Cease vs everyone else

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I would rathr have Cease than Soto, especially if they cost the same.  The O's can't hit their way to a championship w/o top pitching.  Also, I believe the new QO compensation tops out at pick after 2nd round.

In a vacuum I'd rather have Soto.  He's as close to a lock for a 5 win season as you could hope for.

[backwardsk]

38 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Its nice to see an observer comment neutrally on Soto as a fit here without the "Angelos, never" automatic negative thought.

I think its an interesting thought exercise if the same trade package could get 1 year of Soto or 2 years of Cease which would better serve the championship odds of the 2024-2025 Orioles.      The 2025 Orioles MOO bats options may have a nice edge on 2024 with growth from Holliday-Mayo-Basallo.      The 2024 ZiPS still have 125-ish OPS+'s from Adley/Gunnar as the team leaders. 

Same as last year one of the world's greatest talents will play their walk year for about ~1/30, no long term commitment.     Guaranteed eventual 1st rounder with QO decline, a perk that Dylan Cease is less certain of.

I’d imagine that SD would want a pitching heavy return for Soto.

[Sports Guy]

 

[Sports Guy]

@Chicago White Sox do you get a sense if the WS want pitching or hitting?

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

 

The thing about any trade is that for every single one, we will be able to say "the O's could have beaten that". So that's going to be fun all offseason lol

[OriolesMagic83]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

The thing about any trade is that for every single one, we will be able to say "the O's could have beaten that". So that's going to be fun all offseason lol

No doubt we can say that when the O's lose in the 1st round again.  Good times!

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

The thing about any trade is that for every single one, we will be able to say "the O's could have beaten that". So that's going to be fun all offseason lol

Until we one day (tomorrow?  Friday?) get to the one where we get to discuss whether Elias overpaid.      Trading Bats for Arms at some point has been a near mathematical certainty with how the talent pile has started out.

I do think Cease-Burnes-Glasnow rate ahead of Eduardo-Stroman types significantly on a Sigbot pref list due to the hope for October dominance plus brevity of term.     Its just a question of outbidding other competitors.

2 years of Cease is a combo unlike any other pitcher on the market this year, so it isn't hard to picture the White Sox getting credible best bids from all the main players who want to discover if they have Cease or not before they proceed to the top free agents.

[Roll Tide]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

@Chicago White Sox do you get a sense if the WS want pitching or hitting?

He said sound defensive position players in one of his posts.

[Roll Tide]

11 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Until we one day (tomorrow?  Friday?) get to the one where we get to discuss whether Elias overpaid.      Trading Bats for Arms at some point has been a near mathematical certainty with how the talent pile has started out.

I do think Cease-Burnes-Glasnow rate ahead of Eduardo-Stroman types significantly on a Sigbot pref list due to the hope for October dominance plus brevity of term.     Its just a question of outbidding other competitors.

2 years of Cease is a combo unlike any other pitcher on the market this year, so it isn't hard to picture the White Sox getting credible best bids from all the main players who want to discover if they have Cease or not before they proceed to the top free agents.

But, what are you getting? If it’s the 4+ ERA guy it’s not worth as much. Most of his career that’s who he’s been. I’m not impressed by the 1.4 WHIP. I personally hope someone else grossly overpays. If they were willing to pay Nola than get Burnes and sign him to an extension.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

He said sound defensive position players in one of his posts.

He said he would be happy with Kjerstad/Cowser and Ortiz.   Seems obvious, right?

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

But, what are you getting? If it’s the 4+ ERA guy it’s not worth as much. Most of his career that’s who he’s been. I’m not impressed by the 1.4 WHIP. I personally hope someone else grossly overpays. If they were willing to pay Nola than get Burnes and sign him to an extension.

He looked pretty nibbly when he pitched against the Os last season if I recall, which just gives me a cold Jack Flaherty shiver. I agree the WHIP makes me uneasy.

And while I have faith in the Orioles pitching lab, they didn't do much to help Fuji or Flash, so it's not it's some sure thing that we fix Cease. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by interloper

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

He said he would be happy with Kjerstad/Cowser and Ortiz.   Seems obvious, right?

Yes ….but it would have to be Cowser and Ortiz, Kjerstad isn’t on the table imo. I do think they get one or two other guys.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

But, what are you getting? If it’s the 4+ ERA guy it’s not worth as much. Most of his career that’s who he’s been. I’m not impressed by the 1.4 WHIP. I personally hope someone else grossly overpays. If they were willing to pay Nola than get Burnes and sign him to an extension.

Who says they were willing to pay Nola.  There’s a Grand Canyon between being interested and coming to an agreement.   

[Roll Tide]

17 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Who says they were willing to pay Nola.  There’s a Grand Canyon between being interested and coming to an agreement.   

It said Elias was in on him and he couldn’t have been naive about the years and dollars it would take. Elias is by all accounts a smart guy. You don’t go to a lot to look at a Ferrari when you can only afford a Toyota Corolla.

also …… Outside his dominant season Cease had ERAs of 3.91, 4.01, and 4.58. 2 of the last 4 years his WHIP has been 1.40+ . Just comparing to Burnes ERAs of between 2.11 and 3.39 the last 4 years and WHIP 0.94-1.06. I’m going with Burnes and offering a big extension. Who doesn’t think that is the better move. Burnes is a rental right now so I’m guessing the asking price could be more reasonable.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Roll Tide

[CaptainRedbeard]

I like Cease and would give up a good package for him but I’m not getting my hopes up. Even though we have the farm system for it I just don’t see the Orioles outbidding the Dodgers. And the Braves don’t have a great farm but are probably willing to put a lot of it on the table. 

Maybe the Orioles will be willing to give Ortiz and Cowser, or some equivalent. There’s no reason they shouldn’t make a strong offer. But I expect another team is going to beat that and the Orioles will keep looking.