2023 #7 Prospect Enrique Bradfield Jr. - CF

[Big Mac]

25 minutes ago, sevastras said:

As of today, it is thought that he has more upside hit tool than Mateo’s present value. It wouldn’t be that much of a stretch to say he could hit as well now as Mateo. Not because he is that good, but Mateo is that bad with the bat. Also, he is probably faster than Mateo(marginally because they are both fast but he is a half step faster). 
People want more power out of him for some illusion that he will just be attacked because he won’t take the pitcher deep. I don’t understand that because him on base has a decent opportunity at becoming a double simply from a stole base. Also, the disruption on the base path is a factor beyond the measurable OPS

I like EBJ a lot, but he is certainly going to need to hit for more power than he showed in his brief professional debut last year to be a starter in the big leagues.  Now, I think that he will and it seems most scouts have that opinion as well.  We aren't talking home runs here, but he needs gap power and the ability to rack up some XBH.

3 extra base hits in 110 minor league plate appearances just won't cut it.  If he doesn't improve on that and ML pitchers know that the worst he can do is flare a singe over the shortstops head, outfielders will play way in and pitchers will just attack.  The walks will decrease significantly.  If you have elite plate discipline, it's easy to rack up walks in the low minors without any power.  There are too many pitchers with horrible command that couldn't challenge you if they tried.

Again, I think he is going to improve on that.  However, he'll need to do much better than a .038 ISO to be a ML starter. 

[Three Run Homer]

1 hour ago, Big Mac said:

However, he'll need to do much better than a .038 ISO to be a ML starter. 

He will need to be better than .038 ISO, for sure.  Maybe not that much better.  Brett Butler had an excellent career with a career ISO of about 0.085.   Billy Hamilton's career ISO was similar.  Butler had a much better hit tool and batting eye than Billy Hamilton; Hamilton was better on defense.  Brett Butler with better defense is not a crazy aspiration for EBJ, and that's a hell of a ballplayer.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Say O! said:

The difference among EBJ and other questionable hit tool players cited is that EBJ has batting eye.  He may yield .80pts OBP delta above his BA.  Hamilton, Pierre, Mateo, etc were not same in that regard.
 

I shared this in another prospect thread on the minors board, but worth reiterating.  EBJ with elite defense, elite baserunning and .425 slug (mentioned earlier in thread)…well that’s peak Kenny Lofton and 7-8 WAR/162.  I’m not saying that EBJ will ever reach that level, just looking to set perspective on what his skill set means if the hit tool develops. 

Since Bradfield had a .329 SLG last season, I’m not holding my breath on him posting a .425 SLG in the majors.   It’s pretty unlikely.  

[Tony-OH]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Since Bradfield had a .329 SLG last season, I’m not holding my breath on him posting a .425 SLG in the majors.   It’s pretty unlikely.  

Perhaps, but I think we need a full season of stats from Bradfield to get a better feel for his power numbers than his adjustment to pro ball. But I do agree that he will need to show some ability to drive the ball more often and not hit so many balls on the ground despite his elite speed.

 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Perhaps, but I think we need a full season of stats from Bradfield to get a better feel for his power numbers than his adjustment to pro ball. But I do agree that he will need to show some ability to drive the ball more often and not hit so many balls on the ground despite his elite speed.

 

Sure.   Part of my point is we don’t really need for Bradfield to have a .425 SLG in order to be an excellent player.   The main thing is to hit with enough authority so that pitchers won’t just toss it down the middle and dare him to hit it, so that he can maintain an above average walk rate.  

I found Keith Law’s comment interesting: “Bradfield seemed like a lock for a top-10 pick after his freshman year at Vanderbilt, when he hit .336/.451/.414 as a 19-year-old in the SEC, stealing 47 bases in 53 attempts, but somewhere, someone convinced him to change his swing to try to hit for power, and while he did go from 1 homer as a freshman to hitting 14 the next two seasons, his overall hitting went backward and I think helped Baltimore land him at pick 15 last season….He’s not a power hitter, but he’s not powerless, if that makes sense — he is capable of putting 5-10 balls in the seats a year, but the more he tries to do so, the worse he’ll be as a hitter. Last spring, he was loading his hands extremely deep, taking a huge stride, opening his hips way too early, then collapsing his back side to try to lift — or will — the ball out of the park. He needs a simpler approach, like the one he had as a freshman, that focuses on putting the ball in play, as he’ll end up with a lot of extra bases thanks to his speed, and he does have enough strength to drive balls to the gaps and catch up to major-league fastballs. I don’t change players’ rankings or evaluations based on their parent organizations, since that could change at any time, but I think Bradfield is in an organization that will figure out what to do with him very quickly.”

So, are we trying to change Bradfield’s swing to add power, or are we telling Bradfield to stop trying to hit for power?
 

[RZNJ]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sure.   Part of my point is we don’t really need for Bradfield to have a .425 SLG in order to be an excellent player.   The main thing is to hit with enough authority so that pitchers won’t just toss it down the middle and dare him to hit it, so that he can maintain an above average walk rate.  

I found Keith Law’s comment interesting: “Bradfield seemed like a lock for a top-10 pick after his freshman year at Vanderbilt, when he hit .336/.451/.414 as a 19-year-old in the SEC, stealing 47 bases in 53 attempts, but somewhere, someone convinced him to change his swing to try to hit for power, and while he did go from 1 homer as a freshman to hitting 14 the next two seasons, his overall hitting went backward and I think helped Baltimore land him at pick 15 last season….He’s not a power hitter, but he’s not powerless, if that makes sense — he is capable of putting 5-10 balls in the seats a year, but the more he tries to do so, the worse he’ll be as a hitter. Last spring, he was loading his hands extremely deep, taking a huge stride, opening his hips way too early, then collapsing his back side to try to lift — or will — the ball out of the park. He needs a simpler approach, like the one he had as a freshman, that focuses on putting the ball in play, as he’ll end up with a lot of extra bases thanks to his speed, and he does have enough strength to drive balls to the gaps and catch up to major-league fastballs. I don’t change players’ rankings or evaluations based on their parent organizations, since that could change at any time, but I think Bradfield is in an organization that will figure out what to do with him very quickly.”

So, are we trying to change Bradfield’s swing to add power, or are we telling Bradfield to stop trying to hit for power?
 

I believe they have one main philosophy.  Develop your best swing and put your best swing on a pitch you can drive.  I don’t believe they are going to encourage the slap hitter, put the ball in play approach.   

[DirtyBird]

This guy could be a good major league player. Odds are, he will not be. History shows that it is way to early to pencil him in to a future major league roster.

[Just Regular]

It will be interesting to watch Matt Blood's comments and what the swing plane looks like as the year gets going.

To the extent all Bats are Ty Cobb or Babe Ruth, even in the cases of Norby and Cowser, whose DNA is I feel more Ty Cobb, challenging them to get to their power has been part of the game plan and wow are they not .300 hitters anymore.

I think EBJ may be a mold breaker in this respect.

In terms of what kind of line to guess at, I did enjoy learning recently Billy Hamilton was basically 250/300/350 in both his AAA and MLB rookie season.    I believe EBJ does have a little more juice than Hamilton did, but for starting out its a very easy yardstick.     Al Bumbry was just about .100 ISO during his career, working off being a .280 lifetime hitter.

Last 10 Years, JBJ and Ender Inciarte are a couple other CF who have had the quiet ~3.5 fWAR kind of seasons with lots of Baserunning + Defensive value.

Cowser and Kjerstad are probably safe from the 220/260/300 guy...the 250/305/360 guy could give them some problems.

[Tony-OH]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sure.   Part of my point is we don’t really need for Bradfield to have a .425 SLG in order to be an excellent player.   The main thing is to hit with enough authority so that pitchers won’t just toss it down the middle and dare him to hit it, so that he can maintain an above average walk rate.  

I found Keith Law’s comment interesting: “Bradfield seemed like a lock for a top-10 pick after his freshman year at Vanderbilt, when he hit .336/.451/.414 as a 19-year-old in the SEC, stealing 47 bases in 53 attempts, but somewhere, someone convinced him to change his swing to try to hit for power, and while he did go from 1 homer as a freshman to hitting 14 the next two seasons, his overall hitting went backward and I think helped Baltimore land him at pick 15 last season….He’s not a power hitter, but he’s not powerless, if that makes sense — he is capable of putting 5-10 balls in the seats a year, but the more he tries to do so, the worse he’ll be as a hitter. Last spring, he was loading his hands extremely deep, taking a huge stride, opening his hips way too early, then collapsing his back side to try to lift — or will — the ball out of the park. He needs a simpler approach, like the one he had as a freshman, that focuses on putting the ball in play, as he’ll end up with a lot of extra bases thanks to his speed, and he does have enough strength to drive balls to the gaps and catch up to major-league fastballs. I don’t change players’ rankings or evaluations based on their parent organizations, since that could change at any time, but I think Bradfield is in an organization that will figure out what to do with him very quickly.”

So, are we trying to change Bradfield’s swing to add power, or are we telling Bradfield to stop trying to hit for power?
 

I don't think the Orioles do very much with the players they drafted in that first taste of pro ball, especially with the draft being so late now and players not really getting a lot of professional PAs that first season.

I'm sure they evaluated him and have him working on things this offseason, so we'll get a better gauge of him as a player in that first full season. Some guys have games that allow them to be very successful at low levels but that won't translate to high levels of the minors or the major leagues. 

Bradfield is a bit of a wildcard with a nice upside if he can drive the ball a little more. His elite eye at the plate is going allow him to have a very high OBP if he can show even the slightest bit of ability to do damage or the ability to fight off pitches until he gets that walk or gets a pitch he can put in play well.

The range is already major league elite, but his arm is well below average from what I saw in a few throws so that will limit the "elite defense" angle, but he'll cover a heck of a lot with that speed.

I'm looking forward to watching his progress this season because he's one of the bigger wildcards for me and I think that first full season will tell us a lot.

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 11/15/2023 at 8:47 AM, Rbiggs2525 said:

Haven’t seen him play since college. I am hopeful for a player with a 340-350 OBP and 400 slugging. Add in elite defense and base running, you have a top division center fielder. 

You've just describes a perennial 5+ WAR player. I would like that as well

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Sure.   Part of my point is we don’t really need for Bradfield to have a .425 SLG in order to be an excellent player.   The main thing is to hit with enough authority so that pitchers won’t just toss it down the middle and dare him to hit it, so that he can maintain an above average walk rate.  

I found Keith Law’s comment interesting: “Bradfield seemed like a lock for a top-10 pick after his freshman year at Vanderbilt, when he hit .336/.451/.414 as a 19-year-old in the SEC, stealing 47 bases in 53 attempts, but somewhere, someone convinced him to change his swing to try to hit for power, and while he did go from 1 homer as a freshman to hitting 14 the next two seasons, his overall hitting went backward and I think helped Baltimore land him at pick 15 last season….He’s not a power hitter, but he’s not powerless, if that makes sense — he is capable of putting 5-10 balls in the seats a year, but the more he tries to do so, the worse he’ll be as a hitter. Last spring, he was loading his hands extremely deep, taking a huge stride, opening his hips way too early, then collapsing his back side to try to lift — or will — the ball out of the park. He needs a simpler approach, like the one he had as a freshman, that focuses on putting the ball in play, as he’ll end up with a lot of extra bases thanks to his speed, and he does have enough strength to drive balls to the gaps and catch up to major-league fastballs. I don’t change players’ rankings or evaluations based on their parent organizations, since that could change at any time, but I think Bradfield is in an organization that will figure out what to do with him very quickly.”

So, are we trying to change Bradfield’s swing to add power, or are we telling Bradfield to stop trying to hit for power?
 

The swing should be to hit the ball with authority. Worry less about it going over the fence and more about going gap to gap.

He hopefully will be able to be a 35-50 XBH guy.

I think there are a few questions to ask about his future:

1) Can he be a guy that hits .280 and gets on base 34% of the time or better?

2) How does he fare vs lefties?

 

My guess is those 2 things will be a big factor in determining his future.  If he can be a 280/340+ type guy, that means he is showing enough power that pitchers can’t just challenge him and blow it past him at will.

He has the batting eye and on base skills that you want but he is going to have to hit the ball and hit it with some authority.  
 

Im not sure there are many players that I’m looking more forward to following their progress thus year than Bradfield.  What he could become is a really hard player to find and someone that could really be an elite weapon for years to come. It seems like he is 2/3 of the way there…but that final 1/3 is going to determine everything.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't think the Orioles do very much with the players they drafted in that first taste of pro ball, especially with the draft being so late now and players not really getting a lot of professional PAs that first season.

I'm sure they evaluated him and have him working on things this offseason, so we'll get a better gauge of him as a player in that first full season. Some guys have games that allow them to be very successful at low levels but that won't translate to high levels of the minors or the major leagues. 

Bradfield is a bit of a wildcard with a nice upside if he can drive the ball a little more. His elite eye at the plate is going allow him to have a very high OBP if he can show even the slightest bit of ability to do damage or the ability to fight off pitches until he gets that walk or gets a pitch he can put in play well.

The range is already major league elite, but his arm is well below average from what I saw in a few throws so that will limit the "elite defense" angle, but he'll cover a heck of a lot with that speed.

I'm looking forward to watching his progress this season because he's one of the bigger wildcards for me and I think that first full season will tell us a lot.

Yep…I think he’s the type of guy that you may very well know what you have in him within a year.

I realize Mullins, a guy who is somewhat similar, came on late after not being good but I think the SH aspect of things makes that a tougher comp.

[RZNJ]

Joey Ortiz in his first summer after being drafted in 2019 at Aberdeen when it was Advanced Rookie Ball.

228 PA.   .026 ISO.

If Bradfield hits the weight room, adds 10-15 pounds of good weight, and takes to the O’s hitting program he will surprise.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep…I think he’s the type of guy that you may very well know what you have in him within a year.

I realize Mullins, a guy who is somewhat similar, came on late after not being good but I think the SH aspect of things makes that a tougher comp.

Mullins was pretty good in the minors, though he struggled with LHP most of the time.  It was really just 2019 that was anomalous after being sent back down when he struggled in the majors.  

Bradfield’s a different type of hitter.  Mullins always had very good pop for such a little guy.  Bradfield is more of a contact hitter.   I agree with what you said in your prior post about just making hard contact and not worrying about putting it over the fence.  I’m looking forward to the first time he hits a liner into LCF at OPACY that rolls to the wall.   Stand-up triple?   
 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Mullins was pretty good in the minors, though he struggled with LHP most of the time.  It was really just 2019 that was anomalous after being sent back down when he struggled in the majors.  

Bradfield’s a different type of hitter.  Mullins always had very good pop for such a little guy.  Bradfield is more of a contact hitter.   I agree with what you said in your prior post about just making hard contact and not worrying about putting it over the fence.  I’m looking forward to the first time he hits a liner into LCF at OPACY that rolls to the wall.   Stand-up triple?   
 

I don't think they run them out in batting practice.