Santander Speculation

[Aristotelian]

35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would you forfeit a pick to sign Santander to a long term deal?

I would not but plenty of teams have signed guys with similar resumes to Santander. I'd also be fine with him accepting.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I would not but plenty of teams have signed guys with similar resumes to Santander. I'd also be fine with him accepting.

You think the O's would be fine with an additional 20M added to the payroll?

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I would not but plenty of teams have signed guys with similar resumes to Santander. I'd also be fine with him accepting.

I doubt the Orioles would extend a QO to Santander if there was any risk of him accepting.

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Braves spent 3M back in 2016 for the 76th pick.  Dodgers spent 2.75M for the 74th pick in 2015.

The pick in question also might be higher than 100.

It's an additional cost.

Right, so we're talking about a 75 million contract, and like 5% of the overall cost.  It's not literally nothing, but it is not a big part of the calculation.  

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You think the O's would be fine with an additional 20M added to the payroll?

Depending what happens with revenues and the rest of payroll, sure. They paid close to that for Gibson and Frazier. It would certainly represent a pivot under Elias but the team may be in a new strategic situation. $20M would barely put Santander in the top 50 and without any long term commitment. 

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Depending what happens with revenues and the rest of payroll, sure. They paid close to that for Gibson and Frazier. It would certainly represent a pivot under Elias but the team may be in a new strategic situation. $20M would barely put Santander in the top 50 and without any long term commitment. 

They paid that for Gibson because the starting staff lacked depth.  Frazier was signed so they didn’t have to rush Ortiz or Westburg.   If Santander plays this season with the Orioles then by this time next year, you’ll have Cowser and Kjerstad with more ML experience and Beavers, Fabian, Horvath, etc. closer to the ML.   The whole idea of having young talent is so you don’t have to spend 20M on a good, but not star RF.

[Sports Guy]

The Angelos owned Baltimore Orioles are not paying 20 million for Santander. 

[Just Regular]

I agree the org doesn't want to pay him 1/20, but whatever chance there is he's good enough to decline that offer (13%?    35%?) should be factored into his asset value.

The scenario where Elias nets a bonus pick is Santander has a B+/A- 2024, and he can offer with confidence it'll be declined.    I agree with @RZNJ that if he has a B- kind of year where it is more of a 50/50 they won't risk the offer.

We'll get a round of Offers/No Offers in a couple weeks, and over the winter see how Teoscar, Soler, JD Martinez, etc. do in terms of pulling $40mm, $60mm, $75mm, etc.     My general guess is a guy like Santander with one early 30's bite at the apple would take ~3/45 before 1/20 if they are in a good spot.

We'll see how Martin Perez plays out this winter - he probably "messed up" taking the TEX QO last winter, because now he's going to get so much less he might be a likely Oriole.

 

[Can_of_corn]

57 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Depending what happens with revenues and the rest of payroll, sure. They paid close to that for Gibson and Frazier. It would certainly represent a pivot under Elias but the team may be in a new strategic situation. $20M would barely put Santander in the top 50 and without any long term commitment. 

Sure they paid close to that for Gibson and Frazier.  But this would be in addition to whatever they were already planing on spending. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Forget the pick…would you sign him to a 2-5 year deal at 20ishM a year to begin with, if you are the Os?

I don’t think he’ll cost $20 mm/yr on a long term deal.  I’m thinking he’d command about 3/$50 mm.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think he’ll cost $20 mm/yr on a long term deal.  I’m thinking he’d command about 3/$50 mm.

So you get a 17% discount for getting the family sized?

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think he’ll cost $20 mm/yr on a long term deal.  I’m thinking he’d command about 3/$50 mm.

Tomato, tomato…whatever. The Os aren’t paying him that either.

[owknows]

Its been great watching him mature as a player, and he's given us a few good years.

Trade him for some decent MiLB pitching.

Kjerstad and Mayo are gonna need ABs

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Tomato, tomato…whatever. The Os aren’t paying him that either.

Oh, I agree.   I’m just saying I don’t think any team is going to pay him $20 mm per for multiple years.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Oh, I agree.   I’m just saying I don’t think any team is going to pay him $20 mm per for multiple years.  

It depends on what he does in 2024 and how many pursuers he has.

However, what does matter is that the Os aren’t going to give him a long term deal and they aren’t likely to give him a QO either.

So, if you keep him, you basically assume that you are going for it with him in 2024 and getting nothing for him after. Maybe they are ok with that.

But I think that’s a waste of an asset when you have so many young pieces that could take over that spot.