Cease vs everyone else

[ThisIsBirdland]

Manaea to the Mets might take away one more potential suitor. 

[Sports Guy]

59 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Manaea to the Mets might take away one more potential suitor. 

When the Mets did all those deadline deals they said they weren’t going to try to contend for a few years. This is what Scherzer said he was told, which prompted him to waive his NTC

Some of what they have done and especially tried to do this offseason call that into question but that was apparently what was said.

Scherzer was told they would look at smaller FA deals.  Now, if this is truly a transition year, even though Cease is on a good contract, would they trade some of their better prospects for Cease? That is more of a win now move and that isn’t what they want to do..again reportedly.

Maybe the Japanese pitcher was different because his age and the idea that he could be there for the contending years and still be in his prime?  Or maybe everything they said to Scherzer was bs.  Or maybe it’s true and the reported Mets interest is Boras talking to Heyman and trying to get more movement for all his clients….ie, maybe there is no Mets interest?

 

[Roll Tide]

9 hours ago, MCO'sFan said:

This guy clearly doesn’t know prospects. He’s just reading the Pipeline list and spouting off names. He’s says Bassillo is our #5 prospect. While this is technically true, it’s only because they haven’t posted their updated list. It’s likely he will be our #2 prospect and maybe a top 10 overall. 

So Basallo is a hit first guy almost destined (Defense45, Run 40) to end up at 1B, DH, or a slow RF. If I’m trading from my upper level prospects it’s him. I mean Mayo and Kjerstad seem to have similar profiles. How many 1B, DH, RF do we have room for?

[ThisIsBirdland]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

When the Mets did all those deadline deals they said they weren’t going to try to contend for a few years. This is what Scherzer said he was told, which prompted him to waive his NTC

Some of what they have done and especially tried to do this offseason call that into question but that was apparently what was said.

Scherzer was told they would look at smaller FA deals.  Now, if this is truly a transition year, even though Cease is on a good contract, would they trade some of their better prospects for Cease? That is more of a win now move and that isn’t what they want to do..again reportedly.

Maybe the Japanese pitcher was different because his age and the idea that he could be there for the contending years and still be in his prime?  Or maybe everything they said to Scherzer was bs.  Or maybe it’s true and the reported Mets interest is Boras talking to Heyman and trying to get more movement for all his clients….ie, maybe there is no Mets interest?

 

I’d be surprised if they sold prospects for a two year investment. I think they’re looking at each move individually. Yamamoto would’ve been there through a rough year or two. Manaea is a good placeholder. Cohen isn’t going to do a full tank job. But Cease for the next two years (unless they use that to negotiate an extension) doesn’t make a ton of sense.

[Sports Guy]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2024/01/07/mlb-rumors-10-predictions-2024-spring-training/72133963007/
 

Nightengale predicts that Cease will stay put because no one is willing to pay the asking price of at least 2 top 100 guys and 2 other guys.

The 2 “other guys” likely consist of a prospect in the 7-15 range(depending on the system and either a ML contributor (like when they got Lopez or when we got Sherrill) or some kind of an Intl lottery ticket.

The question is, how are they defining a top 100 guy and how high does the headliner have to be?

There are a lot of guys who appear on one list but not another. There is a general consensus for the top 40ish guys even if the order isn’t the same.  Once you get past that, it gets blurry. And obviously the WS have their own evaluations.

Just baseball has Norby at 76. He has been in other top 100’s in the past or just left off of those lists. Does that mean he’s a top 100 guy?  What about Ortiz even though he makes less sense for them.

And does a guy like Westburg, who is no longer a prospect, count in that equation?

I think it’s possible they get 4 players but to do it, the lead guy isn’t going to be a top 35ish guy like Kjerstad and Cowser are.  If they get a player ranked that high and they get another top 100 guy, I’m not sure they really get anything and even if they did what else they get will be something the other teams wants to give up for any number of reasons.

This is all to say that Getz isn’t getting what he wants for Cease. I know the fan bases hope is that once the 3 remaining key FA pitchers are off the board, that a bidding war will ensue for Cease and drive up his price. There is nothing realistic about that imo. Cease’s value is  what it is. He doesn’t become a better pitcher just because Snell signs with the Angels. 

Edited January 7 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

28 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So Basallo is a hit first guy almost destined (Defense45, Run 40) to end up at 1B, DH, or a slow RF. If I’m trading from my upper level prospects it’s him. I mean Mayo and Kjerstad seem to have similar profiles. How many 1B, DH, RF do we have room for?

Tide, you have to do better over there.  Basallo is 19 almost all year and starting in AA.  Even if he was just a 1B, everything about him says “special”.  BUT, consensus says this kid can stick at catcher.  If we didn’t have Rutschman, Basallo would be our catcher of the future.  As it is, he’ll probably split time there and elsewhere.   I’m trading Kjerstad before Basallo if that’s the choice.  We have a bunch of very good prospects and we have Holliday, Basallo, and Mayo.

When the baseball writer suggested it might take Kjerstad instead of Basallo you should have been all over that.   No problemo.  

[Otter]

35 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So Basallo is a hit first guy almost destined (Defense45, Run 40) to end up at 1B, DH, or a slow RF. If I’m trading from my upper level prospects it’s him. I mean Mayo and Kjerstad seem to have similar profiles. How many 1B, DH, RF do we have room for?

I think you answered your own question.  You mentioned 3 positions and 3 prospects.  Santander will be gone after this year, and Mountcastle/O'Hearn shouldn't block these three elite prospects.  We also know the old adage if you hit they'll find a place for you to play...

[Moose Milligan]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2024/01/07/mlb-rumors-10-predictions-2024-spring-training/72133963007/
 

Nightengale predicts that Cease will stay put because no one is willing to pay the asking price of at least 2 top 100 guys and 2 other guys.

The 2 “other guys” likely consist of a prospect in the 7-15 range(depending on the system and either a ML contributor (like when they got Lopez or when we got Sherrill) or some kind of an Intl lottery ticket.

The question is, how are they defining a top 100 guy and how high does the headliner have to be?

There are a lot of guys who appear on one list but not another. There is a general consensus for the top 40ish guys even if the order isn’t the same.  Once you get past that, it gets blurry. And obviously the WS have their own evaluations.

Just baseball has Norby at 76. He has been in other top 100’s in the past or just left off of those lists. Does that mean he’s a top 100 guy?  What about Ortiz even though he makes less sense for them.

And does a guy like Westburg, who is no longer a prospect, count in that equation?

I think it’s possible they get 4 players but to do it, the lead guy isn’t going to be a top 35ish guy like Kjerstad and Cowser are.  If they get a player ranked that high and they get another top 100 guy, I’m not sure they really get anything and even if they did what else they get will be something the other teams wants to give up for any number of reasons.

This is all to say that Getz isn’t getting what he wants for Cease. I know the fan bases hope is that once the 3 remaining key FA pitchers are off the board, that a bidding war will ensue for Cease and drive up his price. There is nothing realistic about that imo. Cease’s value is  what it is. He doesn’t become a better pitcher just because Snell signs with the Angels. 

Told ya Cease staying out was a distinct possibility. 
 

I think that’s dumb if they don’t trade him but if Getz doesn’t like what the market is telling him then that’s his problem. 

[RZNJ]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2024/01/07/mlb-rumors-10-predictions-2024-spring-training/72133963007/
 

Nightengale predicts that Cease will stay put because no one is willing to pay the asking price of at least 2 top 100 guys and 2 other guys.

The 2 “other guys” likely consist of a prospect in the 7-15 range(depending on the system and either a ML contributor (like when they got Lopez or when we got Sherrill) or some kind of an Intl lottery ticket.

The question is, how are they defining a top 100 guy and how high does the headliner have to be?

There are a lot of guys who appear on one list but not another. There is a general consensus for the top 40ish guys even if the order isn’t the same.  Once you get past that, it gets blurry. And obviously the WS have their own evaluations.

Just baseball has Norby at 76. He has been in other top 100’s in the past or just left off of those lists. Does that mean he’s a top 100 guy?  What about Ortiz even though he makes less sense for them.

And does a guy like Westburg, who is no longer a prospect, count in that equation?

I think it’s possible they get 4 players but to do it, the lead guy isn’t going to be a top 35ish guy like Kjerstad and Cowser are.  If they get a player ranked that high and they get another top 100 guy, I’m not sure they really get anything and even if they did what else they get will be something the other teams wants to give up for any number of reasons.

This is all to say that Getz isn’t getting what he wants for Cease. I know the fan bases hope is that once the 3 remaining key FA pitchers are off the board, that a bidding war will ensue for Cease and drive up his price. There is nothing realistic about that imo. Cease’s value is  what it is. He doesn’t become a better pitcher just because Snell signs with the Angels. 

WS fans wet their pants each time a new team is reported to be interested in Cease.  That should drive the price up.  Yet, the Braves, Reds, and Mets have all gone in different directions.   The WS supposed insider says teams are testing Getz resolve.  Heh?   What about the bidding frenzy?   Now we’re to believe the teams that want Cease are colluding against the WS.   No logic whatsoever.  It just depends on which way the wind is blowing in The Windy City.

[Roll Tide]

Just more posturing…. If he goes to spring training with them he’s likely held until someone is desperate or the deadline. Unless he’s pitching at his 2022 level or close his value goes down. If it’s not posturing Getz is playing with fire. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Told ya Cease staying out was a distinct possibility. 
 

I think that’s dumb if they don’t trade him but if Getz doesn’t like what the market is telling him then that’s his problem. 

I agree it’s possible. I think his value could increase but it’s hell of a risk for 1 of your only 2 trade pieces that will bring you back any value. If he gets hurt or gets worse, they end up getting pennies on a dollar for him.

[HakunaSakata]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Just more posturing…. If he goes to spring training with them he’s likely held until someone is desperate or the deadline. Unless he’s pitching at his 2022 level or close his value goes down. If it’s not posturing Getz is playing with fire. 

I doubt it's posturing, but I strongly disagree with the sentiment that the White Sox can afford to be patient. The odds of Cease actually pitching well enough to offset the depreciating value of his remaining contract time are very small IMO. 

 

[emmett16]

I think the CWS fools need to take a peak at Hernaiz and get a feel for what a not top 10 player out of the O’s system can do.  They aren’t getting anyone in the top 10 (except maybe Ortiz) let alone multiple guys in the top 10.  Can’t wait for this nonsense to be over. 

Just heard an interview with Hermaiz on Majors & Minors on MLB Network radio.  Kid has a good head on his shoulders.  I’m still a little salty, he was one of my favorites guys in the system.  Glad to see he’s doing so well, though. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I doubt it's posturing, but I strongly disagree with the sentiment that the White Sox can afford to be patient. The odds of Cease actually pitching well enough to offset the depreciating value of his remaining contract time are very small IMO. 

 

They can be patient for the next 6 weeks.  

[RZNJ]

Seems like teams aren’t buying into the easy mechanical fixes.   The ask, two top 100 prospects and two other prospects doesn’t seem crazy to me.

The majority here voted Cowser and Ortiz was ok.  There’s your two top 100.