John Smoltz is high on Tyler Wells as a starter

[vab]

Forget about the durability - this guy's stuff just plays up so much in short stints out of the bullpen that he's just much more effective there. Put guys where they're most effective, period. 

[Sports Guy]

39 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Yeah, we have a body of work now that suggests he doesn't have that many innings in him per year. Now if you're ok using him for half a year as a starter then move him to relief in the second half or once he starts to break down, then ok, but in no shape or form can you call Tyler Wells a "horse" when he's never made more than 23 starts in a season.

On top of it all, his 4.98 FIP and the fact he gave up 25 home runs in just 118.2 IP suggests some regression next year if he sticks as a starter. Now Wells certainly has the arsenal and the ability to get into the 6th inning often getting into the 6th inning in 13 of his 20 starts. The question is whether he can spend an entire year in the rotation? 

The only time Wells has thrown more than the 118.2 IP he threw last year was in 2018 when he threw 119.1 innings between A+ and AA. Of course he needed Tommy John after that season.

He's looks like he's built like a "horse", and he has the repertoire to be successful as a starter, but we've never seen him come close to the workload needed to be considered a "horse".

All of this..the performance is the stuff that keeps getting overlooked. 

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, vab said:

Forget about the durability - this guy's stuff just plays up so much in short stints out of the bullpen that he's just much more effective there. Put guys where they're most effective, period. 

I'd rather put them where they provide the most value.

Starters are usually more valuable than relievers, but not always.

I'm not eliminating the idea of him as a starter. His offseason routine should absolutely be in preparation for that. Adjust again if we have to. 

[Spy Fox]

29 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'll be honest though, I do not expect Elias to pick up a top starter this offseason so he very well may start next season in the Orioles rotation. It would not surprise me at all if the Orioles rotation next year is not Bradish, Rodriguez, Means, Wells and Kremer. 

Is that good enough come playoff time? I guess it depends on if Bradish takes the next step to be a TOR, Rodriguez becomes a solid #2 or starts to fulfill is TOR potential, Means can stay healthy, and Kremer and Wells can at least provide solid #4 and #5 type starts.

It also just depends how the dice fall in those few October games. I think you could re-roll this postseason and potentially see Bradish/GRod/Kremer/Means combine for a similar performance as Montgomery/Eovaldi/Heaney/Scherzer in leading the team to a WS. Maybe next year that's more likely thanks to more experience with throwing that many innings. 

I still strongly believe they should be upgrading the rotation. 

[Aristotelian]

One thing I like about Wells, his stuff plays vs LHB much better than Kremer. I could see Wells as a 5th starter with a short leash in terms of innings/pitch count, pushing Kremer to the bullpen.

It is possible that Kremer is a better fit as a one inning guy mostly matched up vs RHB. In hindsight, Texas was a terrible matchup for Kremer as a starter. Then again, Kremer has been durable and backed up his 3.23 ERA in 2022 with a solid 4.12 in 2023 over 172.2 innings. Kremer was 2nd on the team in innings to Gibson. 

[Aristotelian]

33 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 

Is that good enough come playoff time? I guess it depends on if Bradish takes the next step to be a TOR, Rodriguez becomes a solid #2 or starts to fulfill is TOR potential, Means can stay healthy, and Kremer and Wells can at least provide solid #4 and #5 type starts. 

 

Do you mean Bradish needs to step up in the playoffs? I'd say Bradish is already TOR by just about any metric. He just needs to keep doing what he has done and stay healthy. Getting up to 190-200 IP would be gravy.

I agree, it would not surprise me to see Elias sit on those five and then make a move (or not) at the trade deadline. In my ideal world, it's Bradish, Sonny Gray, Grayson, and Means, along with one of Wells/Kremer. Kremer has 1 option and Wells has 2, so we could even see one stashed in AAA. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

Alot of these guys reached their innings limits of the past and were gassed. How do you fix that? How do you get them to be able to go more innings in the season and postseason like other top pitchers? Better offseason conditioning?

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Alot of these guys reached their innings limits of the past and were gassed. How do you fix that? How do you get them to be able to go more innings in the season and postseason like other top pitchers? Better offseason conditioning?

For most of these guys, it’s just a matter of maturing, getting the experience of going through a full season and working off a bigger base.   Honestly, those guys are in a much stronger position coming into 2024 given the number of innings they threw in 2023.   Wells is really the only one who may have a long term stamina issue.   

[LookinUp]

11 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Alot of these guys reached their innings limits of the past and were gassed. How do you fix that? How do you get them to be able to go more innings in the season and postseason like other top pitchers? Better offseason conditioning?

Do what the Rangers did (probably not deliberately) and give guys a month or two off in the middle of the year.

They were starved for pitching a month or two ago. Now they're in the world series on the backs of an awesome offense (which we didn't have) and guys like Eovaldi who didn't pitch the full season.

[Tony-OH]

24 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Do you mean Bradish needs to step up in the playoffs? I'd say Bradish is already TOR by just about any metric. He just needs to keep doing what he has done and stay healthy. Getting up to 190-200 IP would be gravy.

I agree, it would not surprise me to see Elias sit on those five and then make a move (or not) at the trade deadline. In my ideal world, it's Bradish, Sonny Gray, Grayson, and Means, along with one of Wells/Kremer. Kremer has 1 option and Wells has 2, so we could even see one stashed in AAA. 

When Bradish is knocking out 6 to 7 solid innings in a playoff/world series game he can be called a TOR. When Bradish can give you closer to 200 innings vs the 168.2 he gave them this year, he can be considered a TOR. 

Now don't get me wrong, Bradish had a great year, but one excellent 168.2 inning season followed by an inability to complete 5 innings in his first playoff start does not make him a TOR in my opinion. Since being a TOR can have multiple meaning and criteria to different people, I have zero issues if you want to call him a TOR or think of him as a TOR. 

A TOR for me is that horse at the top of your rotation that you are shocked when they don't give you a fairly dominant start and come playoff time, he steps up and shows why he's really a TOR.

Bradish has the ability to get there. He's not there yet and after only two years in the big leagues, it should not be expected. 

I do think he and Rodriguez can make a fantastic 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation for years to come, but they both need experience and in Rodriguez's case, the ability to contain their emotions in big moments.

But, back to Wells, since it is his thread, Wells in more of solid back of the rotation guy or #4 starter in the playoffs/World Series if he's still got innings left in him.

[dystopia]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

When Bradish and knocking out 6 to 7 solid innings in a playoff/world series game he can be called a TOR. When Bradish can give you closer to 200 innings vs the 168.2 he gave them this year, he can be considered a TOR. 

Now don't get me wrong, Bradish had a great year, but one excellent 168.2 inning season followed by an inability to complete 5 innings in his first playoff start does not make him a TOR in my opinion. Since being a TOR can have multiple meaning and criteria to different people, I have zero issues if you want to call him a TOR or think of him as a TOR. 

A TOR for me is that horse at the top of your rotation that you are shocked when they don't give you a fairly dominant start and come playoff time, he steps up and shows why he's really a TOR.

Bradish has the ability to get there. He's not there yet and after only two years in the big leagues, it should not be expected. 

I do think he and Rodriguez can make a fantastic 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation for years to come, but they both need experience and in Rodriguez's case, the ability to contain their emotions in big moments.

But, back to Wells, since it is his thread, Wells in more of solid back of the rotation guy or #4 starter in the playoffs/World Series if he's still got innings left in him.

That was on Hyde, not Bradish.

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You can’t be a “horse” if you can’t be reliable past 100 IP.

Yes …he can’t run out of gas mid season. I actually prefer him as a high leverage reliever.

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

When Bradish is knocking out 6 to 7 solid innings in a playoff/world series game he can be called a TOR. When Bradish can give you closer to 200 innings vs the 168.2 he gave them this year, he can be considered a TOR. 

Now don't get me wrong, Bradish had a great year, but one excellent 168.2 inning season followed by an inability to complete 5 innings in his first playoff start does not make him a TOR in my opinion. Since being a TOR can have multiple meaning and criteria to different people, I have zero issues if you want to call him a TOR or think of him as a TOR. 

A TOR for me is that horse at the top of your rotation that you are shocked when they don't give you a fairly dominant start and come playoff time, he steps up and shows why he's really a TOR.

Bradish has the ability to get there. He's not there yet and after only two years in the big leagues, it should not be expected. 

I do think he and Rodriguez can make a fantastic 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation for years to come, but they both need experience and in Rodriguez's case, the ability to contain their emotions in big moments.

But, back to Wells, since it is his thread, Wells in more of solid back of the rotation guy or #4 starter in the playoffs/World Series if he's still got innings left in him.

That's fair. This is just semantics but your criteria I would call "Ace" with TOR being a somewhat larger category. I agree, by your criteria he still has some things to prove. Still, #4 MLB in ERA, #16 in fWAR. Should be a #1 or #2 on just about any playoff team. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

In an ideal world, the Orioles pick up enough SP and RP this offseason that they’re not counting on Wells or Hall in either capacity. Then they can give them another shot as SP, either in MLB rotation or stretched out in AAA, without needing them in the MLB pen. It’s hard to turn your back on their SP upside without a last shot at it.

However, I think it’s overly optimistic to expect the team to add 1-2 mid-rotation SP and 1-2 late-inning RP. Wells and Hall are going to get tabbed to fill those roles in some capacity. I wonder if the Orioles are even internally decided on it now or want to remain flexible to see how the offseason goes and who they can bring in. 

[Malike]

Maybe it's just me, but Wells didn't look to be in great shape. I commented many times this season that he looked quite heavy, especially as the season went on.