, the vast majority of which was in 2021 in low A.   It wouid be absolutely foolish to count on him to be a member of our rotation in 2025.   It definitely could happen, but you can’t be planning around that.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

To me, Johnson has proven virtually nothing.  He’s thrown 34.1 innings above low A, and has a grand total of 148 innings in the minors, the vast majority of which was in 2021 in low A.   It wouid be absolutely foolish to count on him to be a member of our rotation in 2025.   It definitely could happen, but you can’t be planning around that.  

You forgot about the idea that everything is going to go perfectly, guys will develop perfectly and no one will get hurt.

 

[24fps]

Means will be 31 shortly after opening day and so far has pulled relatively little money out of the game.  By the time the Orioles are comfortable offering him any kind of extension, Means will have had the time to decide whether to gamble on his health in free agency or not.  If he stays healthy, my guess is that he would be looking for a guaranteed deal in the Chris Bassitt range or longer because it will be his best opportunity for a big payday.

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Means will be 31 shortly after opening day and so far has pulled relatively little money out of the game.  By the time the Orioles are comfortable offering him any kind of extension, Means will have had the time to decide whether to gamble on his health in free agency or not.  If he stays healthy, my guess is that he would be looking for a guaranteed deal in the Chris Bassitt range or longer because it will be his best opportunity for a big payday.

As always, the longer you get into the season with Means being both effective and healthy the higher the price goes.  However, like most players Means is probably going to take the gamble that he has a full healthy season and look for the biggest contact of his career next off season.   

[OrangeTurtle]

If Marlins don't extend QO to Soler, I'd be interested in 3/$54MM to lock in a big time MOO RH power bat.

[AnythingO's]

Means has a total of 380 IP in his career with ERA of 3.7, he threw a total of 65 IP this year. To count on more than 100 IP in 2024 from Means is fantasy. If Kremer is your #5 filling the innings eater role then SG is right, we need 2 SPs better than Kremer or you need to made Well-Means a tandem which most seem to thing is a bad idea.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

12 hours ago, waroriole said:

All they need to do is work on it in the offseason.

It also helps when all your players show up to Spring Training "in the best shape they have ever been in."

[Orioles0615]

7 hours ago, OrangeTurtle said:

If Marlins don't extend QO to Soler, I'd be interested in 3/$54MM to lock in a big time MOO RH power bat.

54/3 is a lot for someone who will only start against lefties

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

Means has a total of 380 IP in his career with ERA of 3.7, he threw a total of 65 IP this year. To count on more than 100 IP in 2024 from Means is fantasy. 

I think you are probably overstating the case.  Lots of guys come back from TJ surgery and throw more than 100 innings their first year back.  Alex Cobb, for example, missed all of 2015, threw 43.2 innings (majors and minors) at the back end of 2016, then threw 179 innings in 2017.   Strasburg threw 44.1 innings in 2011 after TJ, then threw 159.1 his first full year back.  Bedard threw only 19.1 minor league innings coming back from TJ, then 142.1 the next year.  

So, I certainly don’t think it’s a “fantasy” that Means could throw 140-175 innings next year.  Wouid I assume that he will?  No.   
 

[RZNJ]

9 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

Means has a total of 380 IP in his career with ERA of 3.7, he threw a total of 65 IP this year. To count on more than 100 IP in 2024 from Means is fantasy. If Kremer is your #5 filling the innings eater role then SG is right, we need 2 SPs better than Kremer or you need to made Well-Means a tandem which most seem to thing is a bad idea.

You’re nuts if you think the Orioles are getting two starting pitchers better than Kremer.  They are going to hope Means can get through the season.  He threw 155 innings in 2019 and 146 in 2021 but he’s never made 30 starts.  He’ll start the year in the rotation and we’ll see how it goes.   

[OnlyOneOriole]

On 10/13/2023 at 9:16 AM, G54377 said:

I do think Seattle is a good trade partner. Seems like we match up well, if we want to pick up another young controlable starter.

Agree.

[AnythingO's]

13 hours ago, RZNJ said:

You’re nuts if you think the Orioles are getting two starting pitchers better than Kremer.  They are going to hope Means can get through the season.  He threw 155 innings in 2019 and 146 in 2021 but he’s never made 30 starts.  He’ll start the year in the rotation and we’ll see how it goes.   

I agree with you, I absolutely don't see them getting 2 SPs better than Kremer. The point I was trying to make was that if Kremer is your #5 (as many here say) then you need 2 SPs because Means in unlikely to hold #3 slot. Frobby is correct also, "fantasy" was too strong a word. However counting on Means to pitch like Bradish, GRod, Kremer did this year is WC-like optimistic. Means' high is 26 starts, pre-TJ. In the first year back "expecting" him to better that mark and increase his IP by 75 IP or more is very optimistic. We were very lucky with B, G, and K this year re: injuries, I don't expect that to repeat.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, AnythingO's said:

I agree with you, I absolutely don't see them getting 2 SPs better than Kremer. The point I was trying to make was that if Kremer is your #5 (as many here say) then you need 2 SPs because Means in unlikely to hold #3 slot. Frobby is correct also, "fantasy" was too strong a word. However counting on Means to pitch like Bradish, GRod, Kremer did this year is WC-like optimistic. Means' high is 26 starts, pre-TJ. In the first year back "expecting" him to better that mark and increase his IP by 75 IP or more is very optimistic. We were very lucky with B, G, and K this year re: injuries, I don't expect that to repeat.

Ok, but I see nothing wrong with starting with Means in the rotation.  He could pitch 20 innings and go down or he could pitch 150 and get through the year.   Just because the odds of Means making 32 starts is probably way under 50% doesn’t mean it’s a bad gamble.    You still have Irvin as a safety net, and Povich and McDermott trying to make a case for a mid season promotion.